Albedoman

Pattern change 6-12" 2/14-17 time period

while all of you are worried about the next 2-6 inch snow event, I am telling you all right now and I have been saying this for two months, being laughed and joked about is the potential for record breaking Ice jams on the Delaware and other rivers that are going to be FEMA disaster damaging. Even the Little Lehigh creek IMBY which is 85% spring fed and has been never frozen in my entire 40 years that I have lived year, is frozen solid. That is bad folks. Ice jam warnings will be issued because you all know that one good warm spell will be coming toward Presidents Day. How bad is this situation now? As a member of the EOC in Lehigh County and a Township manager this situation is becoming pretty fricking serious right now. Need proof? Well here you go in the link below that is not public knowledge. Also , nobody is talking about saltwater intrusion on the Delaware right now? Many muncipalities may be out of drinking water real soon with the ice jams as water relases cannot be performed. As of late 2024 and early 2025, saltwater intrusion on the Delaware River has been a concern due to low freshwater inflows, with the salt front shifting upstream towards the Philadelphia International Airport. While it has reached positions similar to 2016 levels, management efforts, including reservoir releases, are actively managing salinity levels. Location of Salt Front: The salt front has moved approximately 20 miles north of its typical position, closer to Philadelphia, PA, and Camden, NJ. Cause: Driven by drought conditions and reduced freshwater flow, allowing for higher upstream migration of sea salt. Action Taken: The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is using water from upstream reservoirs to push the salt front back down. Water Quality: Despite the intrusion, officials have been able to protect drinking water intakes, although the situation requires active management. https://view.em.silvi.com/?vawpToken=RX366I5XGK2UVGXG6FTSFNFRJE.130014

without proper data sampling, this model watching is useless. The NYC forum posters are jumping of the Verazzano right now after tonights runs. If the 12Z models tomorrow do show some slight improvment, this will be a fish storm. I would want to see the OZ NAM run tommorrow night at 72 hours. IF the LP is at the benchmark then, game on. Going to bed

Jan 2016 is the best comparison 96 was a differnent animal as it dug in more with the trough and sucked up the GOA moisture too

the most appropriate video clip for all of us right now----rolling rolling keep those doggies coming

Albedo man says-- Ain't going to do jack shit - pessimistic attitude gotta love it? LOL

This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again. I am done with snow for awhile. A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro, ice jams. The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees. The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it. The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

This mix should be this way until 9pm as the secondary starts wrapping up. As it pulls away 2-4 in may happen in the LV. Then comes the serious drifting and really cold temps again

back to snow nice flakes Over a foot now.

Just kidding. I was criticized a few days of this threat and many posters said i was off my rocker that this was not going to be a problem. They will find out the hard way tommorow evening when the blowing snow may keep the schools closed Tuesday too.

what drifting? LOL

what? that blowing and drifting must not supposed to happen according to many of the posters I am shocked. LMAO

6.5 in so far. Just went out plowed the first round here in macungie

they all are shoveling BS --why in the hell would anyone would even listen to them on this board is beyond me. so called weather gurus hogwash. They would not even know what derecho or a haboob is. They simply regurgitate NWS info for 1000 grand or more a year in a camera. OnlyChannel 10 Mr Schwartz -retired and I knew him personally has a weather background that is worth listening too

I said this in many of my posts the last 3 days that it would sleet in the heavier bands. Standing well over 4 inches at the house and snowing heavily

Pixie dust light snow here in macungie

VD 2007 Berks County all over again.

I agree- its the others but it will be a mess for sure

I love this analysis and I would love to see this report after each winters storm event over 6 inches. MOdel reliability would be the issue and not using wild speculating clown maps. Hope others think the same way. Lets get thoss HRRR maps up now and it appears the Euro is the model to look at.

I think we need to have a contest on where the sleet line actually sets up in and around the LV. I would like to see if Physical geography has a big play in this storm event. South Mtn and Blue Mtn usually plays some intregral part. Overall though 1-2 inches of sleet is just going to make the snow weigh more when shoveling/plowing. We will still have serious drifting issues in Northern areas of the Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Like you have said, I would love to see the forcing/banding be extended for a long period of time in the afternoon with thundersnow potential. . Honestly, many snow weenies want the most snow accumalations in the forum but after a foot of snow and inch or two of sleet after the big thumping of snow is eventually going to pack down or go through the fluffy snow and create one hell of a driving nightmare on the road surfaces since salt cannot work in these lower temps. Everyone screams about lowering snowfall accumalations, but its the road surface conditions that will determine the nightmare of this storm event. This storm reminds me so much of 1994 where it will be on the road for days with the extreme cold and everyone trying to drive in the ruts because the rest of the road surface is fricking ice covered compacted snow and sleet nightmare. I had to endure that for over a week and believe me it was not fun. Every intersection in and around Hamilton Blvd and Rt 78 was a living nightmare as making left turns in ruts was an ice skating rink. Can you imagine now 30 years later with all of the devleopment and congestion what Brookside and Hamilton will be like now?

I told the promary to slow down racing north to get a pitcher of beer to reload. LMAO

It follows S Mtn folks. Everything Southeast of hereford on rt 29 into east greenville will be the sleet line. Seen this so many many fricking times

Swinging for another storm next weekend and it is miss on tonight OZ runs. by 200 miles

Yes the LV has been burned many times Duncan892 with warm nose intrusions, but that is to be expected in the LV, but not this time. The Quebec high is too strong. The sleet line will be around th eMid Montgomery Bucks lines on the other side of the S mtn range. If we do get any ice, it will be sleet mixed in with the heavier bands of snow or freezing drizzle. This only comes with experience with doing this for 40+ years and seeing every historical pounding snowstorm the LV has received since 1983 most infamous dumping where we got 5" inches in one hour and ended up with 23 inches.