Albedoman

the youngsters in this forum have no concept of dominating and sustainable undesirable climatic patterns like in the late 60's to mid 70's. Winter did not exist for the NE. Yearly droughts were abundant. Because a few idiots that have no science background but have big mouths in the media forum shout at the top of their lungs that it is global warming, they are gullible and all simply wrong. Just wait until the SJS and NJS start colliding again in the deep south with a consistent deeper troughing pattern running up the coast for 10-15 days. Lets see the naysayers get buried in 2-3 feet of snow for weeks on end with below normal temps. . I remember all of the Miller A storm events that have virtually disappeared in the last 10-15 years that were in abundance in the 90's. They will come back. This last winter storm event for the Tn Valley this week was the first time in many years that we had an LP form in SE Texas only to become a southern slider. The trough over us was just too deep with confluence winds. Wait until it relaxes somewhat after MLK. If the LP's keep on forming in SE Texas, all this crap talk about climate warming will go away. Just imagine if this pattern was to stick around for the entire month of Feb?

Hey guys, two major sinkholes in the last two days one in Hanover Township near the LVI airport- took out a bunch of homes and the video below in philly. Its only going to get worse like I said late last week with this drought. The groundwater tables are falling like a rock with frozen topsoil layers https://www.itemfix.com/v?t=kn547p

I agree. When the SE ridge comes back, so will the storms running toward us. Why? The rex block in the SW pac off of California will finally begin to break down after next week too less wildfires in LA too. This will create more troughs in the US and less progressive weather patterns. Lets just hope the cold air sticks around too at the same time First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December... January 3 I said this same thing yesterday. The confluence will hopefully weaken a little as the LP moves slightly northeast of the projected path possibly creating higher snow ratios for the LV. This storm will also be remembered for ushering into our area the very windy and dry cold weather for the entire week. Freeze up the lakes and river time. Ice jams later in Jan/Feb? Hope people have humidifiers in their houses and a lot of chapstick as baby the static electricity will be unreal. The heating bill will skyrocket after this week. Saturday at 02:27 PM

OH shit, have to bring out the leaf blower again for Saturday. I have literally blown more leaves the last week or so than pixie dust snow. The pixie dust has evaporated away already. Refresh with another .05 in of snow is going to bury me on Saturday morning. I might have to break out the broom.

too many posters have not experienced the late 60's weather patterns with the lack of a decent winter storm pattern, no internet and modelogy with six hour runs.. Nothing surprises me the last 3-5 years with the extremes with these storm events as well. All I can say is be patient. The title of the thread should have been "southern sliders or southern comfort - your choice|" Good food with a good drink can create an atmosphere which is needed in this confluence dominating pattern for the youngsters.

Hell I am even pissed. Its going to snow in Memphis for a 4+ inches warning event and we get jack shite here. These confluence driven winds are killing us literally. I have never seen 3-4 days of blustery winds in a row here in the forecast. To make matters worse, it is cold and dry. The snow on my driveway is literally melting in the sunshine and immediately evaporating away with the dry winds in front of my eyes. Do not even have to use a shovel or salt, just a broom. How bad is this scenario? The salt in the parking lots and driveways are still crystallized and have not turned into brine, thus dragging the salt into all of the buildings/ stores and houses. Have not seen this in many years. I am shocked business have not said much as cleaning companies for carpet and hardwood floors are going to have a banner spring. Thats how dam dry it is. This drought is really becoming an issue again folks. The band aid rains we had after Christmas have done little to nothing to recharge the existing ground water tables and only enabled us to maintain a low stream flow in the non-limestone streams. Now all of these non limestone streams, lakes and ponds are so low, they are freezing up bigtime. I am telling you all that unless we get a 12+ snow storm in our area, this spring is going to be really bad for irrigating and even fishing, not to mention wells drying up. The drought watches will be extended into the spring for sure. Worst of all, sinkholes are going to open again in February with the lowering of the groundwater tables.

I posted this on Christmas Eve: MIller A potentials setting up by mid January. For the first time in 5+ years, I see GOM lows forming off the SE Texas coast in the LR modeling. The 4 corner lows are dipping down into Mexico , going west into the GOM and sucking up the moisture from the GOM, then heading NE. Hope this pattern keeps up. Rule of thumb for the newbies- If it snows in Memphis/Dallas, we usually get 6+ in of snow here. With the lows forming and deepening in Southern MS, we stand a good chance of seeing this scenario unfold. December 24, 2024 This pro thinks a lot like me. The Euro tends to hold back the LP in the Gulf of California way too long. I believe it does this as a clear bias too as I believe it is waiting for the ocean buoy data to catch up to land mass data too while running the model. This pro has been around to know Dr Sobel and others who I also followed while earning my physical geography/atmospheric concentration degree in the early 80's. Notice , he emphasizes the Dallas to Memphis setup in his video as well. This comes from knowing historical weather pattern setups for major eastern winter storms and just not relying on individual model runs.

all this 12Z GFS run tells me that a snow event will happen. that is likely more than 6 inches if everything lines up perfectly. Its a dam shame that even a basic dying La Nina pattern storm has to be considered a thread the needle storm event as these LP's are constantly going progressive coming across the country. A good kicker would really help this time.

posters these days want a foot or more for this event which is not going to happen. Many are wishful kids that have little background in meteorology and love to critique weather models, no matter what the range the computer model was originally designed for. You and I just want to see frozen precip on the other hand and try to use whatever SR model fits the bill for the existing pattern and or storm event. Basically many posters have no weather history of actually experiencing the formation and outcome of a winter storm in certain patterns using modelogy patterns. Thats why many do not respond to me in a positive limelight. For example, If they even knew what a "travelers advisory" really meant and how storms evolved without the internet by simply trying to interpret weather models with only physics or a meteorological background 30 = years ago, many posters would be on this board right now at 3 am like you and me. Thats the true weather historic experience. and not simply regurgitating their opinion -wishcasting- on a LR only weather model within 24 hours of the storm event. This video clip below is what I experienced before the NWS changed the winter warning system. and makes me LOL. Travelers advisory- now called winter weather advisory -really meant no traveling should take place no matter how much ice or snow and was set at a top range 4" or less everywhere especially before a winter storm warning was issued. That is where the word" plowable " came from too as most municipalities set the depth of snow to 3" or more before plowing. We need to go back to the way it was. The winter warnings system are now too convoluted with too much specific criteria to the average intelligence of the non scientific community now who have never taken any geography or weather courses in school. Specifically winter storm criteria of six inches is set way too high as it is now nearly double the amount of plowable snow depth for local municipalities . A winter storm warning criteria should go back to 4" everywhere. In other words, the average Joe blow has no idea what the NWS criteria is for the issuance of a winter storm today and really does not care. But a plow driver/municipalities sure do and these guys were left out of the picture when these NWS warning decisions were made in the last 20 years. Thats why I track and rely on weather history to formulate my forecast for my family and friends.

My final call remains from 2 days ago- 2-4" for the LV . Hoping for lollipops and higher ratios which would be nice. Norlun trough? My real hopes starts on the 11th - a real plow buster of snow events in the works for the next two weeks. The best thing happening in the models which absolutley nobody has dwelled on right now - at least 15- 30 days of continous snow cover is a good bet - a real winter in my book that I have not seen in a decade.

I said this same thing yesterday. The confluence will hopefully weaken a little as the LP moves slighlty northeast of the projected path possibly creating higher snow ratios for the LV. This storm will also be rembembered for ushering into our area the very windy and dry cold weather for the entire week. Freeze up the lakes and river time. Ice jams later in Jan/Feb? Hope people have humidifiers in their houses and alot of chapstick as baby the static electricity will be unreal. The heating bill will skyrocket after this week.

Yes, 12 hours ago. Gfs forget it

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period.

I will repeat for the naysayers below. Analyze all you want. Tonights 's 0z runs will be exciting for most of you. Has been a few years waiting. The NAM will be the usual suspect. The northward trend at the end of the run is very promising for the philly area. Posted 12 hours ago I have repeatly posted the last 3-5 days, plz wait until the 0z runs tonight. Thats where the W PAC data gets really ingested into the models for the first time. Anyone analyzing every 4-6 hour model run will work themselves into an utter panic attack. This is from 30+ years of modelology experience. Tomorrow nights 0z runs should be quite exciting after this clipper swings by and leaves a trail of bread crumbs to follow for the next snow event. Thats where the true path should come to fruition for next weeks storm.

I have repeatly posted the last 3-5 days, plz wait until the 0z runs tonight. Thats where the W PAC data gets really ingested into the models for the first time. Anyone analyzing every 4-6 hour model run will work themselves into an utter panic attack. This is from 30+ years of modelology experience. Tomorrow nights 0z runs should be quite exciting after this clipper swings by and leaves a trail of bread crumbs to follow for the next snow event. Thats where the true path should come to fruition for next weeks storm.

Firts of all, as I stated yesterday, tomorrow nights Oz run will tell us what we will get. The Pac buoy data will be ingested and will show us how much moisture streams NE. Right now it looks like zippo- just like the other crap we have had in December- cross your fingers that the ealier Euro runs hold 3-5 days ago. Noy good for ending the drought thats for sure Yes Red Sky is spot on- time if the sky clears out, Aurora time. You all should check this site veryday. Flares do affect us https://spaceweather.com/

nice t storms tonight. This was even better than a 2-4 inch snow event. Times a changing now.

I am sticking to 3-5 days out analysis when the W Pac buoy data gets ingested into the models. No sense even lookig at the LR models now until Jan 2. Now is the time when the Euro and GFS will lose the storms or they get squashed by supression or some other model performance stunt as this is beginnning of a really major upcoming pattern change The 0z run on Thursday morning might show what will really happen going into this new pattern. Anything on the models now is just where the pattern is leaning. The cold temps after this pattern gets set in is what concerns me. I see a huge CAD event aiming for us toward the 20th time frame in our area as these LP's are finally to form along the SE Texas coast as stated in an earlier post with the deep cold and a potential deep snow pack in place. I do not like ice storms like 94. Salt shortages may become an issue again by mid February if this cold pattern stays put This potential salt situation reminds me of the TP hoarding syndrome in 2020 with COVID. A lot of salt will be needed with the cold temps in place unlike previous years. Many municipalities will be ordering more salt which will become problematic as these same municiplaities will be ordering the salt at the same time. Be prepared for long lines at the car washes on sunnier warmer days and salt being gone at places like home depot. This situation with the deep cold/snow pack is exactly what I stated several months ago that would occur when I said the La Nina was weakening going into a neutral pattern. Many posters disagreed. I go by past weather history patterns and events , not just modelology. All it takes is a major pattern change and that is coming next week. The drought conditions are finally but slowly starting to relax now has ralso eally demonstrated this weakening LA Nina pattern too as this new pattern neutrality will eventually break the current drought by the end of Feburary.

The 3-5 trusted w pac buoy data has not even been ingested at 10 days. I will not take until five days from the event I have been burned plenty of times.

Hey guys, look at this evenings 18Z GFS run. Looks like Dallas to Memphis gets some snow in week or so and oh wait 6 in + for us too. Now where did I hear that scenario before? LOL I love the memphis discussion below for tonight. It is a dream forecast for me to hear booming t- storms at Christmas Hell , we could not even squeeze out one decent t- storm here all last summer with any booming thunder and they get it in the winter. What slap in the face for us. .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Shortwave ridging across the region has allowed mostly dry conditions across the area today. These dry conditions will be short lived as a low pressure system will return showers and thunderstorms later this evening. Depicted on deterministic soundings, a steep inversion will be over the Mid-South this evening. This inversion will keep the gusty winds from mixing to the surface as well as limit surface based instability. A maritime tropical airmass has struggled to move over the region with this inversion as dewpoint depressions are still around 10 degrees or more at this hour. The severe weather threat tonight is very marginal at best. The thunder, however, will be intensified due to the inversion, so prepare for loud thunder to awake you overnight. While the severe threat is limited, heavy rain is still a concern. Precipitable water (PW) values will be in the 90th percentile (around 1.3") for this time of year. Highest rainfall totals will be along and west of the Mississippi River hovering around 2".

MIller A potentials setting up by mid January. For the first time in 5+ years, I see GOM lows forming off the SE Texas coast in the LR modeling. The 4 corner lows are dipping down into Mexico , going west into the GOM and sucking up the moisture from the GOM, then heading NE. Hope this pattern keeps up. Rule of thumb for the newbies- If it snows in Memphis/Dallas, we usually get 6+ in of snow here. With the lows forming and deepening in Southern MS, we stand a good chance of seeing this scenrio unfold. Lets hope that the CAD situation like 94 does not come a problem if a portion of the Vortex breaks off and hits first. I would love to see a +PNA and at the same time the GOM lows start producing, then the potential for major snow events increases exponentially. Yes, this morning is a local traffic nighmare. The salters came by, did not even melt the residential roads. Hopefully when the sun comes out in a few hours, things will change. Red Sky, I am glad you got your white christmas. Never give up. I went over the Green Lane reservoir yesterday, I was sick to see how far it is down right now. The drought lives on. What water remains is frozen, thus no runoff storage possible from any rains after Christmas. The soil is like concrete right now. We really need a 3 inch rain with 50 degree temps after the New Year before the next major snow event.

I will be the first to say that if you are traveling Tuesday morning anywhere in the LV, please wait. Mt Holly has stated no advisories will be necessary issued as it does not meet the criteria( LOL) but they will be criticized come Tuesday morning as a potential 1-2 in snowfall will be a traveling disaster. Why? The roads will be so cold that any snow that falls will imediatley stick. A simple one inch snow on frozen road surfaces where salt will not work is way worse than a 3-4 in snow on warm roads with brine/salt like this past event. Brine will not work and placing salt down will not work. Drivers are also not used to driving on coated and extemely cold road surfaces and accidents will be everywhere. I urge Mt Holly to rethink this situation. A MIllion people now live in the LV where the freight capital of the US exists with the thousands of trucks running through the area. Salt does not work below 20 degrees on road surfaces. Its been over four days of temps below 32 degrees and with temps below 20 degrees for 2-3 days. Todays high will be in the low to mid 20's and the overnight lows tonight will be in the upper teens. After becoming cloudy by this afternnon, no chance of the road temps going up. You make your own choice but for me, I am staying off the roads until the sun comes out on Tuesday afternoon. These are the silly games of meeting criteria for advisories that NOAA needs to wake up on. Temps do matter regardless of the amount of snowfall. Case closed.

well Red Sky, you will have your white Christmas like I had promised. The big snow event was last night and not on Christmas eve/day . As I said my earlier posts days ago, if their was a decent snow pack, we would have below zero overnight lows. Well Monday morning wil be a dandy with temp below zero at my house and for many in the LV. I expect a 1-2 inch refresh of the snow pack on Christmas Eve and then it is off to big time moderation with lots of rain maybe an ice storm. This MAJOR pattern change coming up may lead to some decent snow events in mid january

3-4 inches in Macungie right now. still snowing