kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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Seems we are in unprecedented territory here. So what likelihood is there that Dorian is so strong he is creating his own trajectory or impacting other steering currents to the point where models cant "see" it until it is too late? If he chews up another 100 miles westerly a LF is all but certain into FL.
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So basically 17k people are getting ready to endure a tsunami higher than their land mass and 175mph+ winds for a few hours. Not your run of the mill Sunday. Prayers, well wishes, thoughts, whatever you choose, for them all. Was there even an evacuation effort? I didnt hear of one.
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I was just looking at that as well. If we wake tomorrow and Dorian is still tracking due west, the entire right side of the forecast track is a moot point. He's going to LF in FL if only by a few miles. Light steering currents arent going to turn a Cat 5 on a dime.
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Me: Watches YT video about RC's island that said those giant water slides were built to withstand Cat4 winds. Dorian: Hold my beer. Bahamas going to look a little different after this weekend I'm afraid.
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Save the $300. Better yet, don't even order one yet. Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year. But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall. Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston. I'd play the waiting game on this one.
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Who declared summer over?? (Let me be the first to thank you!) 63° and breezy!!?? Win!
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As unfortunate as it is, yes, yes I did know that. I endure this miserable heat every day and countdown my weekends until October. Almost there!
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What Triad is this you speak of? My Triad has had plenty of 90s??
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You never know....see Solak's post above from August 8th where NOAA increased chances for an above normal season. It could get wild in Oct/Nov given SSTs. The fuel is there. You just need the pattern to tap it.
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Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter
kvegas-wx replied to Iceagewhereartthou's topic in Southeastern States
Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March. It's not that hard Mother Nature. It's just not that hard. -
We are also at that point in time when the late afternoon heat isn't quite as intense. As long as you stay in the office during the mid-day hours you can still mow the lawn after supper without frying. Mid-day 90s quickly drop to low 80's and upper 70's which ain't bad. Another 3-4 weeks and those 7am bus stops will be far more enjoyable. Hang on friends, those 90 day winter outlooks will be coming into range very soon!
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So much for that August "polar vortex". Looks like it is skipping off to the Northeast leaving us with basically normal temps, maybe a couple degrees cooler, and dry here in the triad. I'm just going to wait for mid-Sept to cash in my chips for a cool and crispy, leaf crunching fall.
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I didnt think the sandhills would be that far behind the triad but you are correct. Went and looked at the averages and you are a solid 3-4 weeks behind us through Sept/Oct. I need some 50's soon!
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Daily Hi/Lo averages across the triad and most of the carolinas dont really fall much in August. September is the cliff. Drops from mid 80's down to low 70's for Highs and down into the low 50' for lows. So not much relief....yet. But certainly a pause from 90's for many.
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Lol. Making the analogy only to point out that any system that develops in this region, and in the absence of limiting factors, has an undisturbed massive heat source available with these record SSTs. A named storm could go thru an RI cycle across the gulfstream and go from TD to Cat 4 or 5 in just a couple of days. Not unprecedented when conditions are pristine.
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Without limiting factors this could be Katrina in 8 days given the SSTs right now. So the focus should be on what prevents development vs whether or not there will be development. This is going to be an interesting next 90 days in the tropics.
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It's way too early to be worried about cold and snow but what is all this nonsense popping up in my Youtube feeds about August cold, amazing fall snow totals, polar vortexes and the like?? You would think winter starts tomorrow and its going to be epic! I think once I clicked on one video Youtube turned my recommendations into weather weenie central.
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Those folks in that line just south of the Triad are having an interesting day. I posted earlier thinking the hammer was about to drop again just north of I40 and we didnt get a drop. Towers went up right outside my back door and then crept south. But as others have mentioned, what a difference in temps!! 78°, cloudy and a slight breeze. Gotta mow!
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And once again the hammer is getting dropped on Forsyth County. I've been trying to mow my yard for 4 days now. Non-moving thunderstorm blowing up overhead as we speak. Deluge inbound.
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Fantastic! I'll be in Jacksonville FL all week. Looks to be the hottest place on the planet. Just what I needed. I must be in a microclimate here in Forsyth County the last week or so. It seems like it has rained every day. Its raining now! We had FFWs in Winston 2 nights ago. I dont need much more rain right now, but I'm sure many do. 13 weeks to October. Countdown underway.......
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Hasnt been created in our forum yet. May be one in the LA, TX and west forum. Probably not much for us to track here other than a general discussion. If Barry decides to shift towards the apps and spin for a while it will get much more interesting.
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Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi. A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city. Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early. No excuses this time around.
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Seeing some hints around the interwebs of a cooler than normal, less humid spell coming in the 10 day range. I'm so dang busy I have no time to play in the weather, much less watch models, so I'll leave it to the experts here. Any truth to this coming July Ice Age?
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74° at 6:30am can only mean one thing.....my back deck is going to be a blast furnace by 10am. Ugh! I cannot express enough how much I hate summer heat.
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When that storm came through Kernersville earlier today the wind was strong enough to blow the rain bands out ahead of the storm. It was raining sideways with the sun still out for about a minute. Havent seen that before.
