CheeselandSkies

That little green hole near/north of the Abacos and Grand Bahama... Still, presumably quite a bit smaller than it was 10 days ago.

Monday night/Tuesday morning I was driving in to work (3:00 AM start, lived in an apartment a block away from my work until the end of August but am staying with my gf at her current place across town until our new lease starts on the 14th) in a torrential downpour most of the way. Saw the lights of a utility truck in the distance as I turned onto the street. As I got closer I saw that it was half blocking our employee driveway. A big tree had come down taking out some power lines. We were on generator power and my old apartment building was blacked out. More storms this morning, sun's out now with a blue box in effect for an expected later round. So far September feels stormier than May and June in this neck of the woods!

SPC says "meh" with just a marginal risk in place for Day 2. Keeping an eye on Wednesday locally but would like to see the front slow down a tad so it doesn't end up a LP of Michigan event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

...and Wisconsin.

As they say in Ireland..."Whale oil beef hooked!"

That year we actually had some decent tornado events (not including Iowa troll days) in this part of the country by the end of May. Particularly the 10th and 30th.

Has it dying out and missing me to the west.

It's early, but I have yet to see anything strongly suggesting EF4 damage, let alone EF5.

That figures, on a day when I and most others were expecting the typical problem of the WF getting hung up to the south to be the fly in the ointment (if there was one).

Some (myself included) are finding the dense clustery convection (even with strong UH streaks) apparent on the HRRR and 3KM NAM concerning for chaseable tornado potential. I'll re-post what I just posted on ST Discord: I admit I often fail to do this enough, so let's go through some of the factors that usually lead to the convective mess/quick upscale growth the CAMs are hinting at. Low-mid level VBV? Not really seeing it. Shear vectors parallel to the initiating boundary? Not that I'm seeing. Too much forcing for too little capping? Possibly. Any others I'm missing? Although regarding the forcing, isn't that usually a problem with a very strong synoptic system? Per mesoanalysis, this SFC low should be deepening with time (a positive if you want storms), but not getting TOO deep (~1000MB), which might actually lead to a higher significant tornado threat.

It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while.

Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.

Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

I was driving through that on my way back from my lovely (sarcasm) Oklahoma chase on Monday. Did wonders for my fuel economy I'm sure and almost pushed me off the road several times. Couldn't stay out there for today and tomorrow due to having to be back at work starting 3 AM tomorrow morning.

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

That would be funny if it hadn't actually already happened. RIP TS/PS/CY. The weird and especially sad thing is, for those guys that wasn't their chasing style at all.

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.

Hot diggity. ...and yeah, I've never understood exactly what separates a "PDS" warning from a TORE. I would guess proximity to a populated area, but I have seen "PDS" warnings used instead even when the couplet looked to be approaching a town/city.

If a 5/3/99-like event occurred every time it popped up as an analog on a forecast sounding, every human settlement in Oklahoma and Kansas would have been leveled several times over by now. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

It's almost all for MCS junk.

I give up. We don't get significant tornado outbreaks anymore. Mother Nature is just trying to drown us.

DDC/Chapman in 2016, maybe? And even those days were kind of subtle in the medium to long range. My eyes were on that Thursday when the main trough was progged to finally eject into the warm sector. However (surprise surprise) it turned into a VBV-plagued convective crapfest.

I didn't used to mind but this decade particularly the latter half has gotten me to that point. I officially hate living in Wisconsin.

Naturally.

Why has this spring been such trash? I thought it would be better since we didn't have the awful late winter SSWE. Is it all down to the -NAO?