CheeselandSkies

This one looks like it could get it done. Either way, should be a nice photogenic supercell to be on.

There's always gotta be one...

Well, that alone would work against a 2012 analog, at least in this part of the country, lol.

Elaborate, please.

Just anecdotally 2012 was way worse by this point already, although I don't remember the percentages.

Since I do not pay to access the EURO soundings on Pivotal, my analysis has been limited to the GFS which has been intent on showing a very deep trough with strongly meridional 500mb flow, and a more subdued ceiling for the event as a result. The Euro also appears to show a secondary surface low in SE NE with a warm front extending into Iowa (and the GFS, for all its flaws with the setup as portrayed, has been consistently showing some of the strongest warm sector instability over N IL/WI/MN/IA), so it could be a potential regional chase for me since I get out of work at noon Tuesday and have Wednesday off.

We'll see how much action happens in this sub, GFS has consistently been very amped with the trough next Tuesday/Wednesday resulting in highly meridional 500mb flow. It has also been consistent with wanting to get the moist sector pretty far north yet showing large areas of it with nil SBCAPE.

Just had a brief but vigorous snow shower here. No accumulations that I can see but visibility was kind of dicey there for a minute. @madwx

Pretty...in N/D/J/F. You can keep it.

I agree, but isn't that the system with the Day 4-5 outlooks currently for Friday/Saturday?

Hope that doesn't extend to potential severe systems as well (mid-next week). Although, that trough as modeled ATTM (at least on the deterministic GFS and the one Euro run I looked at) is actually a little TOO amped for quality chase-type severe in this neck of the woods, so...

Also noting that the PDS tornado watch included southern Wisconsin, but as usual the state line acted like a brick wall for severe convection.

Low of 31 today, but the record for the day is 21 set only in 2018, so it has been worse and not all that long ago. That year is still the worst April in my adult memory (narrowly edging out 2014), but the fact that every one since seems to have tried to challenge it is not good.

Remember those were a thing in April in the Midwest? I guess Rochelle wasn't that long ago...I try to block it out though since the atmosphere practically tried to gift-wrap it for me and I still managed to not catch it.

Still boggles my mind that such a historically violent storm system took place with a.) almost no forecast lead time from the models/SPC, and b.) in such an overall down year for severe weather activity.

Dig that right photo.

I seem to remember the May 2006 snow but I was in Green Bay for school then so it didn't seem as objectionable.

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started: 4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this: Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

100%

@andyhb bringing some hope over on Stormtrack: https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/state-of-the-chase-season-2021.31689/post-371308

Is that Moore, OK or Tanner, AL?

Depressingly common in recent years...May too.

Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something. Last few GFS runs have shown signs of life toward the end of the month but suggest it may be mostly Dixie again...some possibility the Southern Plains get in on the action per the current (14/06Z) run. Not prime time for us yet, but it shouldn't be this much of a nail-biter. As @beavis1729 likes to say about cold and snow in D/J/F, you shouldn't need a bunch of indices to line up just right for potential in A/M/J. You really need an absolutely hostile pattern to prevent it from happening...but amazingly it seems that's what we have been getting more often than not these past few years. It seems the only "season" that's really reliable anymore is hurricanes in A/S/O (except in 2013, lol).

Of course, 12Z is back to