CheeselandSkies

SPC with the bump to 5%.

Chief met at my employer was hitting the "t" word rather hard for tomorrow during our Morning Show...ironic since SPC has it at "less than 2% all areas." He must be jumpy after Saturday.

Now some more recent runs show stronger stuff and of course they put it IN the Chicago metro...

HRRR is still rather meh. 00Z/06Z 3KM NAM remain intriguing. Haven't seen that combo of CAM solutions for awhile...usually they're flip-flopped from that.

Literal Rochelle 2.0, lol. Unless I'm missing something, the UDH on the HRRR isn't really that alarming. It was showing phat red/purple streaks in Iowa on 7/14 for example, or even for yesterday's Boscobel tornado although it placed that simulated sup too far NE at least on the run I saw. However, I've noticed you can't really key in on that particular product until the day of, especially with these mesoscale-driven summer events. Then further out, 3KM NAM's scenario for Tuesday does not exactly jive well with SPC's Day 3 outlook.

Meanwhile, it's toward the end of its run but 3KM NAM paints a rather volatile environment over eastern Iowa/SW WI again Tuesday evening. Another Grant County (terrible terrain) special? Stay tooned!

I headed out after it after seeing that radar signature, unfortunately that's in a really bad terrain area. I intercepted it near Dodgeville, saw an ominous shelf cloud as it was starting to gust/bow out at that time but still had a pronounced couplet buried in the rain. I got into some blinding rain and got smacked by a few hailstones heading back east on 151, pulled off at Barneveld (of 1984 F5 infamy) and waited for things to pass before heading home as things had completely lined out by then.

Tor!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1434.html Edit: Appears to already be a small supercell approaching Seneca/Gays Mills, with a pronounced couplet.

Nope. A couple of those earlier storms to the northwest have shown some transient/low-end supercell characteristics on radar, but have quickly collapsed. Looks like some slight clearing over far SW WI. We'll see if it's enough. EDIT: Latest HRRR puts a beefy sup through southern Marquette/northern Columbia Counties around 00Z (7 PM CDT). Based on observed trends I think it's too far north and east with that, if anything like that forms at all.

Severe warned cell moving into Sauk County looks to have a bit of broad rotation with it. Might head up to do a little spotting (didn't really consider today a "chase" day) if it holds together.

They did, had a severe warning about an hour ago. Storm was nearly stationary and appeared to take on brief supercell characteristics with a NW-SE orientation to the reflectivity pattern. It's essentially died out over the same spot.

Wish they'd have built like 10 miles further west . Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

It's at the end of its run and as @Chicago Storm said, it's an inherently low predictability setup, but... 12Z NAM STP/EHI for Monday afternoon evening...yes please.

MKX's afternoon AFD... So they seem to agree with SPC's thinking over the last few days of the possibility for two rounds in the Sun-Tue period. July/August picking up the slack for May/June, at least for some parts of the sub.

Starting to delve into the timeframe of interest... 18Z GFS suggests the possibility of another large MCS riding the instability gradient into WI Sunday night/early Monday. That shortwave brings 500mb westerlies near 50kt. Not too shabby for August.

Interestingly, positive PDO was attributed as a main reason some of the tornado seasons in the early-mid 2010s were rather lackluster. Now we have a negative PDO but this A/M/J was similarly quiescent in the Plains/Midwest. Thoughts @andyhb?

Still hinting at it... Personally I haven't yet looked at any model output for this time frame.

Next one, or two may be on the "radar," so to speak:

Update: MKX surveyed four EF0-1 paths from Cross Plains to Verona from 12:39-12:57 AM Thursday. They call it four tornadoes (I probably would call it one with an intermittent/multivortex structure, not unlike the Shell Rock-Waverly, IA one from 7/14). Tornado warning never issued on this cell despite couplet and rather obvious embedded supercell reflectivity structure, thus never received WEA. Wouldn't have woken up (except perhaps by thunder) if not for Madison deciding to blow the sirens. By the time this happened, the tornado(es) had already passed to my west and the Verona tornado was in progress to my south and a few minutes from lifting. Between that and being on the aforementioned Shell Rock/Waverly storm, although as usual blowing a great opportunity to get much better shots of the tornado, July was pretty rockin' for me. Goosebumps Girls' pleas were heard.

Yikes, yeah MN and north-central IA are getting bad while WI, northern IL and eastern IA have improved.

It's called July. Edit: Make that July with a suppressive MJO for the Atlantic.

Must have all moved south with the storms. Never noticed it particularly bad this year, until yesterday. We've had a long stretch of those red dot sunrises/sunsets, but at least the sky has been blue until then. Worst smoke haze I've ever seen is still May 20, 2019 in Oklahoma. I couldn't see the updraft tower/base of the Mangum supercell when it was less than 5 miles away.

Looks like it should be sunny but the sky is milky white. I think this is the worst I've seen it so far this year.

Business end of a pretty obvious embedded supercell missed me just to the southwest.