CheeselandSkies

That trough on the 126 hour GFS valid for Wednesday evening tho...would put tomorrow to shame if anything close to that verifies. Still a ways out, though.

Currently, the only T-warned cell looks like a QLCS mesovortex and is moving into a bad radar hole. It's one of the several situations around the country where they need to just draw a quadrilateral between KSHV, KPOE, KDGX, and KLZK and place another radar smack dab in the center (not going to happen under the current administration).

Ballsy call by the SPC to introduce a risk area for Day 6. I thought they were being overly bearish holding off on a Day 5 risk area last Thursday valid for today given what the Euro was advertising, but they ended up being spot-on. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Amen to that. From '12 through '17, the rule was quality over quantity. Then '17 flipped that on its head. Still waiting for the next event that has a Pilger, Dodge City, Rozel, Bennington, Rochelle-Fairdale, Vilonia, and Elmer-Tipton all lined up from the triple point on down the dryline. Of course, I'd be singing a different tune had I not been one mistake away from missing both Pilger and Rochelle. Add to that, I could have chased February 28th of this year but committed to helping a buddy do clean-up/repair work at the condo he was moving out of because hey, it was FEBRUARY in Wisconsin/northern Illinois. What were the chances, really? Then the upper Midwest essentially shut down during peak season except for that one day in mid-May (the 17th?) which I chased. It featured some of the most insane speed shear seen in that time of year in a long time but something still seemed wonky and the storms had trouble really getting going...then there was June 28th which I also chased but was limited in how far I could go by work constraints and all the quality tornadoes occurred west of my range.

This, so much. Biggest model fail I've personally seen in regards to severe. I'm used to the GFS spitting out lol fantasy storms anytime beyond about 100 hours for severe, winter and tropical but when the Euro was on board I was hearing "Humans Being" in my head. Totally killed my faith in the globals. Not sure it's even worth trying to use them to plan a chasecation this season.

If this forum had that "exploding head" smiley I've seen on others, I'd use that.

Slightly OT (mods, move to a new thread if you feel necessary but please don't delete) but is this how Andrew was so badly underestimated? This blog suggests that the extreme winds being mixed down over land in small pockets of Andrew's eyewall may have been caused by unusual (for TCs) convective processes within the hurricane. Obviously it couldn't be in 1992, but is there any way this sort of thing could be predicted (other factors such as oceanic TCHP, shear, max potential intensity, etc in the path toward landfall being favorable to maintain a high-end hurricane) with enough lead time to add extra urgency to forecasts and thus evacuation orders?

I think it's a mistake to thing of an ERC as a "weakening" process, unless it's combined with unfavorable environmental factors like shear, dry air or cooler SSTs. Yes the maximum sustained winds drop off (temporarily) because they were located in the inner eyewall which goes away. BUT the IKE of the cyclone may stay consistent or even increase as the windfield expands. Add to that, the new/previously "outer" eywall was maturing and likely capable of mixing down everything it had. (points already made by others as I was typing).

It's fascinating to loop the TJUA radar and watch the >40dbz returns in the eyewall orbit the eye.

I'd be nervous if I was on St. Croix in the USVI, too. They're dangerously close to the beeline from Dominica to PR. As far as I can tell last time they really got whacked was in Marilyn ('95).

NHC really needs to create discussions like this and release them to the media, because U.S. landfall chances is the question on everyone's mind for each major tropical system, especially when it's beyond the reach of the cone.

*New member, longtime lurker and refugee from the veritable ghost towns of TalkWeather and Stormtrack here. I held off on joining because I despise the Eastern snow weenies and their subforums which fragment the discussion for severe threats, but it seems the knowledgeable severe people only post on this site* Brutal. No way I thought this severe season could be delayed as bad as 2014, since that year featured the winter that wouldn't die. This year we had plenty of warm, pleasant (sometimes unseasonably so) weather here in the Midwest from February through April, but we rarely "paid" for it the way that I expected. The one day we did (February 28, significant tornadoes up to I-80 in IL), I had a prior commitment because it didn't even occur to me that chasing would be a possibility in this region in February. Copied and pasted from what I just posted on Stormtrack: Well, I went ahead and took Monday morning off to keep open the option of chasing in the northern or central Plains Sunday evening. Whether I actually go or not remains to be seen. It continues to look darn near gorgeous on the GFS if you just look at the CAPE and surface pattern, but at 500mb things get a lot more iffy. The trough hangs back well to the west and the 500mb southwesterlies are 25-35kt at best over the warm sector. The big question is, do the favorable factors (namely CAPE and low-level directional shear) compensate resulting in slow-moving, easily chaseable supercells, or do you have insufficient mid-level shear and thus disorganized, marginally severe multicells? Capping also remains a concern although I think it should be breakable at least in some areas. I'd rather have that than too little cap and everything going up at once in a convective mess which we have seen all too often thus far this year. Low-level directional shear, SRH and hodograph critical angles look excellent along the warm front and near the triple point, which is another thing that has been lacking in many setups we've seen this year. Anyone remember what the 500mb winds and capping looked like on Bowdle day? As I recall, that was a pretty low-key risk setup (slight/5%) that paid off big time. I don't recall 500 mb winds being that strong on Dodge City or Chapman day last year, either. Monday is pretty much my only option since I'd be a huge jerk asking my coworkers to take extra days or work shorthanded again more than that so soon after what was supposed to be my chasecation, so any potentially better days later in the week are off the table for me until/unless something presents itself locally as the trough ejects toward the upper Midwest toward next Thursday/Friday/Saturday.