George BM

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07 3.53"

I was just thinking somewhat similar thoughts, at least with respect to some severe wind potential (Not that I'm a red tagger or anything like that). Also, the near -15C 500mb temps w/ the steep MLLRs you just mentioned would suggest a severe hail risk as well when combined with moderate CAPE (LI -5 to -7).

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07

Sure is dark out for 8:21:17 am even accounting for later sunrise times.

It will be along the equator in the eastern Pacific because at 3:21pm edt/ 12:21pm pdt the sun will be west of South America and southeast of Hawaii.

Did you notice any damage during your long walk post-storm late on Thursday?

13-9-5 is his peak season S/H/MH predictions (August 20th- October 20th). The numbers 7-3-2 in () to the right are the number of S/H/MHs so far during the August 20th to October 20th period.

MLLRs are just a WEE bit on the steep side this morning. Now if it were two months earlier with a stronger sun-angle resulting in steeper LLLRs w/ sufficient lower-level moisture and there was a thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into the region, especially during a favorable time of day, then.....

Yeap. It shows the first digital <=540 dm 1000-500mb thickness values over the region since spring. #Soon

Is it meteorological or climatological? It's here... Fall... we'll get a taste post-Ida.

Woah! Just came back from the future with this rainfall map. Check out those two jackpot zones.

718 WTNT31 KNHC 300240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 41.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

How do our 3" probabilities look?

Yeah. I saw the big storms blow up right over your house from colliding boundaries and even considered asking you for a report. (Curious George.)

000 WTNT34 KNHC 261445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Yeah. I'm in the Dulles area. I can confirm. For the past month I've watched storms and microbursts move around me the "highlight" being a microburst that hit Sterling a few miles to my north followed by the one that hit Franklin Farm, Reston, Vienna, etc. A couple miles to my south and southeast on August 13th. Believe it or not I haven't mowed the grass since Saturday, July 17th (over 5 weeks). The recent rains have finally allowed the grass to grow enough that I will mow it tomorrow.

Wait... Hail?

Nice catch. I guess "bay-enhanced" may've been a better term.

Looking like some bay-effect downpours are occurring over the Chesapeake this morning.

Thank you Showmethetropical!

Less than 1/2" here. Herndon, VA. 0.48" at IAD.

I wonder if it has to do with how dry IAD has been lately compared to other locations. Throughout this weeks heatwave I noticed that cumulus would always first develop around IAD. Perhaps with how dry it is in that area the ground heats up quicker and we hit the convective temperature before surrounding areas? I noticed the same thing yesterday after the morning mid-level clouds dissipated/moved east. It's what lead to the development of the eastern Loudoun, Montgomery, northern Fairfax county storms. Just a little something I've noticed all week.

IAD has hit 100F.

IAD hitting 99F thus far.