George BM

The May 15th-June 15th period actually happens to be the exact period I feel best about overall severe potential in these parts.

Soundings over the eastern shore, on the long range HRRR anyway, look good for severe wind potential as well as some hail with VERY steep LLLRs, 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 500mb temps (-20/-21C) w/ a LI around -4.

Yeap. It's currently undergoing an EWRC. Now to see how it comes out on the flip side of it.

@WxWatcher007 Check out STYSurigae in the Western Pacific.

Thank you all for the replies!

When you all who've already gotten the shot (I hope to get mine within the next week or two) talk about a sore arm do you mean the entire arm or just the area that got the shot?... Everyone reacts differently of course.

Same t-storm hit me here with small hail. Cold air aloft (500mb temps of -23 to -24C) definitely helped.

I'm actually more interested in the meso-low in southwestern VA now than I am about any potential afternoon convection for the reasons stated above. Perhaps early morning downpours w/ something a little more (gusty winds). If there were a little bit more surface CAPE, it could be more interesting.

I have a challenge for you. Use your new abilities to give the subforum a derecho that moves from northwest to southeast at 70mph with numerous hurricane force wind gusts lickity split! DOWIT!

Yeap.

@H2O @yoda Oh you two were referring to @WxWatcher007. Yeah he'll get multiple truck-tire eyewalls and eyes, hopefully. As for us?... Weenie-Os and Miller-Lites to drown the tears of being fringed it is.

FAX!

I WAS low-key wondering about the steep low-level lapse rates, weak instability and deep northwesterly flow for tomorrow after seeing today's 12z CAMs. Apparently the SPC is low-key watching as well. ...Delmarva/Chesapeake Vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep layer flow is forecast across the region as a strong upper low moves offshore the Northeast coast and an upper ridge slides slowly eastward across the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the upper 40s and low 50s beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, resulting in weak instability during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, forecast soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer developing as temperatures warm into the 70s. While severe storms are not expected given weak instability, a couple of convective showers and/or storms could produce locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2021

@PrinceFrederickWx Tell everybody who lost! Tell'em!

Well known liquor amateur here. Some alcoholic beverages can make you feel warmer?

IAD got down to 24F.

Got down to 29F at IAD w/ wind chills in the upper teens. It made for a fun morning run...

April graupel brings May Cicadas. Also... another month closer.

Temperatures shall rise. Humidity shall rise. The sun-angle shall rise. Bugs ... shall rise. ... That's after the coming cold shot, of course.

Just came in from my first cut. Nicest day this week for it.

43/24 at IAD currently after getting down to 41F. Gusty.

Some things just don't change lately. Ex. The near sub-tropical entity dropping 2+ inches of rain with the western edge along- you know the interstate continuing last years theme. As always, persistence until it isn't anymore. But this persistence has been persisting persistently for a while. It's going to change... eventually.

Yeap. No CG lightning detected anywhere in the region on radarscope.

Yeah. March climo and the tendency for overnight storms to our west to sink south of modeled are really keeping my expectations in check for Sunday atm.

The last time, from my memory anyway, that DC was in a hatched zone was on a Day 3 outlook for April 6, 2017. The last time, from my memory anyway, that DC was in a hatched zone at gametime was on February 24, 2016.