George BM

Saw the lightning bolts going backwards on Radarscope. Slept through it, though at my location I would've just heard low-rumbling distant thunder. I'll go ahead and put down March 2nd as the first thunder occurrence at my house of 2023. Not quite as exciting as the weather five years ago today but it's... something.

Just noticed Jupiter and Venus in the night sky side-by-side (the conjunction). I thought it was an aircraft like a helicopter at first glance out of the corner of my eyes.

Baby Yoda: Hot off the press! NWSGeorgeBM Headquarters Forecast Discussion Sunday, June 25, 2023 4:44PM EDT Surface dewpts and surface temps have jumped into the mid 70s and mid/upper 80s respectively over the past few hours behind the warm front. The associated elevated showers/storms have lifted into the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay/SE PA/ Delaware area. Dewpts will rise a few more degrees into the upper 70s w/ upper 80s air temps on breezy SSE winds ahead of a potent shortwave. Steep MLLRs (7-7.5C/km) have overspread the region w/ LLLRs approaching 7C/km. Over the next one to two hours as the shortwave and associated MCS approaches and lift increases a weak cap around the 800-750mb layer will be eroded. With the very fast deep-layer(700-400mb) westerly flow (55-60+kts) and large hodographs, effective bulk-shear easily exceeds 60kts w/ 250-350+m2/s2 of effective SRH. That combined with 3000-3500+J/kg MLCAPE will allow supercells to develop and rapidly mature producing very large(2.5”+) hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes, perhaps significant. As the line of storms associated w/ the MCS/derecho moves east of the mountains by 22-23z they will further intensify in the high CAPE/ high shear environment w/ widespread damaging winds and significantly severe (hurricane-force) gusts looking likely. With large effective SRH, QLCS tornadoes will also be a decent threat. The supercells and MCS will affect the region between 21z and 1z. Afterwards a cold front will move through bringing gusty NW winds and cooler/drier air. Temps will fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s w/ dewpts into the 40s by dawn. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM Jerz2VA: D word. Zugzwang: Over/under on whether we see 1 million costumers lose power? Baby Yoda: 80/20 maybe even 1.5 mil at peak. Significant severe wind probs with the watch is at 90%. Higher than it was in 2012 which was 70%. Joe the Eskimo:

Meteorological Spring is upon the masses! Also Climatological Spring... that too is upon the masses.

Take good care of yourself. Take it easy and be well. Wish you speediest of recoveries.

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) 2/22/2023: T (little RA/IP mix) 2/25/2023: T (light wet snow) Total as of February 25, 2023: 0.5"

Light snow/graupel. Herndon, VA.

Had light snow earlier this hour. Just flurries atm. Herndon, VA.

80F at IAD now! 80/48.

79F now at IAD. 79/48 for the 1:52pm obs.

IAD has now tied todays record of 77F. 77/50.

75/50 at IAD at 12:52pm w/ 76F peak so far.

IAD now at 76F. 76/51.

IAD has just hit 70F. 70/49

IAD has risen 11F in the past hour. 57/44 10:52am 68/49 11:52am

The conversations consist of the lack of snow this winter; how many peepers cousins, uncles and aunts that flew in from VA are already hearing; betting on if/when a late season freeze damage the blossoms this year; and how those weird monstrous beings called humans can be defeated once and for all... ...Or, more likely, they're just chirping and mating and I made all the previous things up... yeah probably that. ... IAD Obs: Currently the temperature is 47F under mainly cloudy skies w/ a calm wind and 40F dewpoint.

What beer/booze do you drink during your pbp's?

Hope some of you enjoyed the hour or two of partial sunshine east of the mountains (Some veiled sun continues through high clouds from near the Blue Ridge and westwards. The overcast is back for now for the rest of us... yes I know you didn't need me to tell you that. Tomorrow will be the day. 80 watch in effect.

Looks like many areas may actually get into some fairly decent sunshine based on satellite loops, particularly in the immediate DC area and southwards.

Tornado warned supercell in NJ right now.

I'm not a trailer expert and am unsure exactly what strength the winds would have to be in order to blow a trailer over... and it also depends on the trailers profile. But what I will say is that VA to Frederick, MD is generally a north to south (or south to north in this case) path. Winds will be out of the W/WNW gusting over 50mph at times, as you already know. I guess my biggest concern would be the crosswinds that the trailer could experience during the trip. Usually blow-overs occur when crosswinds are stronger say 60, 70+mph? But the weight of the trailer also matters, of course. Most likely the trailer will be fine but I'm no expert at this stuff. Hopefully someone with more knowledge answers your question.

Now some CAMs have up to 200+J/kg CAPE w/ steep LLLRs when the front moves through between midday and 3pm tomorrow. Some CAMs develop showers along/near said front. Given the thermodynamics and kinematics in place I would think there could be enhanced wind gusts, particularly w/ any heavier showers that form. Some smail hail would also looks possible w/ the most intense showers, along with a lightning bolt or two. Shower potential increases the further north you are in the area.

Another very gusty afternoon it looks like coming up this Tuesday w/ steep 0-2km LRs and 1-2km winds into the 40s(kts)... at least on the HRRR. Got to imagine that other CAMs are fairly similar.

Assuming we don't go below 26F at IAD before midnight the high/low at IAD for today looks like: 48/26 Today's average at IAD: 47/27 +1/-1 Perfectly balanced... as all should be.

Not the classic kind that people are referring to with a 50-100 mile wide strip of light (sometimes mod+) snow oriented from west to east across the region associated with overrunning and/or a jet streak, no.