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BlunderStorm

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  1. BlunderStorm
    It would seem from this point going forward we have two camps. One with the Euro/Ukie/Icon and the other with the GFS-NAM/CMC-RGEM with the delineation being how quickly the arctic air catches the frontal moisture. EDIT: I just realized this probably looks like a cluster#### on mobile. xD VS CHRISTMAS CAGE MATCH
  2. BlunderStorm
  3. BlunderStorm
    Summed up the Euro sticks to it's guns for 0z. MSLP is very similar with the leeside low really only getting it's act together in WV. The head of the front remains well ahead of the 540 line making it hard for anything wintry to really get going until it's well into the mountains and hitting NETN.
  4. BlunderStorm
    If only Dr. Schmaybe could live up to our expectations... Let's see what 0z has for us!
  5. BlunderStorm
    Clinch Mountain the Fun Killer. Considering this one is approaching at another angle it's unlikely we get a repeat per se.
  6. BlunderStorm
    https://ibb.co/wNq9B68 @John1122 thought I would put this up here for anyone interested.
  7. BlunderStorm
    Oof. GFS a little warmer and it develops the leeside low in WV instead of NC. Could be a lot worse though...imo. Maybe the Euro will meet it in the middle.
  8. BlunderStorm
    ...and so the model consolidation begins just like clockwork. Also yeah I noticed I got slammed but didn't wanna rub it in.
  9. BlunderStorm
    With energy associated with our system reaching the west coast we should probably get a clearer picture with 18z and 0z. Granted I doubt we have the best readings in the Yukon compared to Washington lol. Expect models to cave soon.
  10. BlunderStorm
    Not quite this hopeless but felt like sharing again.
  11. BlunderStorm
    12z and 0z comparison.
  12. BlunderStorm
    Surface temperature gradient behind the front is more gradual at 72 compared to 12z. Not a good initial sign.
  13. BlunderStorm
    Hmm... Perhaps... more potent cold = stronger front = front dives further down in latitude = low develops in more favorable location = ?
  14. BlunderStorm
    0z ICON at noon on Christmas Day for anyone curious.
  15. BlunderStorm
    Now that it has initialized 0z Ukie is a big improvement from 12z... (Not where we want it yet but woo!) The difference maker was getting the developing low to the east of the blue ridge allowing for the coveted leeside low.
  16. BlunderStorm
    Hopefully not stealing Holston's thunder but from what I saw it looks like an App runner in the same general time frame. It lays down a little snow but the lows placement makes it a welcome but minor event. Not what we want but definitely in line with stovepipes words. EDIT: I rescind my prior statement on the App Runner the website I use reverts to a prior run if you are past where it has initialized the present one. EDIT 2: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2020122012/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20201224-1800z.html @Carvers Gap
  17. BlunderStorm
    The RGEM at the end of it's run looks to be in nearly perfect agreement with the CMC fwiw. Not sure if they are normally that in sync.
  18. BlunderStorm
    0z Canadian also takes a step towards the GFS in terms of time frame and vice versa by a matter of a few hours.
  19. BlunderStorm
    0z GFS is underwhelming but sticks to a similar solution to it's prior run. It's got all of the progression from the previous run with less cold to back it up. (At least initially)
  20. BlunderStorm
    I keep waiting for all the models to almost simultaneously turn away from the event leaving a few of us with flurries. That said looking through the ensemble members I am pleased by what I see at least for 12z and 18z.
  21. BlunderStorm
    I've often wondered if they or another modeling site could implement a map of median snowfall among all the ensemble members for a run. It would prevent distortion from weenie maps and eliminate a lot of wide expanses of sub-inch totals. A single member with snowfall using the average means that areas will be listed with snowfall despite the vast majority of members having it out of the equation. Granted, the mean is still valuable in it's own right showing low likelihood areas still in play.
  22. BlunderStorm
    I think we're all used to getting shafted at this point which makes the potential for a white Christmas all the more alluring yet bothering. In my case, I can only help but feel snubbed the past few years especially with my local climate. Last having recorded a single day snowfall above 3" in March of 2018. Of course, I don't mean to whine and remain optimistic for any potential winter events ahead. Echoing the sentiments of others I am glad we aren't dealing with what we had last year.
  23. BlunderStorm
    Probably the most coveted window for snow in any year. We still have a good amount of variation in timings with the GFS and UKIE hitting earlier. If I had to guess at least in the GFS's case it has to do with it's bias.
  24. BlunderStorm
    Shhh...
  25. BlunderStorm
    The ICON as of the last 2 runs has evolved towards are more favorable solution from last night. It does away with the weak low in the midwest wandering into our back yard and returns to a low in the Canadian shield introducing more cold and advancing the front more quickly with a low developing along the front further south. It still is a mostly rain event on there but I'll take an Appalachian runner with a shot of cold over what it was showing.
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