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BlunderStorm

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  1. BlunderStorm
    Yep. Not sure what it's ensemble members are smoking in the deep south though...
  2. BlunderStorm
  3. BlunderStorm
    The GFS is holding the line of significant snowfall and pushing it south and west.
  4. BlunderStorm
    Not to mention the fact that snow aside with such a powerful front passing through you could easily get a flash freeze on bridges causing wrecks.
  5. BlunderStorm
    If you squint hard enough and ignore your windows being busted I reckon that counts as snow... West TN cashing in after all!
  6. BlunderStorm
    I'm rooting more so for a strengthening of the leeside low than it trending west, being probably the east most fella here haha. Better to expand the precip shield behind the front than shift it and delay it imo.
  7. BlunderStorm
    Non-Rushed Dandridge +3KM Version.
  8. BlunderStorm
    NAM Rolling!
  9. BlunderStorm
    These may be some words I regret but with how the meso models have been trending along with the consistency of the globals I'm gonna roll the dice and say if this storm busts... It's gonna bust the roof off the forecast.
  10. BlunderStorm
    You'll probably want to leave in the early to mid morning just to be safe as it will probably rain heavily throughout the whole trip. I would recommend not being out any later than 3 PM. As you will be driving west towards the approaching front heading back.
  11. BlunderStorm
    Any good trends this morning?
  12. BlunderStorm
    Christmas morning. 06z RGEM vs 06z NAM
  13. BlunderStorm
    One thing I noticed on the doomcast HRRR 0z is the division of the front into two waves that hit hours apart as the day progresses. How and why is beyond my understanding but one quick look at the NAM 3km in comparison doesn't show that present. Perhaps something to look out for. (Both screensnips taken at 15z) Check it out yourself on the models. EDIT: Adding to my confusion 6 hours prior and earlier looking at the presentation of the front with 2m temps it appears stronger and more progressive than the NAM 3km.
  14. BlunderStorm
    Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI.
  15. BlunderStorm
    May have a few hours somewhere around the realm of 12-15 MPH sustained intermittently with maybe some gusts in the 20s. That's the vibe I got from the NAM and RGEM at least. Per usual the eastern valley alongside the base of the blue ridge is a little more impressive.
  16. BlunderStorm
    RGEM Rolling.
  17. BlunderStorm
    18z NAM Low placement in the upper midwest is further south than 12z at 24 and is seemingly slower. Will see what that does downstream.
  18. BlunderStorm
    I would be elated if even 1/3rd of what the Canadian is showing came to fruition.
  19. BlunderStorm
    12z Euro pops the low over NETN and SWVA.
  20. BlunderStorm
    Yeah, you're in the right forum haha... Welcome aboard! It's good to have a fellow southwest Virginian in this neck of the woods! As for snowfall I would say things are looking fairly optimistic but there is a threat of the low pressure overrunning us and shifting the heaviest snowfall to our west. It's hard to say at this point.
  21. BlunderStorm
    0z Euro Control.
  22. BlunderStorm
    Here are the 20 GEFS ensembles for 06z.
  23. BlunderStorm
    000 FXUS64 KMRX 220841 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 3:41 AM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 JB .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)... An active extended period with two main systems. One during the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day and the next one at the end of the extended. Will focus most of this discussion on the Christmas system which will potentially be quite impactful. The main messages are the following: 1) Strong upper dynamics will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern Appalachians late Wednesday afternoon through around mid-morning Thursday. Models agree with a strong 850mb jet of 50- 60kts setting the stage for a Mountain Wave High Wind Event for Mountains and Foothills. 2) Strong boundary layer southerly jet will also pull abundant moisture into a strengthen upper jet dynamics to produce a 6 hours period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Isolated runoff issues are possible with localized flooding. Not expecting a widespread flooding event. 3) Strong cold air advection behind frontal passage between 12-16Z Thursday will allow rain to change to snow quickly in the afternoon. A window of light to moderate snow is expected Thursday afternoon and evening, some locally heavy northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Accumulating snow is expected especially areas along and north and east of interstate 40 and 75, as well as, the mountains. 4) Strong cold air advection Thursday will drop temperatures quickly in the afternoon with very cold airmass for Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal for Christmas day. Now for the particulars... For Wednesday, upper and surface ridging moves east with increasing boundary layer jet producing a mild day with increasing cloud cover, mainly mid and upper levels. Strengthening frontal boundary over western Tennessee late and continued ridging in the Carolinas will begin to produce high winds late in the Mountains and Foothills. For Wednesday night, A southern and northern stream jets will deepen a long-wave trough across the mid-section of the nation. Strong upper jet forcing will produce strong AGV/Omega along the frontal boundary. The 850mb jet will be near 50-60kts with good 850mb inversion to induce strong Mountain Wave High Wind event across the Mountains and Foothills. The 850mb Omega shows strong subsidence in this area depicting the affects of the Mountain waves. Have issued a High Wind Watch for these areas. For Thursday and early Thursday night, the brunt of the jet forcing and strong Omega within the increasing elevated frontal boundary (500-700mb) will produce widespread rain. Some of the rain will be moderate to locally heavy. The strong jet forcing will greatly strengthening the frontal boundary with strong cold air advection changing rain to snow across the entire area. However, the best mid- level Omega, negative EPV of -0.5 to almost -1, and affects of strengthening surface cyclogenesis will be across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. These areas will likely see the heaviest of the snow accumulations with some banding of the snow possible for a brief period of time. Significant snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible there and far east Tennessee Mountains. Snowfall of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch possible across the northern Plateau into the central Valley. Little to no accumulations elsewhere. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for these areas if the system persist for later runs. For Christmas day, Snow showers or flurries will remain possible across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, and Mountains. Another spoke of cold air aloft will also aid in the production of snow showers northeast. Additional light accumulations possible across the higher elevations. Main weather story will be the abnormally cold temperatures. The cold temperatures will persist Friday night and Saturday morning, but moderate for Saturday into Sunday as upper trough moves east. For late Sunday through Monday, another system will move into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A mixture of snow and rain possible early, then changing to all rain. DH
  24. BlunderStorm
    06z RGEM trending up for most areas! Western areas around Nashville east til the plateau would have got off better if not for some sleet. As an added bonus the run ends Christmas afternoon with widespread snowshowers still all over the plateau and NETN.
  25. BlunderStorm
    06z NAM trending up!
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