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Everything posted by BlunderStorm
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now down to 41F with a DP of 39. Was in and continue to be in the "dry pocket" (still some drizzle) but that much was a given thus far due to my location relative to the systems setup. Progression towards freezing is likely to accelerate as the front passes in the next hour. NWS is calling for an inch with models showing about 2 inches.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently 45F at 2100', will see how quickly the temps drop. Not extremely substantive but hey I'm here!- 300 replies
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Spring/Summer 2020 Observation Thread
BlunderStorm replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
For the record yes it is flurrying! Currently 34!- 186 replies
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Leap Days Clipper Parade: February 26th-29th 2020
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like this is likely to be the biggest snowfall this season the way it's going here. Quite impressive -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Snow appearing to be mostly wrapped up here.The models really pulled a head-fake at my latitude for this one. The temperatures were mostly cooperative staying at freezing but the moisture simply wasn't there (ironic) and the ground temps made the barrier of entry too high for the lighter stuff to stick. 7 hours of flurries/light snowfall accumulating to a negligible trace. Sun angle may have had a role in it as well. Still I can't say I was expecting more than an inch so tempered expectations won out. On a broader note, what a sorry excuse for "winter". This winter has thrown climo out of the window, this area is overdue but it's good to see some areas south of here get something.The weather pattern has been so hostile for reasons I don't have the energy to fully understand. (ocean temp anomalies and millions of other things in some complex web of cause and effect) And so winter malaise continues. (sorry for the mini rant) I do plan however to be more active in the following weeks. -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Virga finally breaking getting some dime and penny sized flakes now. Currently 34 degrees and holding. -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Radar is looking quite healthy but it's still virga here as well. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Something like that would be enough to wake me up from my mild winter malaise. I can dream... -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
BlunderStorm replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently 39 in Honaker and steadily dropping. -
19 with trace accumulations on the ground mid-day. A very welcome change in my book.
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71 at 11:30 in the heart of winter. Wow!
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ICE...
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28 in Honaker. Hopefully the upper levels remain below freezing as well.
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
And as the last band begins to slide out I report 2.3" where I officially measure. Not bad considering I was expecting something in the ballpark of 2". 1.9" fell before midnight and as of now 0.4" after. In the grass depending on where more than 3" sits in some spots! Perhaps just enough to pull off some rough sledding tomorrow!- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
After an initial burst snowfall has lightened up quite a bit. Maybe 1/4" on the ground as of now. At this point I'm steadily sitting at 31. Hoping things pick up SW of me!- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Snow beginning to stick, things have fully transitioned over to moderate snowfall with a current temperature of 33. And echoing Dan, in light of recent events I'd say this warrants a WWA at least for SWVA and the plateau.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
About half and half now heading way up the valley. 36 Now. The mountains during a lull in the precip already looked white.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now 38 in Honaker and steadily falling. The first flakes are beginning to mix in!- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently 40 here with a steady rain. Won't be long now...- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The NAM initialized a lot differently than what appears on radar. I know a dry level is causing plenty of virga but I'd say the NAM is underselling the precip.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Welcome!- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The ICON believe it or not has shown signs of improvement Plateau and east albeit still very underwhelming. 2 runs ago it had only portions of the plateau and SWVA barely catching a dusting. I'm wondering if the cold air arrives sooner than MRX is expecting especially with what the NAM did.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Notably an encouraging uptick in totals from both the 3km and 12km NAM across the region. The first wave is certainly less dry.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I know one thing for sure, I don't envy the position of the mets in forecasting this potential snow. A lot is going to depend on how quickly cold air advection reaches the precipitation shield. (If there is much of one) I'd say this is a situation where being north and west may be just as helpful as being at a good elevation. On another note the RGEM fwiw sure is making a lot of fanfare for it's debut depicting this one! (hour 54 and still plenty left to go at the end of it's run)- 486 replies
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I'd say for the most part the winter event was a bust but I can't complain. It was hard to really get a definitive total yesterday due to the melting mid-day and re-accumulation in the evening following. To approximate from what measurements I took in the morning, when I got home, and at midnight roughly speaking it would seem I had half an inch in the morning dwindling to something around 0.2" in the afternoon. Following that by midnight it had once again reached half an inch. So, 0.8"? and maybe an additional tenth of an inch from today. Altogether a little under an inch fell, though had the ground been colder it likely would have accumulated notably more.