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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    The mid-level track and snowfall distribution for next week's modeled event look a lot like several storms we had earlier this year. Run to run consistency is good for central NE, but not as encouraging for us.
  2. eduggs
    Agreed. But let's not prematurely get carried away. It's still a so so threat. The mid and low level lows are still modeled to track through the central Great Lakes into southern Ontario. Historically that's a tough setup for the immediate NYC area. The antecedent airmass is also only modestly supportive of wintry precipitation along the coastal plain. But, I really like the trends towards really strong PVA and rapidly developing coastal SLP. I'd like to see the mid-level lows shift a little more southward. Still some work to do.
  3. eduggs
    The 0z UKMET gets the ULL pretty far north. Would probably be some decent deform snow NEPA - I-84 corridor. The soundings that I can see - GFS - are really warm above the deck. Wish I could see some of the others. I think you're right that localized banding would cool the column - probably deep layer isothermal result.
  4. eduggs
    If a model shows it, it can probably happen. I'm not optimistic either, but snow is still plausible. One good thing is the delayed progression of the now bowling ball modeled ULL allows colder surface air to filter in. In earlier modeled scenarios, the mid-levels cooled faster than the surface. Now we will be fighting the rapidly warming mid-levels instead.
  5. eduggs
    I don't like when the cold air source gets pinched off like most models are showing. And for the reason that you describe - the mid-levels get torched. That said, a good number of 18z GEFS and especially EPS members showed showed some snow for our area, so I don't agree that there is no hope for a Sun or even early Mon event.
  6. eduggs
    I think the delay trend went a bit too far. A touch of snow now in Louisiana and Mississippi on the GFS. Upper levels torch quickly after the mid-level center pinches off. I hope this reverses a bit, otherwise we're left with rain and ZR. Shame cause it could be kind of a fun, low expectation, parachute bomb event.
  7. eduggs
    Actually cold air does seep in after the initial Saturday impulse but is quickly displaced before the pinched off ULL can rotate in some precipitation on Sun or even early Mon.
  8. eduggs
    Maybe. I was just trying to point out the difference between atmospheric scientists, climatologists, hydrologists with graduate degrees, PhDs etc who do research vs. "weather forecasters" who tend not to utilize the scientific method as readily. Certainly there is overlap, but in a general sense there is a divide between the types who study meteorology in college vs. physics or chemistry.
  9. eduggs
    Gotta give some credit to the ICON the way this is headed. It picked up pretty early on the delayed southern wave allowing it to pinch off. The pinching off of the ULL will likely make it difficult to keep both low and mid-levels subfreezing. Being near the 500mb low center and just west of the SLP is probably going to be the place to be for snow. Eastern slopes of the Southern Apps might be in line here.
  10. eduggs
    PSU, poor job all around. I encourage you to read the words that I actually write instead of resorting to snarky, strawman arguments. I don't think this is the best version of you. But I'm confident nobody wants to read any more of this back and forth. Let's just root for snow.
  11. eduggs
    This is what I said in response to Stormtracker poo-pooing the 18z GFS and asserting that 0z would be totally different. Hardly a harsh personal attack: I've made my pessimism clear regarding the Sat system, particularly for the DC - NYC corridor. However, I think you may have lost your ability to interpret model charts. I guess that's what a string of ratters does to a person, capped off by incessant Spring. This is a legitimate snow threat for someone along the east coast, and it's comfortably inside mid-range. There's a very good chance this will be the final legitimate wintry threat of the season for some on here. Agreed that 18z may have been the high point of the model cycles. But if you can't see the potential in a full-continent longwave trof with sub 540dm heights and a vortmax in GA, then I don't think you're cut out for this. I haven't had any snow this winter either. Barely anything in 2 years. It's makes us reflexively pessimistic and unable to recognize a snow threat when it materializes. Doesn't mean we're dumb... just gun shy. And yes, I genuinely believe that if you can't get a little excited to watch the evolution of a deep modeled trof with a base in the Gulf of Mexico in February, then you're not cut out for winter weather tracking in the mid-Atl. I think you should rethink some of your harsh critiques of me and focus on weather forecasting or whatever else you are interested in.
  12. eduggs
    You are the one making personal attacks. I did not know you ruled this subforum. Had I known it would hurt your feelings if somebody else provided counter analysis, I might have had second thoughts. My point was then and remains now that some people don't seem to be doing a good job at sussing out what a wintry threat actually looks like. If you want to wait until the short range models are all "showing blue" before raising half an eyebrow, then you might be waiting a long time.
  13. eduggs
    0z GEFS mean shifted towards the CMC a bit. We need a sharp trof that cuts off like the OP GFS to have a shot with this.
  14. eduggs
    Yeah the CMC was a definite improvement aloft compared to the past several runs. But a blend with the GFS would likely pinch off and miss southeast. An EC solution anywhere close to the GFS would be huge - would go a long way towards making some wintry precipitation seem possible. Any significant negative trend the next two cycles and this is probably dead.
  15. eduggs
    Meteorologists are the least scientific of all the pseudo-sciences. It's a faith based "science." Long range strat temp modeling has high uncertainty. The regional effect of strat warming is highly variable. The long term correlation between modeled strat warming events and regional winter outcomes is very low. We've seen this year after year. What have we learned?
  16. eduggs
    A decaying cutoff in the southeast is a definite possibility as well. It has been part of the ensemble spread for a day now and the delayed shortwave progression is trending towards it. But this scenario also leaves open the possibility of some cold-side precipitation further up the coast.
  17. eduggs
    And that right there is our best day 5 map of the winter thus far
  18. eduggs
    I agree with this. But there's a path there that would allow cold air to seep southward. Then a delayed wave, possibly a not-quite-squashed cutoff, could possibly rotate some precipitation back into the cold air before everything gets shunted east. I much prefer a miss east to a torched cutter followed by cold front. In this preferred scenario, a longshot sharper wave could give us something.
  19. eduggs
    Not saying the GFS or EC will happen, but big fail for the Mets and amateurs alike who obsess over fantasy pattern changes, long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and stratospheric warming events. The never ending quest for a simple causal relationship to predict snowstorms coming far out in fantasy land has led to an atrophying of actual mid-range forecasting skills. "Patterns" don't produce local snowstorms. Particular combinations of synoptic features do.
  20. eduggs
    The Fri-Sat event has too many ways to fail, so I am pessimistic on snow chances outside of elevated interior regions, at least for now. However, a lot of Mets and amateurs drop the ball as forecasters because they obsess over long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and the search for the mythical pattern change. Snowstorms are local phenomena that occur due to very specific, random interactions of synoptic features. They cannot be forecast reliably very far out in the future. If you keep scouring fantasy range for the perfect setup, you will miss the potential event hiding in plain sight.
  21. eduggs
    The GFS is the warmest of 0z so far. CMC, ICON, and UK are colder. Considering the lead in wave pushes warmth to Ontario, this essentially would have to be a rain to snow scenario best case. Two viable options for snow are a flat trof (CMC) or a high amplitude cutoff. I think a stronger cutoff would be most helpful to wrap in some cold air, but models are not very supportive. The GFS has the right trof structure but the mid-level center tracks too far north. The 18z ICON had something maybe more workable, but it was an outlier.
  22. eduggs
    A step back from the GFS and slight step forward from the CMC (but flat). Neither are inspiring. Status quo for now. Chances for snow continue to look slim outside the distant NW elevated terrain. I did notice the GFS closing off 500mb... just too far north unfortunately. Also lower heights in Atlanta than Syracuse, however brief, is a trof worth paying attention to.
  23. eduggs
    0z ICON is significantly warmer and wetter than the previous two runs. Aloft it shifted towards the model consensus. But it still manages to get flakes in the air on Saturday for most and probably has the best mid-level synoptic signature of any threat we've seen all winter. It's almost certainly showing a miss for most locally, but it's honestly not too far off from something better.
  24. eduggs
    0z ICON coming in with a not unexpected shift towards the 18z GFS. Warmer and wetter than 18z. Hopefully the GFS makes a similar shift to meet it. Otherwise the multi cycle favorable trend may be over. The 0z ICON does manage to close off the mid-levels and get a coastal SLP going, but too late for most except primarily SNE. But can't say it looks too far off for something more widespread and wintry.
  25. eduggs
    18z ICON and GFS once again slightly improved compared to 12z. 18z GEFS with another notable improvement as well, with the mean precipitation chart finally indicating a coastal SLP on Saturday with some cold-side precipitation.
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