LibertyBell

I like 2012 too, actually 1973, 2007 and 2012 but I'm very cautious about using 70s analogs here, we get a lot more precip on the east coast than we used to back then. I noticed 1973, 1988 and 1999 mentioned in an earlier post by you (on this page), I think you stated that you didn't like 1999 though but 1988 was on there. 2012 might be the best match of all, but as you'll notice in the climate subforum, sea ice was on a rapid rise at this point in 2012, and we're really lagging behind in 2020. I'd give a slight nod to 2007 over the other years that were mentioned.

yes, this is something I noticed a few years ago, but the relationship was stronger before the 1995-96 winter.

this storm at the end of the month, the models have been waffling back and forth on it, do you see it more like 1991 or 2012? I see your list of analogs had 1973, 1988, 1999 and 2007 in it, and none of those had a large storm at the end of the month. Personally I'd throw out 1988 and 1999 as they are 11 yr peak solar cycle years, and go with 1973 and 2007.

Lots of stuff here

did you see this Chris?

Do you think Phoenix can have half their days reach 100 degrees this year, Don? They have to get to 183. What's the latest they've hit it?

This is worse than 2012 was.

Some illuminating posts from Climate Ben about climate change and the perils of industrial agriculture and the role it plays in the current mass extinction: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1287482989639880706 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1317414094010486788

Pumping up the ridge for the second TC, Walt?

Euro looks like it's also moving to a two TC scenario so it may be playing catch up here. GFS has had it like this for awhile.

The comparison to 12-13 with Sandy that year is a good catch too, latest GFS shows a track to Cape Cod at 950mb, but Euro Ensembles favor a more offshore track (maybe a la Matthew?)

2007-08 and 2016-17 were very different here, the latter was a really good backloaded winter with heavy snow in March and April. 2007-08 was pretty much a noshow winter here outside of one 6-8 inch event in February (a SWFE that didn't changeover.)

that was an extreme latitude based winter with the quick transition in extreme SNE. I remember your predictions for that winter were spot on, going with similar for this winter? 10/07 had the latest 90 I have ever seen on the south shore of Long Island.

That's a shockingly LP....would it be extratropical at this point?

Top 7 warmest Septembers were all in the last 7 years!

we also need to do something about birds that get killed in collisions with airplanes.

The GND is very thorough in addressing the many problems we face as a society, from the antiquated land use policy that is driving the current mass extinction to the unhealthy high meat/processed food diet that is driving the high rates of diabetes and obesity and the worst BMI in the world, to the problems of plastic pollution that are ubiquitous worldwide. The IPCC has stated we must cut fossil fuel usage by half by 2030 to avoid irreversible consequences and even that may be too conservative, as the damage we've already caused is expected to stick with us for thousands of years.

Humanity has a horrible history of driving species to extinction throughout their history. What a tragic legacy. https://www.livescience.com/first-human-caused-animal-extinction.html https://www.livescience.com/53822-dodo-birds-were-smart.html https://www.livescience.com/earth-without-people.html#xenforo-comments-3341 They even lied and tried to blame the species themselves for their own extinction by saying they were stupid when they clearly weren't. I liked the last piece the most, how long it will take for the planet to recover from the mess we've caused when humanity finally goes extinct.

I hope they hinder sales in regions vulnerable to wild fires too. How long until we get some legislation preventing people from buying property in these climate vulnerable areas?

a well funded EPA that doesn't employ people who are part of the industries they are supposed to be regulating (we could also say that about the FDA and other regulatory agencies.)

More advanced wind turbines have built in computers that shut down individual units when birds approach. This problem is going to lessen with new tech.

Yes, I never understood the idea that we should bear the responsibilities of what they do, while they also take our money.

My favorite was actually the snowstorm in April! That was a historic cold pattern in March and April that year.