LibertyBell

I dont think climate deniers are actually climate deniers (at least the majority of them), they actually either dont care or believe that a warming planet is a good thing or they think its too late to do anything about it so might as well just let it keep going.

what about 2001-02?

what caused the very warm north Pacific?

New PBS series beginning next Monday https://www.pbs.org/show/power-trip-story-energy/

Chris was 1993-94 el nino like? I remember we went from a cold October and early November to a historically warm November by the middle of the month

Yeah I think the chances NYC hits 80 in February are higher than getting 30 inches of snow.

No real reason for a debate, you could retire the name with the year at the end, for example Zeta 2020.

they're destroying the forests there? In the Age of Nature series they were showing how Bhutan became the first carbon negative nation on the planet by preserving their forests and building dams by hand to stop flooding from ice melt.

Looks like the best way may be to preserve the forests we have.

Yep and a chance to set some more records. Any idea when the latest is that a major made LF in the US?

Thanks, I didn't know about the licensing issue! Is only certain equipment allowed to display very high wind speeds? (Sounds like a money issue.)

Saw a great series on Nature last night about expanding forests to take carbon out of the atmosphere. Bhutan is the world's first carbon negative nation. We need to expand forests to get them to cover 60% of the world's land surface and that means a few trillion more trees. That will greatly help our efforts to get carbon dioxide levels lower and improve biodiversity.

Also isn't it true that alpine areas warm more slowly and areas close to the oceans are warming much faster because the oceans act as heat sinks? Same reason why the arctic warms much faster than antarctica

What were the highest confirmed wind gusts and storm surge with this? I looked around and for confirmed numbers found 112 mph for highest wind gust and 10.88 ft for highest storm surge. That makes me think it will be upgraded to Cat 3 in post, as the highest confirmed wind gust reported usually corresponds with the highest sustained winds at landfall.

the official reporting location is the airport which is in the western part of the city, correct? so they wont get the strongest winds there. But there should be other high order stations in and around the city to make up for it. Do you or does anyone have a list of the strongest hurricanes that have directly hit NOLA and the strongest winds reported there (100+)?

the 125-136 measurements for gusts are similar to what was reported for Laura out in SW Louisiana.

very marshy areas and moving quickly, probably wont weaken until north of NOLA

what time is high tide?

not only that, those marshy areas aren't going to weaken it much, if at all.

Yeah and I'm not sure they have any official wind instrumentation near those bayous to measure wind or surge for that matter. I remember the same issues with Laura with surge as people thought surge was lower than expected because of where it occurred, but later studies showed that the surge was higher, but in a much more sparsely populated area.

I just wanted to be clear that's what you said because in the first part of the sentence you said it would be reported as 110 mph and in the second part you said 115 mph lol. This part: Not cutoff at 2.5mph and if it's a 112 major they'd say it was 110. They'd say 115 cat 3 if winds support 112. Regardless, interesting read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/ Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall.

New advisory has a pressure drop to 970

ha not worth the effort. It looks like it may be upgraded later anyway. We went through all this with Michael too. I remember that discussion well.

Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory?

Wind speeds in the official reports issued to the public sure are rounded- that's why you see official reports of wind speeds always listed in 5 mph increments. And on top of that the categorization of these storms are based on those rounded numbers, which is why the SS scale should be rounded to the nearest 5 mph too. I work in data and this is a thing we call "significant figures." You can't categorize something beyond the accuracy of the information you have to do so.