LibertyBell

the long term climate trend is far stronger than any ENSO state, I doubt there is going to be much if any cooling.....except for the usual suspects in the mountainous west, they seem to be the last to the warming climate party as always.

The entire planet is roasting, this is obviously part of the long term climate trend.

This is never going to be a "strong la nina" that was settled weeks ago.

the cfs is the least accurate model of them all, which makes all of this even more hilarious lol

They also do mass surveillance there on a scale similar to the US and the UK. Violence against minorities has also been on the rise there.

I'm grateful that cold and dry winters have become rare.

Yep there seems to be a trend of late for May to be our blockiest month. That did result in the latest snow I have ever seen (I was too young to remember May 1977).

I wish it was always like that with a storm that takes that track lol

Great opportunity for astrophotography with the moon in its "darker" phases. Looks like things will just in time *by mid month*

this isn't a surprise, we had this happen last year too and in many other winters especially in January (2001-02 comes to mind, as well as 2011-12). Many of these winters saw big snowfalls in the Carolinas, more than what we got.

Thanks Ray, I think you, Tom and I are on the same page, also I seem to recall seasons in which we have lackluster Februaries, winter usually makes a little comeback or at the very least, a last stand in March.

Thanks Don, can you post the link again, I have it saved at my other home and can't it from here. It should be stickied!

also just as important DRY/SEMI ARID PLACES ARE GETTING DRIER WET HUMID PLACES ARE GETTING WETTER AND MORE HUMID THIS MEANS BOTH BIGGER PRECIP RAIN BOMBS AND SNOW BOMBS

I'd like to see a chart showing the minimum temps 7 days and closer in before our 10 inch snowfalls. At least since 2002.....

meanwhile someone on twitter was posting about how to commit the "perfect murder"- it had something to do with melting icicles lol.

honestly and you know this as well as anyone Don, whether it weakens or doesn't wouldn't matter, as it's extremely likely our temps would be above normal anyway. There are far greater forces that control our climate and they set the stage for everything else.

also....the reason why I say there is no defined enso pattern for us is no matter what signal you get, chances are (I'd say 9 out of 10), it'll be above normal temps.....el nino, we have above normal temps, la nina we have above normal temps, neutral, we have above normal temps. It all comes down to timing between storms and the short duration cold shots we do get. You'll be right 90% of the time if you forecast a milder than normal winter, the real talent is in forecasting how much snow and when lol.

they've also been known to be bookended, hence the reason we should be on the look out for early March.

Knowing our luck, we'll be in the subsidence zone while someone either east or west of us gets 40-50 inches of snow and we'll have to settle for 15-20 inches haha

you're definitely not the only one that feels this way, Ray. Having lived through 80s winters when it was brutally cold and we got 2-4 inch deals every other week with no double digit snowfalls between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993....yea this is a lot better.

actually coastal storms should be getting stronger thanks to warmer SST.

I'm like that also, not a huge fan of extreme cold and high fuel bills lol. Although I must say I do like moderately cold and crystal clear skies, it's great for astrophotography and the sun heats up my house nicely during the day.

Yep, especially the first third of March. We usually see winters come back when there's a hiatus for the first half of February.

Having lived through the 70s, 80s and 90s, the climate has radically changed from then to now both in terms of temps and precip (should add humidity levels too). Allergy levels are much worse and so is air quality.

ISO focusing a bit more directly (on snowfall rather than temps which are always going to be mild, we know this already) do you see another 15-20 inches for NYC from the middle to end of Jan? That would get us to near normal seasonal snowfall with the 10" we have already. While I know Feb is forecast to start out mild and dry, in many similar winters, we've returned to another, albeit smaller window of snow towards the end of Feb and beginning of March, which could land us another 5-10 inches. Would you say the odds are about even for NYC to have around 30 inches of snow by the end of the season?