LibertyBell

and I'm going to go back to the idea that LR forecasting is pseudoscience. Can you imagine if physicists were given this kind of leeway when they developed the quark model? They would be laughed out of the profession. If you can't achieve a high verification score then it's not even worthy of pursuing. You have all these different models etc-- which is a sign of disorder and disarray. When physicists had a similar situation with an overabundance of particles, they developed the quark model in the 70s which consolidated and simplified everything into a few basic building blocks that explained how reality actually works. Until LR "forecasters" are able to do that, it's hard to take them or their "science" seriously.

Good because this is the pattern change you mentioned-- didn't you say that there would be a good chance for a big snowstorm just before the pattern changed to warmer? It would be worth it to actually get something, otherwise tracking weather is an extremely boring hobby.

We'll have a chance for one big snowstorm, and it will come right before the pattern changes to warmer weather. You agree with this, Chris?

Predictions by all the news outlets is rain first changing to snow later with totals of around 1 inch.

Did ACY get bigger snowstorms than us back then? I think so if we're talking about 1988-89 and 1990-91

Going with the idea that we will get a big snowstorm but it will happen just before the pattern changes to warmer?

It's okay, don't jump off the ledge. We'll get you the help you need....we promise! Just don't jump!

didn't you have a condition for when the NAVGEM turns out to be right?

1973-74 and 1974-75 seem to be okay but outside of those, some very lackluster winters (and lackluster tropical seasons too).

Thanks so only T at JFK? That report of 0.5 inch is so close to JFK though, that's our friend "noreaster" in Howard Beach, he used to post here.

How heavy is it up by Albrightsville-Lake Harmony area?

Lehighton to Toms River is a WNW to ESE trajectory- with the wind direction I suppose?

meanwhile the sun is out here lol just north of there

I remember the LIRR was shut down for a week, no commuting into or out of the city. That was the first 20" snowstorm in 13 years and no one knew how to handle it. Also undermeasured, an argument could be made that it was closer to 30" than 20"

Yes I really wished they'd upgrade the NAM instead, but I guess it will live on in the FV3? The same way that the MRF transitioned to the GFS I suppose?

Getting it up in my area too, I wonder if this will last most of the day?

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

hey let it all go out in a big bang with PD3 !

wow even that last one is good, but these have low skill beyond 2 weeks correct?

I love these up in the mountains, you get light accumulating snow all day sometimes.

Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds!

Wasn't Jan 1996 one of these EE storms? and Jan 2016 was a NAM-GFS storm? Boxing Day was all GFS? Feb 2006 was a GFS-JAP storm? PD2 was Euro-NAM? I'm trying to remember what models did best for all of our 20+ storms....do you think someone could make a table about this and the various indices and ENSO conditions at the time?

I think it's more likely that this doesn't happen rather than the follow up storm.

GIGO as far as data input is concerned, as you get closer to the event the data is better so the models become more accurate.

a triple phaser!!!