LibertyBell

Yep, I see that on my weather station too, because when the temperature goes up or down there are "jumps" that correspond to 0.2F (but it's actually 0.1C measurements that are being converted to F).... once in awhile there is a change of only 0.1F but it only happens at certain numbers....and these just happen to be going from a change of 0.2C to 0.3C over the previous whole integer conversion from C to F. That doesn't sound so clear lol so let me illustrate. By whole integer conversion I mean when a whole integer C reading converts to a whole integer F reading. Let's take 0C = 32F as our example. so a change of 0.1C = a change of 0.18F or 32.2F when rounded to the nearest tenth a change of 0.2C = a change of 0.36F or 32.4F a change of 0.3C = a change of 0.54F or 32.5F a change of 0.4C = a change of 0.72F or 32.7F a change of 0.5C = a change of 0.90F or 32.9C you get my point lol Now notice the change of going from 0.2C to 0.3C If you round the F to the nearest tenth 0.36F rounds to 0.4F and the 0.54F rounds to 0.5F So in this case the next highest increment going up from 32.0F is 32.2F (because it's really increasing from 0.0C to 0.1C and that's an increase of 0.18F so in F this gets rounded to a 0.2F increase or 32.2F).... the ONLY time we see a 0.1F increase is going from 0.2C to 0.3C in that range because the actual value of the conversion is going from 32.36F to 32.54F, so the weather station will show it going from 32.4F to 32.5F. This formula works for every conversion I have seen on my weather station, the only time I see a 0.1F increment being used is when the conversion calls for it (a change of 0.2C to 0.3C from a whole integer conversion value of C).

ah okay so if the low was 32.4F on NWS instrumentation at, say NYC, that wouldn't be considered a low of freezing for that day? and likewise if the high was 89.5 that would be considered a 90 degree high on that day, Don?

Yeah we always lose something in the conversion lol. I can tell our weather stations measure in 0.1C increments and convert to F so the precision isn't 0.1F but it could be if the manufacturers wanted it to be.

The good thing about February is we don't need severe cold for snow, temps in the 30s would be enough.

Thanks Don, so does the NWS actually keep temperature records in 0.1C increments and the conversion to F is what results in the rounding errors? My weather station does the same thing, I noticed it's actually measuring in 0.1C increments and the F is a conversion and not an actual exact measurement.

Is this an omega block setting up early this year-- so we're getting shortening wavelengths a month earlier than we usually do?

Don, for let's say highs in the 30s on a consistent basis are you looking at Feb 10th and beyond or more like after Feb 15th? Also-- we're going to hit a landmark soon. When we reach Day 730 it will be exactly 2 full years since the last 2" snowfall!

we'll get some sunshine next week

I can't help but thinking it's an interesting coincidence that it hit 80 at Newark in February 2018 and then winter came back in full force a few weeks later and then today it hit 80 at DC and that winter might come back in a few weeks.

Simulated snowfall is THE BEST kind of snowfall.

Didn't parts of Long Island actually get 2 feet? Maybe Islip and points eastward? And that one observer in Orient measured 30" lol

I remember we had a heat index of 100 here when it hit 96 on October 2nd (I think it was in 2018?) and that was on the south shore of Long Island lol

It makes me wonder sometimes if actual weather records are kept to a degree or to the nearest tenth of a degree. Most of our personal weather stations keep track of temperatures to the nearest tenth of a degree. Here's where it can create issues-- If my weather station records a low of 32.4 should that count as a freezing day? The low was technically above freezing-- because freezing is exactly 32.0 How does the NWS handle such issues? Do they round the temperature down to 32 or is a low of 32.4 considered a day on which it did not reach freezing? Likewise does a day with a high of 89.5 get called a 90 degree day or not? I always assumed that 32.4 is rounded down to 32 and 89.5 is rounded up to 90?

Nina conditions would be good for a nice hot summer

Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February?

This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's?

and DC hit 80 degrees today, the earliest that has ever happened by 4 weeks! By the way, really nice color on those buildings lol

Don a small point, was the high at DCA 80 or 81? I saw a tweet that said it was 81? And did Dulles get any higher than 79?

Thanks, I figured we have less of a chance of storms sliding under us than we did in 2010, because the -nao was at historic levels in 2010.

Nice writeup..... it's worth remembering that if we are going to use 2010 as an analog that although the good pattern started in mid January, the first couple of storms slid under us. There was a storm in late January which only made it up to Central NJ for any snowfall at all, and of course the Feb 6, 2010 snowmageddon which hit the south shore with 1-2 inches of snow but 50 miles south of us got 2 feet. So maybe the first couple of storms in this great pattern will miss to our south (depending on how strong the nao blocking is-- in 2010 it was historic). So if this is the case we wouldn't realize our snowfall dreams until after mid February and that pattern would only last for 3 weeks at most (which is how long it lasted in February 2010 I think?) I'm not familiar with 1957-58, how long did the good pattern last on the backend that winter (the interval between the first snowfall of the backend pattern and the last?)

Ant, before the great pattern can "continue" it first needs to BEGIN. lol

I think because I used to spend a lot of time in the SW when I was little and it's fun to go running in the morning with really low humidity. The nights were also cool and comfortable!

Was October 2019 the same one it hit 95 at JFK? We had a heat index of 100 that afternoon lol That has to be the latest heat index of 100 or temperature of 95 at JFK on record.

Hopefully soon, because that will mean lower humidity! Low humidity 100 degree heat is great running weather!

and 85 at Central Park is almost as early.... I believe Central Park hit 85 or higher on 3/15/1990? We had a string of three straight days in the mid 80s in mid March 1990, that's when we had the really long summers that started in March and ended in September lol