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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    DOX is showing the line nicely. Approaching the NJ coast now.
  2. NJwx85
    The latest run of the HRRR has two broken lines swinging through during the early part of the evening. Development occurs over Upstate NY after the current MCS moves out.
  3. NJwx85
    The Northern part of the line is probably going to clip us but the severe portion is from Allentown and points South. We'll see if anything develops further Northeast. The best mid-level lapse rates are right a long the coast.
  4. NJwx85
    It's a fast moving squall line so less rain makes sense. Looks like the EML has made it up into at least the Southern tier of NY and the Western Hudson Valley so that's a good sign. The storms should ride the Northern periphery of the instability axis.
  5. NJwx85
    MCS's tend to dive Southeastward so even Central NJ might be too far North if the things don't develop into at least Western NY.
  6. NJwx85
    You can see how far off the 06z NAM is
  7. NJwx85
    Based on current radar, that band looks like it needs to be shifted 50-100 miles South.
  8. NJwx85
    That line is already looking fierce in NW PA.
  9. NJwx85
    Storm kinda skipped right over me here. Last week it looked like 3-4 days of rain with several inches. Rained here for about 5 minutes around 5:00 and that was it. Terrible mid range modeling continues.
  10. NJwx85
    Thunder and lightning here
  11. NJwx85
    Plenty of SBCAPE and shear to go around. Only real missing component for severe is less than great mid-level lapse rates. We shall see if the lift makes it far enough East before we lose instability.
  12. NJwx85
    Cleared out with full sunshine and mostly clear skies here.
  13. NJwx85
    Upper 80’s in the forecast here for next week. Just in time for met Summer.
  14. NJwx85
    It was 85 here on Saturday and my upstairs was 80 degrees. F that.
  15. NJwx85
    Starting Thursday it’s supposed to be in the 70’s everyday now. Most days should feature lots of sun out here as well. Might not be pool weather yet but it’s not supposed be that hot in May. Big improvement from the grim look a few days ago. We had the AC on all weekend. Turned it off last night.
  16. NJwx85
    Glad we’re not in the bullseye five days out.
  17. NJwx85
    Thunderstorms incoming
  18. NJwx85
    Pouring snow here for the last ten minutes
  19. NJwx85
    Let’s see if you switch to all snow. I’m still rain here and I’m 25 miles inland.
  20. NJwx85
    Not quite, it’s just at I-287 now.
  21. NJwx85
    It’s getting close here. The snow line has made it to Sterling Forrest.
  22. NJwx85
    I’m just being realistic. This is the new normal. It manages to snow it seems in every month except December, January and February. It was 82 degrees here last Sunday. Can’t make this sh*t up.
  23. NJwx85
    I don’t think flakes will make it all the way to the coast. Could be wrong, but it’s still 40 degrees where I am and the back edge is already to the Poconos.
  24. NJwx85
    None of the models that take melting into account showed accumulating snow near the coast. Those 10:1 maps are garbage even in Winter.
  25. NJwx85
    That deformation band on radar looks pretty legit.
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