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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    A lot of the river areas in Northern NJ were resort areas for people in the city during the 40's and 50's when people would vacation out in the country. That is when a lot of these areas were built up. It was a quiet period without a lot of major flooding and you could actually swim and fish in the Pompton river without fear. My Dad grew up in the Sam's Maple Grove section of Lincoln Park and would tell stories about swimming in the river as a kid. Then the 60's were bad with floods with 1968 being the worst. And then you had an almost 20 year quiet period until the big flood of 1984 which set records that were only broken with Irene in 2011. That's the problem. You can sometimes get a 10-20 year stretch with no issues and then a period like this happens with two major floods in less than a month and the potential for more in this pattern. The house my Dad grew up in was finally knocked down after Irene. My Grandfather and three of my Dad's uncles helped build the majority of the houses back there. Not much of what was there is still standing.
  2. NJwx85
    After Irene FEMA finally came in and moved people out of the hardest hit areas. It's not as easy as it sounds. People are stubborn and don't want to leave. It's not just homes that are hit hard. The Pompton and Passaic rivers both impact highways and businesses. Rt 23 is now shutdown in both directions in Pequannock Township. If you're not familiar with the area you wouldn't know but this is the major artery that connects Rt 80/46 with I-287 and points North and West.
  3. NJwx85
    My snowpack is also completely gone with the exception of a few small piles. It was still mostly intact as of 6PM last night.
  4. NJwx85
    I think the wind had an easier time in areas closest to the river. So that explains why Nyack, Tappan had more damage than areas even a few miles further West.
  5. NJwx85
    06z globals pretty locked in on another 1-2" areawide, however it looks like SNE might take the brunt of it instead of us.
  6. NJwx85
    I'm in Bardonia just off 304 and the wind here wasn't crazy. The power flickered around 10:30 but that was it. I feel the wind was stronger in the December storm. The rain performed as forecasted. My hometown of Pompton Plains is completely flooded this morning.
  7. NJwx85
    This is going to clear Western areas by midnight.
  8. NJwx85
    It’s moving fast. Back edge has cleared DC already.
  9. NJwx85
    Do you fly for JetBlue?
  10. NJwx85
    Heavy rain is building in VA. That’s coming up here next 6-10 hours. Numerous FFW now.
  11. NJwx85
    It would be a bust for the rest of the area. I am expecting stronger winds than that and I am well inland.
  12. NJwx85
    Okay but you said max gust for your area would be 50mph with sustained in the 20's. If that verified the whole storm would be a bust.
  13. NJwx85
    Okay I'm not sure there's going to be a difference. The whole island is expected to get blasted, not just the South facing shore.
  14. NJwx85
    Yes probably overdone, but the signal is there. This is going to be an anomalous wind event.
  15. NJwx85
    From your own point and click forecast. Tonight Rain before 1am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then a chance of rain after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperature rising to around 55 by 1am. Windy, with a south wind 32 to 37 mph becoming south 24 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
  16. NJwx85
    18z 3k NAM showing peak sustained winds in the 40MPH winds as far West as Northeast NJ and the Hudson Valley. 50-60mph for the South shore of LI. That's sustained winds, not gusts.
  17. NJwx85
    Already 11 tornado reports today, most in Florida. Disney is going to get rocked in a few hours.
  18. NJwx85
    Most of the time we have a strong inversion here which prevents the winds from mixing down. That's what sets this even aside from others. We had a really intense wind event in late March of 2010 which was a rain storm but the 500mb low passed South and East of us. This is a much different setup synoptically so not much of a comparison but I think impacts could be similar. We had such a snowy February that year that there was still some snowpack in the hills and it was the beginning of a very active pattern for flooding that really didn't stop until 2013.
  19. NJwx85
    The NWS has flood watches, wind advisories and high wind warnings over the entire region. They have come out with very strong wording. Not sure what much else can be done. There were some mets on twitter yesterday downplaying the wind threat. Sending mixed messages even though you might disagree with the NWS is not great in my opinion and partially why the general public has become numb to warnings.
  20. NJwx85
    They have a lot of tornado damage in the Panhandle this morning.
  21. NJwx85
    No. I'm not a met and far from an expert with these things but looks well mixed.
  22. NJwx85
    The soundings are worrisome.
  23. NJwx85
    There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.
  24. NJwx85
    High res models, HRDPS, 3k NAM, FV3, ARW models indicating heaviest axis of rain over I-95 and points just to the North and West (2-4"+) with less amounts of 1-2" for the city South and East where the strongest winds will be.
  25. NJwx85
    I know it has been mentioned before, good storm threat a week from today. Probably the best chance of snow for the coast that we have seen in over a year.
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