NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Nothing run of the mill about a baroclinc forced SLP in mid May. If nothing else it's pretty cool to see a well developed CCB. This same run in January produces a blizzard.
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You can add the UKMET to that, although I love the rain hole right over Mt. Tolland as if Kevin hacked it.
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NAM is a soaker for most. Luckily for most of New England the heaviest rains fall overnight into Sunday morning. As the ULL closes off the NYC area gets plenty of wrap around moisture on Sunday afternoon.
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Looks like the nice stretch of weather arrives the middle of next week and lasts about 6-7 days before the next trough moves in.
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18z GFS is very wet for Southern and Eastern New England with a stripe of 3"+ over Eastern MA. The mid-level centers close off in a really good spot for New England. Reminds of a typical miller B.
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18z NAM said not so fast on the East push and it looks like the 18z GFS is going to follow suit. Models may have overcorrected East.
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Also if you just wanted to compare the 00z GEFS mean to the 06z mean, the 06z was clearly wetter, which tells me that it most likely had fewer progressive members.
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I think we've seen too much flip flopping to have confidence in any particular evolution. I've noticed with the last few systems that the 00z runs seem to trend progressive while the 12z runs have trended slower so we'll have to see if the seesaw continues today.
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The 00z Euro was much more progressive, but it was one run, and the GFS is sticking to its guns.
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The NAVGEM is on board
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It's not a phantom operational run. The ensembles continue to show a brief 1-3 day warm up around the 20th followed by a return to normal or slightly below normal. It's all a matter of how far East the building trough sets up.
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Ignore the guidance at your own peril. That massive warmup, if it does come looks transient.
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The 12z EPS mean looks mainly below normal temperature wise throughout the period. Even though a ridge does try to move East around the 20th it gets mostly shunted Southwest of NYC with a backdoor moving in for places East of the Hudson River.
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The EPS disagrees
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The EPS mean really hits Eastern New England with lots of wet weather days 5-10. About another 1-2" of rain from Hartford North and East.
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It's amazing how each time it appears the ULL is getting ready to move out on the EPS it just keeps reloading. In any event, temperatures look well below normal for at least the next ten days, possibly longer.
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The 12z EPS mean more or less stalls the ULL directly over Central New England as a ridge builds near Hudson Bay around day 6 and attempts to hook up with the building ridge over the Rockies.
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Yeah right now it looks like that might be confined to North of Boston, but if the ULL ends up closer to the mid-Atlantic rather than NYC it could get wetter for sure.
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So much for the Euro backing off the ULL. At 192 hrs the ULL is centered over Albany, after spending almost all weekend and early next week rotating around Southern and Central New England. Lots of self destruct days and below freezing 850mb temps for the entire period. In fact next Tuesday -4 to -8C 850mb temps make it as far South as the Delmarva.
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The GEFS mean keeps a mean trough in the East through almost May 20th. That's not to say that it's going to be well below average temperature wise or rainy the entire period, but it will keep the recent streak of warm anomalies in check.
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Kevin seems to be ignoring the fact that once the first ULL moves away, another one moves in behind it. The 12z GEFS agrees, and not only that, look at the way its been trending.
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Glad we didn't install
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The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.
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Agreed. And the run to run nuances regarding the different spokes of energy and shortwaves pinwheeling around the upper low certainly lead to a low confidence forecast. Long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another closed low in nearly the same position around day 10, so I certainly wouldn't be forecasting a ridge to return to the East anytime soon.
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On the 12z EPS mean the ULL finally is absorbed around day 10 with no real signs of a rebound until after May 15th.
