NJwx85

You can blame the Northern stream for eroding heights over the Western Atlantic. Get a grip. It's December 17th. Consider yourself lucky that you've already seen flakes this year.

56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded.

Surface temps busted by 2-3 degrees. Was expecting 20's overnight and instead we stayed right around 30-31. We warmed aloft quicker than I anticipated. Thought for sure we would have a solid few hours of moderate snow last night before any changeover. I have some elevation so I am actually closer to the mid-level warming if you think about it.

Short term model bust here. Usually things trend colder as the event is unfolding but the opposite occurred. I knew we were in trouble last night when things started off as a sleet/snow mix rather that just snow. Within an hour I was completely over to sleet. Ice accretion here was around 0.10" on normal surfaces and about 2-3 times that amount on cold surfaces such as cars and railings. Luckily we seem to have avoided a much bigger problem as temperatures were a couple of degrees warmer than forecasted.

Sleet here

Moderate snow here. Really coming down.

lol

Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same.

Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf.

Lots of wind and rain. It looks pretty fierce at 850mb. Need to see more panels between 216 and 240.

Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus.

Fun times ahead, maybe?

Both the 12z GFS and the ECMWF show an organized TC in the Southern Bahamas in the Day 9-10 time frame. Obviously a lot can change, including land interaction, but the setup is pretty intriguing for the East coast and New England with a well timed, relatively deep trough moving through the lakes. If the TC arrives early or the front speeds up, it could punt the storm OTS like the GFS. The Euro verbatim looks like it would be somewhat of a phase, similar to Floyd.

The Euro keeps 94L weaker much longer, but still eventually develops the system North of the islands in about a week. The question from here is does the ridge over the Eastern US hold and push the steer the storm towards Florida or does the incoming trough pull it North at the last minute?

It's the peak of Hurricane season. It would be abnormal if we didn't at least have a threat to track right now lol.

Had almost 5” of rain in Mahwah for the 11/2-11/3 storm.

PA tornado outbreak?

"Shaking felt thousands of miles away, devastation from Boston to DC as 8.0 magnitude Earthquake strikes along the Ramapo fault in NJ"

Is @HurricaneJosh still over in that region? If so, might as well hope over to Taiwan for the next one.

He hasn’t posted anything on Twitter or Facebook for roughly seven hours. He said he was about to lose all connectivity and he was still well outside the eyewall. Probably one of his most dangerous chases ever given the remote location and intensity.

DIX destroyed OKX this time around.

It's really annoying that KDIX is down again.

With the clocks going back this weekend we're really going to start dropping into the doldrums of late Autumn. We've been lucky that it's been a relatively dry and mild Autumn so far, however that looks to change, at least somewhat moving ahead. I'm playing golf on Saturday afternoon in an attempt to hold onto the last gasps of outdoor activities. So we're three weeks away from Thanksgiving and about 7 1/2 weeks away from Christmas, and then we start turning the corner as days begin getting longer once again. It will be a slow few weeks in January, especially if the Southeast ridge returns, which I strongly favor in my thinking. After that it's two weeks for pitchers and catchers, the Daytona 500 and away we go as the long awaited first signs of Spring begin to emerge. It's always a great feeling that first day in late March when you can open up the windows and breathe in the fresh air after being cooped up for the previous 14 weeks or so. I love snow as much as anyone, but I have no use for cold. And the older I get, the more and more I hate the Winter. I take solace in knowing that legitimate Winter in these parts is usually no more than a 12 week affair, and hopefully this year it will be even less.

Cold Winters are overrated and no guarantee for a Snowy season. How many times in recent history have we been stuck under the cold and dry PV while areas to the South and East got pounded with storm after storm? Plus who doesn't like breaking out the shorts for a few days in Mid-February? I love snow just as much as the next person, but I have no use for cold and dry.

Autumn sucks. I hope we stay in the 70's and 80's through at least the next few weeks.