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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42 Here's a link to the latest recon flight.
  2. NJwx85
    Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core.
  3. NJwx85
    Next panel is wild. 897mb. 160kts.
  4. NJwx85
    The initialization pressure is a joke, but it does show deepening in the 12-24 hours leading up to landfall. 965mb 00z Wednesday, 949mb 00z Thursday. Minimal dry air issues.
  5. NJwx85
    Translates to about 140kts at the surface.
  6. NJwx85
    The 06z HWRF never brings the center South of 22N which is already off based on the latest advisory position of 21.7N.
  7. NJwx85
    Noticed that the HWRF is showing much less dry air intrusion on final approach than what was being modeled on Saturday.
  8. NJwx85
    Jim Cantore also said at the time that it was the strongest Cat 1 he had ever experienced.
  9. NJwx85
    I believe there were forecasts that high in Texas associated with Hurricane Harvey.
  10. NJwx85
    This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.
  11. NJwx85
    Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping.
  12. NJwx85
    Going to be a lot of quick spin ups today East of the track.
  13. NJwx85
    Peak at 160kts.
  14. NJwx85
    I'm waiting to see what the Yankees do. Have tickets for the game tonight.
  15. NJwx85
    Spent the day in the Southern Bahamas, there were easily some 45-50kt gusts associated with rain squalls which began in the afternoon. Sea is angry and the ship has been rocking since yesterday. On our way to the Central Bahamas and Captain said it’s possible we might not be able to dock. Forecast is worse than what we experienced today.
  16. NJwx85
    I’m currently on a cruise ship about 30 NMI N of Hispaniola on a WNW heading. We’re going to pass about 10 NMI South of the Turks and Caicos later tonight. Seas were calm this morning, now 4-6 feet with rain squalls. There was lots of lightning last night as we passed Puerto Rico. Unfortunately we’re headed to the Bahamas and then Port Canaveral on Sunday. Hoping for a Southerly track.
  17. NJwx85
    Fingers crossed. Headed to the Caribbean and then the Bahamas.
  18. NJwx85
    Same at my house in Bardonia. Someone called into WFAN and reported golf ball sized hail in Croton from that cell. Also a tornado, but it probably wasn't an actual tornado.
  19. NJwx85
    Prime snow season ends around here the middle of next week. After that sun angle becomes a growing problem for anything that falls during the day. Heck, it was even somewhat of an issue yesterday in the immediate costal plain and the city.
  20. NJwx85
    We deserve a nice and mild start to Spring after the last few years.
  21. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM has a really solid event here. Around 0.2 to 0.3" QPF could easily be a 3-5" event with high ratios expected. There should be a quick moving area of enough lift to give a few hour burst of moderate to locally heavy snow.
  22. NJwx85
    I think we’re good for the next 4 hours or so. After that the back edge will be rapidly approaching.
  23. NJwx85
    I was pretty much on board with NYC snow yesterday but was skeptical that rates would be heavy enough along the coast to overcome BL issues enough to get over 6”. Clearly the models were too weak and too far South with the banding. Kudos to the GFS and Canadian models which never shifted like the Euro and NAM did. I always say how unstable the NAM is but people here love it because it often shows them what they want to see only to completely change most times a run later.
  24. NJwx85
    About 4” here so far on elevated cold surfaces like my patio table. About half that on the ground. Very light snow here currently and 30 degrees.
  25. NJwx85
    https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1757243488364560530?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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