Tend to agree. Even if it's a 20% watch issuance meso. Seems like there's an overall lack of deep layer shear to really congeal the activity, so it's probably just going to be decent pulsers with some wet microbursts.
Looks like 2 distinct clusters. Southern end that already had a warning on it and appears to have a verified LSR coming out. Second cluster near Cumberland. So far, that one looks decent.
Events like that are why I'm in favor of the Enhanced Risk category from SPC. Helps with those rando events where there's decent upside potential but it's not one of those "uh oh" events.
Yea, 1,500 SBCAPE, bit of a lee trough, good ll lapse rates, and okay mid level lapse rates. Also got a belt of 40kt shear. Maybe some sneaky storms in the NW suburbs today?
Only saving grace for many is having this system be a few hours early (can't maximize surface instability) and a bit more progressive than forecast. Otherwise, double digit rainfall totals might be more widespread.