Eskimo Joe

Pre gaming for an epic winter.

Looking like the 2nd landfall is becoming a real possibility.

Unless that's contaminated, looks like Ian is trying for Cat4

Hot

Got a map?

Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today: 1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas 2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall 3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC. 4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.

KNHC issues Vortex Data Message: 951 URNT12 KNHC 271749 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/17:07:10Z B. 23.36 DEG N 083.38 DEG W C. 700 MB 2713 M D. 957 MB E. 115 DEG 21 KT F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 101 KT I. 059 DEG 6 NM 17:05:00Z J. 146 DEG 101 KT K. 052 DEG 9 NM 17:04:00Z L. 96 KT M. 105 DEG 9 NM 17:11:00Z N. 199 DEG 109 KT O. 102 DEG 11 NM 17:11:30Z P. 9 C / 3056 M Q. 18 C / 3038 M R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 25 MAX FL WIND 109 KT 102 / 11 NM 17:11:30Z

Ian's eye clearing out quickly on visible satellite: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeseastabimesoscale1&regex=00p64um&title=GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2&time_drop=show

1st US landfall: Venice, FL, 135 mph winds. 2nd US landfall: Charleston, SC, 90 mph.

Developers got their way. Post Andrew, there was a building standard developed called the Miami-Dade Standard. It was designed to make residential and commercial structures more hurricane resilient. It began to take hold in Florida, but then the building association lobby got into the state legislature and killed it. Otherwise, it would have probably saved millions in Federal disaster reimbursement costs over the past 20 years.

Ian now doing gulf storm things

We truly live in a golden age of remote sensing and data archival.

Cool video from NOAA plane

KNHC issues Vortex Data Message NOTE: reporting closed eye 832 URNT12 KNHC 271612 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/15:46:30Z B. 23.13 DEG N 083.47 DEG W C. 700 MB 2746 M D. 961 MB E. 115 DEG 4 KT F. CLOSED G. C19 H. 92 KT I. 316 DEG 8 NM 15:44:00Z J. 041 DEG 82 KT K. 315 DEG 10 NM 15:43:30Z L. 82 KT M. 098 DEG 7 NM 15:49:00Z N. 186 DEG 107 KT O. 087 DEG 15 NM 15:51:00Z P. 7 C / 3035 M Q. 17 C / 3052 M R. 12 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 17 MAX FL WIND 107 KT 087 / 15 NM 15:51:00Z

Hey nice find, thanks for sharing.

ADT estimates aren't the greatest near land. Give it a few hours for the center to get back over water and the ADT will probably match the dropsondes better.

Hurricane Watches are being extended. Should see them populate on www.weather.gov shortly.

NHC issues Vortex Data Message: 83 URNT12 KNHC 271507 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/14:27:20Z B. 22.93 DEG N 083.50 DEG W C. 700 MB 2775 M D. 963 MB E. 150 DEG 5 KT F. NA G. C18 H. 75 KT I. 050 DEG 9 NM 14:24:30Z J. 135 DEG 89 KT K. 047 DEG 14 NM 14:23:00Z L. 78 KT M. 349 DEG 8 NM 14:34:00Z N. 093 DEG 87 KT O. 352 DEG 12 NM 14:35:00Z P. 8 C / 3061 M Q. 14 C / 3055 M R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.75 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 09 MAX FL WIND 94 KT 057 / 7 NM 13:03:30Z

Ian look impressive on visible and IR satellite. Gulf storm's gonna gulf storm.

From a WPC met: