Daniel Boone

Yeah true. Forgot about that oddity.

Euro clearly has a warm Seasonal bias. It has one even medium range albeit to a lesser degree.

Looks WPAC SST and Nina augmented. If the NEPAC continues cooling into Winter that outcome is very viable , imo.

Yeah, I agree. Think they're over playing the Nina. PDO is factored too . Highly doubt NEPAC SST'S are factored at all. Medium range continues to show cooling in that area so, who knows, maybe that's being further extrapolated by Seasonals. Due to that possibility, they could be extrapolating the WPO and EPO as well now. That would all favor pretty solid mildness as the WPAC is still very warm and medium range continues that pretty stable. There are also signs of the MJO hanging around P 6-7 mainly according to LR Guidance. So, SST extrapolation being factored irt that. I don't think the NATL SST'S are factored any at all at this Juncture by LR's. Maybe they do now. If so, I'd wager not highly factored.

Yeah. It appears to be keying on the Nina with that Aleutian Ridge. ENSO is the highest percentage Driver the LR's incorporate.

Yep. Hopefully not extreme warmth . Probably be more tropical mischief. Hopefully we get rain from that , if not could result in that extreme warmth. Typical first Freeze in Valley areas around here is the 10-15th. Use to be a bit earlier. If that off and on advertised mid month cold shot is not realized it's going to be late. Looking like a not so good foliage Season at my Local as the Leaves are dying and falling with no color orber than dark brown as if blight has hit them.

Yeah, not alot of correlation really.

Yeah, it's basically if the end is above in aerial coverage is what it boils down to.

Yeah, 2010-11 was an oddity. Every Forecast was for a mild to very mild Winter due to the moderate to strong Nina. Blocking was the big surprise and culprit for the non characteristic Nina Pattern. Same can be said for 95-96, although it was a weak Nina.

Yeah, looking like a great fall foliage Season over there. Not looking good here due to an extended dry period (2 weeks) that just ended. Some color now but many just brown, dead leaves falling.

If correct, sounds similar to last year.

Yeah, me too.

Yeah. As it stands now, the influence of the QBO on this Winter is a Mystery with the other Factors you mentioned and Other's in play.

Great. We wound up with .58" overnight .

That would be a nice repeat around here. Record cold and snow late November with average Snowfall the rest of Winter. The following Winter was horrendous as we all know. Only significant Snowfall (greater than 4") was in March.

Yeah, and those cold waters around Newfoundland. The West Pac is once again looking like a Thorn . So, rather competing Driver's. There'll probably be a large area of Ridging in the entire North Pacific this Winter. Probably will be shifting of the main core from West to East occasionally, or a split. Hopefully, we can keep decent ridging in the NEPAC and into AK and Yukon from the NEPAC warm SST'S. That is if you are Winter Wx Lover's. There should be blocking Episodes due to the cold pool around Newfoundland being conducive for 50-50 LP hangout there. QBO is a Mystery component this Winter imo. Up for debate since the SST Configuration and ENSO Status may alter it's affect one way or the other. Solar Flares and Sunspots may play a Role as well.

Wound up with almost a half iinch here today. A Station just east of Sneedville recorded 3.17 inches !

Enso is always their main source for their Seasonals, as we all know.

This guy's Idol has to be JB.

That's one none of us want unless you like an average Florida like January.

Exactly. With the dual area's, that would favor back and forth of HP Centering of which would produce periodic +PNA. Other Drivers would have to spring it moreso one way or the other.

Lol. Can't believe I did that ! Should wear my Reader's. Big Thumbs don't work too well texting.

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read.

Yeah, the real worry at this juncture is possible impending drought.

Yeah, some studies show that Correlation. Whether random coincidence or actual effect, probably not enough proof.