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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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GFS just spits out any solution there is under the Sun from run to run. "Upgrade"? More like, Downgrade.
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It was.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Its become complete utter junk, imo. It just shows any possible outcome run to run.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, should be at least a couple synoptic snow events the last half of the Month along with upslope events as well if the projected 500 pattern comes to fruition.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, the latest "upgrade" appears to really fouled some things up. For one, they over compensated for it's " cold bias". Apparently didn't do anything irt how it doesn't work well with blocking. Other things they've tampered with appear to be evident as well.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, enso is heavily weighted by them.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
You got that right Buddy. Looks promising for much of the area having a white Christmas actually.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I remember that being the case. We were fortunate up this way. Wise in Wise County broke the State Seasonal Record that year; 123.4 inches ! I recorded 52" in Pennington gap here in Lee County ( not a record here ) . The 60's was a snowy decade for the area. Nina, Nino, -PDO, -PNA, it didn't matter, lol- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That is actually a probable solution with strong blocking. Even a further South track is possible but, most likely not this go around. It would be nice to finally get into a 95-95 type pattern. Several Miller B transfers of which tracked far to the South.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
A little confidence builder; the 1960's featured several -PDO, -PNA, -NAO combo Winter's and they weren't too shabby Snowfall wise.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, hopefully the deep cold will come far enough east to get us on the cold side of the boundary.- 582 replies
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
IF the projected Pattern pans out, the CMC would be the winner at range irt the Operationals. It has constantly projected the very cold Pattern. -
December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's really a shame the anticipated blocking hasn't threw the Nina off kilter much. So far, about all it's done is help with the moisture transport into our area. It is possible had the Blocking not setup we'd be dry and warm with a huge SE Ridge dominating.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, sure looking more and more like a Plains/ Rockies Winter. It may translate East to encompass areas similar to last Winter and year before.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
We'll call it the Woke Hack.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, it's absolutely fouled up. It was bad enough before but, this takes the cake, lol. Looks like it's been hijacked by the Climate agenda money milking bunch.- 582 replies
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wow! you all are getting slammed. so far just about an inch and a quarter here the last couple days. hopefully, we get 2 to 3" more.
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Speaking of cold biases, the new gfs upgrade tweaked it's somewhat still cold bias... A little too much it appears.- 582 replies
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Yeah, really wondering what they di with the gfs upgrade. Makes you curious to whether they felt there was still a cold bias and adjusted to that too much.
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am in the same boat as you . Delayed changes always makes me skiddish and less confident. My guess is it will occur but, may be similar to the last cool spell in duration. Could be a cycle until the nina weakens and the MJO can excert more influence in the western PAC to change things up. It is possible due to that prospect alone, mid/late Winter may be better than many believe.- 582 replies
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
You can bet the weather outlets, apps and even most NWSFO's are going with the GFS . -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yep. Typically what happens when a block sets up. Models usually adjust south with Systems as well. Our biggest worry is a connect with the SER and -NAO. If that doesn't happen we may be in business in a week to 10 days snow wise. -
December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice to have you interacting. You bring some great input.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good seeing you on here Gate City representative beeb awhile.- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm the same way, lol- 582 replies
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