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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Archambault Theory ftw ! Happy Thanksgiving Brother !
  2. Daniel Boone
    Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah it was here too. The Valentines day Storm was 6-9" in Valley locations here . A Miller A. Several 2-4 inch deals in January, mainly Clippers as I recall.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, makes sense. That's probably what it's reacting to.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Arctic air being shown draining farther west in Canada and Northern Rockies. Need a strong HP drop down in conjunction with a strong system to pull it SE. Some Models also showing Aleutian ridging by day 10 and trough moving westward. That's a Nina signature. Aleutian Ridge. Hopefully it winds up further east into Alaska. We need upstream blocking to establish and counter . JB used to say, without a block colds not a lock.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well.
  7. Daniel Boone
    It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though.
  8. Daniel Boone
    It was. We had a record snowy February in 2015. I recorded about 34 inches in Jonesville. Northern section's of Lee County over 50" !
  9. Daniel Boone
    I'd forgot about what year that happened in Atlanta but, yeah that was one heck of a cold January ! Feb 2015 had the big +TNH Pattern as well and was historic here snowfall and cold wise.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. That's what I had read up on too. Interesting. So, if Webb's right about the ABNA and the greater likelihood of a + TNH Lanina could work out fine for us.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Map looks to be showing hidson bay to Greenland blocking signature. Has Lp look near 50-50. That would probably need adjusted West of there if the SST'S are same then as now. Looks like an Aleutian Ridge. That may be or be further East. Should oscillate during Winter imo. due to the +QBO and ABNA if it manifests through the Winter at times.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, exactly what we want.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, not a good sign. Hopefully things revert.
  14. Daniel Boone
    If the " cold" pattern we're going into lessens in severity or longevity, that will be crucial in determining what kind of Winter ensues i.m.o.. Also, it is possible even if it lasts until late Month ala,1989. If I remember correctly, blocking broke down then and allowed the Western Ridge to suddenly come East. That MJO Plot is still worrisome as it usally Trump's other Drivers if they're not very prominent or if the MJO Wave itself is very weak low Amp.. As rehashed in earlier post, hopefully Webb is onto something and it plays out if you want at least an average Winter overal imo.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Check out Eric Webbs Write-up regarding how that might not work out like usual on X. The +TNH Pattern. The ABNA Connection. I'm not sold on it totally changing the MJO effects but, his research shows possibility.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Notice I said at time's. Also, the possibility of continual LP formation or strengthening off the NE and SE Provinces can act as a blocking mechanism and alter that eastward Ridge progression. That was one aspect of Feb 2015 . Continual LP development that worked in conjunction with the postive NAO in pulling Arctic air from the Arctic South into the Eastern States. Sort of opposite of the weird SER/-NAO Linkage.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Agree. On either pattern, whether the mild most of us were basically sold on or the possible one upcoming.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Exactly.
  19. Daniel Boone
    An excerpt from Webb on X : While there are many reasons this winter is starting out so cold in the Eastern US this year… Imo, the -EPO/+TNH pattern in early Dec is largely being driven by low frequency variability (not the MJO) from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Namely, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is rectifying long-term observed changes since the early-mid 20th century that conflict with most climate model forecasts: the Indian & West Pacific oceans warming at a faster rate than the East-Central Pacific (in part as a response to AGW), which changes the downstream waveguide over the N Pacific & N America to resemble the +TNH pattern.
  20. Daniel Boone
    The Snow mizers looking at that blob in the Atlantic, lol
  21. Daniel Boone
    Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days !
  23. Daniel Boone
    If blocking manifests the 2nd half of December it could help mitigate the effects of Trough westward retrogression being shown late Month. The SST'S just south of Newfoundland and around Nova Scotia is supportive of LP in that area. That could help pull the Urals HP on Southwestward and pop a legit -NAO. Just my rusty, relic has been opinion.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's : The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's right. It's listed in the NOAA Archives.The 40's featured a big one as well.
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