The Iceman

Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell.

Looks like the flash flood watches should be extended into the lehigh valley and cut further south. Pretty clear how this event is shaping up and it's n and w of 95.

We got a squall near the end that brought the heaviest wind, I wish I saved the radar grab. It was like a severe thunderstorm for 20 mins. Then it passed and we got the backside winds but they weren't nearly as strong as that last squall. I want to say it remained in the 30-40 MPH range after the rain ended. It was a really tense 20 mins or so though and it really tore my area up.

My cousin went down to his place in Cape May and took this video at the height of the storm: https://www.instagram.com/p/CDgZyfSJN4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Finished with 3.14" of rain in Hopewell. The real story though ended up being the wind. Multiple large trees down on my street. Power not expected back until August 9. Trenton recorded a 58 mph gust but I'd estimate we saw a bit higher than that. Looked more in the 70 mph range but I don't have my weather station set up yet at the new house so it will remain a mystery. Really great little storm that exceeded my expectations.

Mt Holly thinking the winds could overperform inland

12z Euro is the ideal track for heavy rain. Low tracks right through NJ, albeit as a tropical storm. Deluges the entire area though. Pretty evident ticks west continue across all guidance.

Very pleasant evening... perfect for the fire pit. Currently 70F with a dew point of 48F.

Thinking today will be the first 90 in many locations.

6z 3k NAM for later this evening... Round 3?

Very surprised the derecho was uneventful for you. Lots of damage across lower bucks county.

Can't wait to check my weather station when I get home to see what kind of wind gusts were recorded. 64 MPH reported about 5 miles to my south in Bristol.

The HRRR brings a round 2 complex through SE PA in the 23z-00z time frame. Doesn't look nearly as potent as what just came through though. Other meso's are more potent this evening but none of them had this morning's complex as organized as it became. I'm a bit skeptical that the atmosphere can recover in time for another round of severe. However, another round of heavy showers with a rumble or 2 doesn't seem out of the question this evening.

Peco reporting almost 250K outages already based out their outage map. Edit: Up to 320K+ on the last update.

Here at work in Trenton, sky got pitch black and we got some pretty decent wind gust. I would estimate in the 50 MPH range, will be interesting to see what the airport reports. All in all not too bad of a boomer and we still have power at the office. 95% chance it's out at my house lol

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.