gymengineer

It was showing in the 80,000’s when the 100,000-240,000 number was being thrown out by the task force. It went up to the 90,000’s, dropped down to around 60,000 and now is up to around 68,800. There were articles written about how no one could figure out where the 100,000 to 240,000 range came from. In any case, the model is not working out on the back side of the peak for Italy and Spain. The model is incapable of showing a gradual descent.

Albeit not by much, the IHME model actually went up the last two updates.

What Alexandria City P.S. is doing for grading in the 4th quarter is that it is pass/no record for secondary students (grades 6-12). So as long as a student earns a 60% or higher, 4th quarter counts as a pass at a flat 100%, with the 4 quarters being 25% each in weight (e.g. (72+68+75+100)/4)). If the student doesn't hit 60%, then 4th quarter does not exist grade-wise, which means the three previous quarters factor in 1/3 each for determining the final percent.

This twitter thread gets at what a couple of us have been saying about the IHME model’s limitations on getting the backside of the curve correct based on data from Spain, Italy, and now New York: https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250369165984010241 (Click on the tweet #26 itself to see the rest of the thread)

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th.

Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)?

This article explains the almost unimaginable changes to our collective experience contained in each of the major “how to open back up” plans: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

The thing about the IHME model that is striking to me is how quickly it projects the backside of the curve of daily deaths to plunge towards zero. Today was modeled to be in the 420’s for both Italy and Spain. Granted, daily death counts still are reflecting a catching-up, but Italy’s was 542 today while Spain spiked again up to 757. The model is showing both countries dropping to under 100 daily deaths in 11 to 13 days. This backside of the curve for each country/region is really going to be significant in determining the final death toll. If it’s not as sharp as in the IHME model, that model’s projection will be too low.

So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness.

I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OLC-Interpretive-Guidance-COVID19-07.pdf See the second paragraph. Restaurants can continue to do carry-out/pickup. Non-essential businesses can no longer continue pickups.

For physics teachers, this is a great opportunity to apply physics to get your circle of influence to understand what’s going on. d vs t graph- derivative is v vs t. A constant v vs t means a linear d vs t graph. A constant non-zero a vs t graph means a linear v vs t and a curved d vs t graph. Once we have to introduce the concept of “jerk,” which will show as a changing a vs t graph, the ripples through the v vs t and d vs t graphs can be complicated to understand. US deaths represented by graph format is currently into “jerk” territory in terms of physics terms.

Here’s a COVID-19 tracking site that’s been pretty good in terms of matching the MD/DC/VA numbers, and other state numbers: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en The most startling graphic is the one showing the continued exponential growth in deaths, because that figure is less sensitive to testing capacity (the most sick have had the greatest access to tests, other than VIPs apparently). When the dark blue death-per-day line itself starts showing non-linear growth like the last few days, that’s the sign that things are going not well at all.

Did you ever calculate what 3% or 1% or even 0.5% of 58 million was before posting?

My partner was able to go liquor shopping on Friday during the day while I was at the office for the last day until further notice. He picked up 7 liters of potato vodka, 3.5 liters of Tanqueray gin, 1.75 liters of Jameson whiskey, and restocked our Cointreau. That should tide us over for 3 weeks. We accidentally ordered 144 rolls of toilet paper by mail late last year so we are still all set in that department.

Well the big one that is legendary in that regard is 59/60. Snow season basically started with a storm on 2/13/60 and then three significant events in March For BWI: 8.2" 2/13-14/60; 0.5" 2/21/60; 2.0" 2/25/60; 10.5" 3/2-4/60; 5.9" 3/9-10/60; 5.1" 3/16/60. There were 12 snow cover days that March.

Once you add those totals in, you actually have 6 seasons above average, not 3.

It's not the 1960's, but having lived through the 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's and reviewed the stats on the 1970's, I would always prefer the past 10 snow seasons. Yes, it includes 09/10 to start. Then 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 were three very different ways to get to above average. The 2016 blizzard was the best single storm in my lifetime at my location. The 70's through the 00's had plenty of crap seasons for the three airports too, so nothing about 16/17 and 17/18 really phased me. If you can get through 75/76 or 80/81 or 88/89 or the 96/97-97/98 combo or 01/02 or 07/08 or multiple other horrid seasons without dying, then 16/17 or 17/18 are just part of the deal of being in this area. Probably the dividing line for looking at the past 10 seasons is last season. Of course the immediate DC area got in on the 10-12" storm, which the morning after still had the feel of "This was a big one."

I’ve always taken the long game as a DC area lifer and I’ve described both good and bleak stretches of DC area snow history. Newspapers did their Decade review heading into 2020 with the CWG opting to fold the 2010 part of 2009-2010 into their decade review So this is the simplest start of the review of the past 10 winters. I can break it down much more if people have questions. The past 10 snow seasons’ average: IAD: 27.2” (above average) DCA: 17.2” (above average) BWI: 24.1” (above average) Number of the past 10 snow seasons that were above average: IAD: 5 DCA: 5 BWI: 4 In other words, just wait and you’ll have a good snow year in our current snow regime.... in spite of any reactionary meltdown every week.

Thanks. Makes sense.

Folks, who is RevWarReenactor? A known troll or a new troll?

Pouring snowflakes here! Magical outside right now in North Bethesda.

You meant NAMasies for fantasies right? Even so, I think NAMasties captures the spirit of the model better.

10th highest water level in Annapolis today: https://mobile.twitter.com/rms5539/status/1183131064304308224