gymengineer

I’m glad the Wilmington radar just came back online. To be missing both that and the Moorehead City one would make tracking these training cells much more difficult.

Other than Isaac before it got upgraded to a hurricane, this must be the highest storm surge forecast for a tropical storm. STORM SURGE: The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft

Cape Fear River at Wilmington just beat the record crest from Matthew in 2016.

Check out Hurricane Diana (1984).

Yes, please just go to bed and stop posting on this forum.

I hope Ian doesn't mind me posting this here- this is on his website from a couple of years ago: D.C.’s double-digit snowstorms: A history and guide to the patterns that produced them

The Greenland block is so strong in the other five events that PDII's decidedly different look didn't even water it down in your composite map. I think 02/03 is a fun season to look at because even less than 'lock and loaded' DC looks-- including you pointing out how the 12/02 and the early 2/03 moderate events happened- yielded an extreme seasonal total.

Great to see. I've really appreciated your posts, particularly reminding the subforum that the past two winters weren't a 'disaster' for many parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Drunk? lower case writing, weird non-factual phrasings, etc.

As its just south of Tokyo 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

For me, it would be a radar loop of Carol making landfall. Perhaps the most purely tropical hit of the famous New England storms?

That Sampit River boat reading of 120 mph (~60 ft elevation) would again support a higher maximum gust estimate in the RMW zone. Since I support the NHC's assigned landfall intensity, the other data indicating Category 4 is what made his wind map based on damage to trees and structures stand out as an outlier. Hmm, to add some more confusion, this other map does not match the original one I imbedded. It's somehow tied to Fujita as well, but has a zone of 145 mph+ gusts:

Here's one: Hugo was clearly a Category 4 in its SC landfall based on recon data. The wind map of peak gusts created by Fujita himself was strangely tepid in the eyewall zone. It's even more curious since the Fujita scale wind increments would later be *lowered* after his death, meaning his own estimates of wind speeds corresponding to levels of damage were deemed as over-estimates.

The firm AIR is estimating 40-85 billion dollars in just insured damage from Maria and noting more than half of Puerto Rico's residences are uninsured. That's higher than their estimate for the other two hurricanes. Katrina's insured damage was 41 billion. https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJ/status/912426508538572801

The damage videos show widespread roof-off/collapsed buildings across the entire width of the island. It's hard to find examples of Atlantic storms that have caused this type of high-end wind damage upon as large a population.

Starting from a different longitude, but Cleo 1964:

The San Felipe II hurricane in 1928. Reanalysis kept the 140 kt landfall at 931 mb. It was a much larger hurricane than Maria.

Yup, local geography really matters. For example, people reflexively thought that New Orleans being on the left side of Katrina would diminish impact. But the 15-19' storm surge in the eastern part of the city is not far from the top end event (ESE to WNW path just south of the city) because that north wind across a body of water as large as Lake Pontchartrain really effectively piled up the water.

Yup, I'm agreeing with you that San Juan right now look more likely to be on the right side of the hurricane than the left side, as some of those hurricane models are showing. We go to San Juan at least twice a year, always staying at La Concha. The NHC is forecasting 6-9' surge, which is a pretty extreme event for the island. Hugo, for reference, was a 2-3' storm surge along the north coast of PR.

Remember, the NHC track is on the southern edge of those hurricane model tracks. So far, Maria is almost spot on following the NHC's track, which has landfall on the southeastern coast of the island.

IAD pulled off 0.6" today-- must be from the squalls. They are now 0.6" away from a tie.

It melted on paved surfaces soon after sunrise, and by late March, the sun is up during most people's commute. So you're definitely right that it had minimal commuting impacts. I just enjoy a moderate snowstorm no matter what time of year. Seeing grass completely covered makes me happy.

Wait, how did it accumulate on streets here and not where you are? See the photos from Wheaton and Savage: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/25/beautiful-spring-snow-blankets-washington-d-c-area/ I'm pretty sure Matt has posted pics of snow on paved surfaces in DC that early morning too.

And I will still enjoy that 3" slop storm. I have very pleasant memories of 3/24-25/13. My jumping date is 4/7 in any winter-- the end date of the last ground covering snow in my lifetime. (1990- 3.8" at IAD)