gymengineer

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th.

Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)?

This article explains the almost unimaginable changes to our collective experience contained in each of the major “how to open back up” plans: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

The thing about the IHME model that is striking to me is how quickly it projects the backside of the curve of daily deaths to plunge towards zero. Today was modeled to be in the 420’s for both Italy and Spain. Granted, daily death counts still are reflecting a catching-up, but Italy’s was 542 today while Spain spiked again up to 757. The model is showing both countries dropping to under 100 daily deaths in 11 to 13 days. This backside of the curve for each country/region is really going to be significant in determining the final death toll. If it’s not as sharp as in the IHME model, that model’s projection will be too low.

So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness.

I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

I’m following a curated meteorologist twitter list for Dorian. I’ve never seen meteorologists rage tweeting like right now.

It can’t be a bad sign heading into an even better pattern that the two serviceable windows this season have so efficiently given our subforum two 10”+ snowstorms. Richmond wasn’t locked in for their 11” heading into the event either. These are some juiced up storms.

Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust.

Great to see. I've really appreciated your posts, particularly reminding the subforum that the past two winters weren't a 'disaster' for many parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Drunk? lower case writing, weird non-factual phrasings, etc.

As its just south of Tokyo 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

For me, it would be a radar loop of Carol making landfall. Perhaps the most purely tropical hit of the famous New England storms?

That Sampit River boat reading of 120 mph (~60 ft elevation) would again support a higher maximum gust estimate in the RMW zone. Since I support the NHC's assigned landfall intensity, the other data indicating Category 4 is what made his wind map based on damage to trees and structures stand out as an outlier. Hmm, to add some more confusion, this other map does not match the original one I imbedded. It's somehow tied to Fujita as well, but has a zone of 145 mph+ gusts:

Here's one: Hugo was clearly a Category 4 in its SC landfall based on recon data. The wind map of peak gusts created by Fujita himself was strangely tepid in the eyewall zone. It's even more curious since the Fujita scale wind increments would later be *lowered* after his death, meaning his own estimates of wind speeds corresponding to levels of damage were deemed as over-estimates.

IAD pulled off 0.6" today-- must be from the squalls. They are now 0.6" away from a tie.

It melted on paved surfaces soon after sunrise, and by late March, the sun is up during most people's commute. So you're definitely right that it had minimal commuting impacts. I just enjoy a moderate snowstorm no matter what time of year. Seeing grass completely covered makes me happy.

Wait, how did it accumulate on streets here and not where you are? See the photos from Wheaton and Savage: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/25/beautiful-spring-snow-blankets-washington-d-c-area/ I'm pretty sure Matt has posted pics of snow on paved surfaces in DC that early morning too.

And I will still enjoy that 3" slop storm. I have very pleasant memories of 3/24-25/13. My jumping date is 4/7 in any winter-- the end date of the last ground covering snow in my lifetime. (1990- 3.8" at IAD)

Area is one measure. Population impacted is another. There's mixed data for the two, but again, based on what everyone is describing in this thread, it all comes down to what the storms did in each person's backyard. Here's NCDC's population data (compiled for the RSI) that I posted in another thread, normalized to the 2010 census data: For population affected by >=20": 1) 1/96: 28,928,278 2) 1/16: 21,000,936 3) 2/03: 19,242,275 4) 12/47: 13,501,073 5) 2/13: 10,662,789 For population affected by >=30": 1) 2/69 (late February New England storm): 2,009,520 2) 11/50: 1,207,570 3) 2/78: 1,169,430 4) 1/16: 1,121,182 5) 3/93: 729,753 6) late 2/10 (the NY storm): 677,436 7) 1/66 (including lake effect): 611,484 8) looks off with a huge spread in dates (2/25/1900- 3/2/1900): 526,154 9) 1/96: 493,778 So from the NCDC data, 1/96 and 1/16 were the most widespread 20"+ population impacts for northeastern snowstorms. And 1/16 more than doubled 1/96's population affected by 30". Of course, the NYC area covered a lot of the population, but both 1/96 and 1/16 were 20"+ storms for the NYC area.

I'm just curious about how you decided on these rankings, because I also am able to rank all of these storms in a western suburb of DC. Was 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 being ranked higher than 1/16 partly because of what happened after the storm's end? I've said elsewhere that I can't separate the second 2/10 storm from the first one in terms of how the experience went overall, and the same goes with the whole 1/6/96 to 1/12/96 period. So of course those would be better winter weather weeks than the week of 1/16. But if I had to pick which one was the best in isolation, every indicator for 1/16 (total snow, winds, drifts) was just a bit better than 1/96. 2/5-6/10 still had the greatest impact of any storm I've lived through because of the 30-hr power outage in addition to being stuck.

Pretty darn close--- remember NCDC's NESIS maps are "stingy" for all events, so they compare ok with each other. The biggest differences are SW VA and New England.

True. 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 were tied for me. I couldn't pick between the two even though 2/5-6/10 was greater in snowfall. But, then it's hard to answer a poll like this because of course it comes down to what one experienced in their own location.

Gotcha-- so extending outside of the Mid-Atlantic region (the poll's wording) too. 1/96 definitely had a bigger impact further SW through all of VA. And this storm had the 30" line further east in the metro regions. For due-west of the metro regions (so Frederick County, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Frederick County, VA/Winchester), 1/16 looks to be a bit more. We could go county-by-county and have different answers to the poll.