gymengineer

For those of you trying to remember how the model runs in the lead up to 1/2016 looked, this forecast review article from the CWG has links to their articles starting from 8 days before the storm. There are quite a few individual model runs referenced throughout: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/

Sidewalk and side street covered here in North Bethesda.

Snow mixed in now in North Bethesda.

I was in Potomac, MD, for the event. It was on 11/11/95, and like you, I lost power. We lost power during the severe thunderstorm part of the event pre front clearance, but power came back during the snow. 2” accumulated where I was. 3/8/05 was another such type of frontal passage where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning preceded a rapid change to snow that covered the grass. 2/14/15 was the ultimate flash freeze frontal passage, but wasn’t preceded by actual severe weather. We do much better with the ENE oriented strong cold front passages with the following wave. Those have been WSW events for us. Just in March, we saw those events 3/8/96, 3/3/14, 3/5/15, etc.

Without going too far back, DC also had notable (WSW criteria) snowstorms 12/31-1/1/71, 1/4-5/80, and 1/8/88. 1/77 had a 3-day sequence early in the month that would total WSW as well but they weren’t all one storm.

Are you sure you meant to go all the way to January 9th?

Top analog was 12” at IAD and the second one was DCA’s highest Christmas Day snow depth of 7”, eventually tied by 12/09.

For those who like looking back at snow maps, 850 and 500 mb analyses, etc from past events, just a reminder that Ray Martin’s winter storm page covers a lot of the events we experienced from 1993-2013. His is NJ centered, but most of our events are there: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

Mobile Regional Airport: another 90+ gust, now well east of the center.

And add Biloxi to the list. A Cat 1 hurricane would not likely be generating 90+ mph gusts in numerous sites 4 hours after landfall across a west to east swath of coastline. Yes, the strengthening was key.

Both Waveland and Gulfport MS gusting over 90 mph— not something many would have predicted this morning.

Orleans parish at 70% outage now. Once again (happened with Delta too), a rainless south side of a halfacane delivers on the winds.

And FOX8 just recorded 90 mph on the rainless back side.

New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation. This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip.

That poster was referring to Frances and Jeanne in 2004, and like only 2 miles apart in landfall location.

Actually Delta has laid a pretty big footprint of recorded hurricane force gusts stretching from eastern TX through central LA. KBPT (Beaumont/Port Arthur) gusted above 80 mph as did KARA (Arcadiana Regional Airport), and plenty of sites in between.

The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast.

Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html

Unless you really mean that an entire country should be blown up, why say so?

It’s not a competition, fellow school system instructional specialist But I didn’t show what’s already in the cabinet underneath in my previous post.

This one? http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=618 It wasn’t late in the month but it’s the first one that comes to mind. 30” at Mt. Mitchell.

We realized we could get Instacart liquor delivery from Costco two days ago. That’s a game changer for us as the liquor store was worse than anywhere else we’ve been in terms of people being able to maintain distance inside. We taste tested the two types of vodkas, the gin, and the wine. Kirkland brands will do fine for us, and now we can cross off the liquor store as the last remaining destination.

Is KGAI data not useable?

It’s terrible. We all know where the people who post incessantly in it stand. I think earlier on, it represented more of the 80/20 divide in the country. Now it’s just everything must be reacted to all the time. It’s a useless thread for communicating.

But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago. Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York: https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009