snowman19

Yep. That STJ signal is only going to get stronger over the next 4 weeks with the MJO wave coupling, big WWB, +AAM flip and strong Nino convection really starting to fire. The OHC is up to +1.65 and the subsurface warming from the DWKW has been extremely impressive. Think we are about to see an imminent major uptick in region 3.4 temps

Still trying to figure out where a certain someone thinks all this frigid arctic cold is going to come from being that it’s all on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well. Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging. Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

Proof that we can be mild with PAC air despite -AO/-NAO

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks

The PAC “wakes up” in a very big way real soon…constructive MJO interference/WWB/+AAM….should lead to rapid intensification and warming

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? Why are you so confident there is going to be this massive drop in SSTs? So you are predicting a very huge trade wind burst then I guess? I mean in fairness, you have been minimizing this event for months. I understand why you didn’t want to see this get as strong as it is now

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol

Unmmm ok? Since region 3.4 is over +2.15C right now. The new WWB doesn’t have to be as strong as this last one, which was extremely strong, it pushed the +30C warm pool east of the dateline, triggered a massive DWKW that caused huge subsurface warming and a very big increase in the OHC. It won’t take much now to push region 3.4 to +2.4C on a weekly reading once the constructive interference from the MJO occurs since it literally has less than +0.3 to go @Mitchnick Why are you so worried that it may go officially trimonthly super ONI (which looks very likely) Mitch?

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

Nino 3.4 has warmed again on OISST…up to +2.15C

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Your warm December idea may work out after all Ray lol Maybe don’t abandon it yet

Given the current anomalies and subsurface, I don’t think we will have any problem warming to a trimonthly super ONI next month….the signal for the MJO coupling event with another strong WWB/DWKW by the end of the month is getting stronger and stronger. Also will be interesting to see how high the OHC adjusts for this month as a whole

FWIW…

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month Mitch. 3.4 is already +2C right now @bluewave Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Margusity, Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

@Jbenedet The final El Niño strengthening/warming period looks to be roughly 12/10 - 12/31 (late December) when the MJO enters the Pacific, constructively interferes and causes what should be a very substantial WWB and DWKW. It will have an extremely warm subsurface and OHC to work with. Think this is when the trimonthly super ONI is achieved

@Gawx As suspected, Nino region 3.4 warmed back up over +2C on OISST so temporary day to day flux like we thought https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Also, strong +IOD still in place, looks like it’s going to stay positive until sometime later in January when it reaches neutral:

This is going to be one of the strongest El Niños since 1980. In the top 4 in the last 43+ years actually. This one will go down with the big guns (82-83, 97-98, 15-16). It may get close to 82-83’s strength when all is said and done, but I think it takes 4th place, maybe not by much. 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 23-24, in that order. Just looking at what this El Niño has done to the global heat budget…moved the +30C warm pool east of the dateline through a massive (record) WWB and DWKW, +2C SSTs in Nino regions 1+2, 3, 3.4….if anyone thinks a Nino of this strength would stay “uncoupled” then I don’t know what to say (don’t think anyone here is suggesting that?). That would be completely delusional. No one should make any mistake about it, this Nino will make its presence felt in a HUGE way this winter. It will be the main player, by far and the atmospheric response will be overwhelming and I’d have to agree it will be extreme. This is a real good illustration of just how intense this event is:

@GaWx This is a testament to just how strong this event is: