snowman19

Don’t disagree that they can have *some* stratospheric impact, however if you want a classic “Pinatubo” stratosphere, with the biggest effect, you want a tropical volcanic eruption greater than a VEI 5

Even a very strong El Niño couldn’t flip the PDO, it actually got more strongly negative. With a La Niña developing, I very seriously doubt TC’s moving through are going to do anything but cause transient, temporary cooling then right back to the marine heatwave. We’ve seen this happen already. SSTs that anomalously warm aren’t just going away, it would take months of a constant assault. The North Pacific High just keeps rebuilding over and over, as long as that feedback cycle continues, the PDO is going to continue to be strongly negative. The PMM also failed to respond to the Nino, that was one of the reasons for the huge disconnect with the MEI last winter. We’ve also heard how many times now that the AMO is about to flip negative, when in fact it’s just gotten stronger positive. Kind of like how JB has been saying that arctic sea ice is going to increase lol It’s akin to the MJO….how many times in the last 5+ years have we seen failed attempt after failed attempt at phases 8-1-2? It just stays in phases 4-6….why? Because that’s where the warmest SSTs are. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest SSTs are despite what a climate model or even ENSO may say as we saw last winter. Now that the IOD is going negative along with a Niña, that just gives more support of the MJO in those phases On an unrelated note, I know you follow it, but it looks like the sunspot number for August is going to be over 230. Also appears that the QBO is going to see a rather large rise this month Edit: @40/70 Benchmark I don’t think a volcanic eruption that far north would have an effect on the stratosphere even if it were June. Tropical volcanoes are the ones that do it

I believe to have a significant climate effect it needs to be a tropical volcano that reaches the stratosphere with a VEI of “high-end” 5 or above. I defer to @Volcanic Winter

I would be shocked if we don’t see a trimonthly weak La Niña (ONI). Cold-neutral is a given, that’s happening and IMO the probability of a weak La Niña is growing more and more likely by the day

Nothing to stop it either. Niña/-IOD favors it right there (MC)

We are outperforming the solar prediction made by NOAA at the beginning of this month by so much it’s not funny. Both sunspots and solar flux. Geomag is also way overperforming original predictions

*Take note*

The MEI shows how well the atmosphere is coupled to ENSO. Given the new data, I’m more confident than ever that even if we end up with a cold-neutral/La Nada ONI, the synoptic pattern won’t reflect that

@Raindancewx Even if the ONI does in fact stay cold-neutral this winter, the atmosphere wants to be in La Niña mode. The MEI, OLR, AAM, tropical forcing/MJO are all solidly in Niña territory

It was absolutely the PDO, especially 14-15, when it was off the charts positive. Even though the PDO was technically negative for 13-14, the configuration basically mirrored a +PDO. Bluewave pointed that out about a month ago. That winter was classic +TNH

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

If this winter does go cold-neutral ENSO, then we are at the mercy of a very high solar flux/geomag, strong -PDO, -PMM, a relentless MJO in phases 4-6, -IOD, ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, low arctic sea ice, etc. I don’t see how that would end well….

I’m seeing 1983-84 popping up as an analog on twitter and I get why…people want the very cold December. There are major problems with it though, first and foremost it was +PDO, second, it was volcanic. I guess you can make the argument that we had the major eruptions back in April, however, this year is not on the level of a 1983 or a Pinatubo volcanic stratosphere

In addition, it was a weak +QBO and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive

The Nina’s with +QBO/low solar are, the ones with high solar are the least, obviously Nina’s with -QBO/low solar are the most

The developing “Atlantic Niña” may be playing a role too

Let’s see what the EWB does, maybe it triggers another upwelling Kelvin Wave. IMO the worst case scenario for this winter would be Niña fail, central-based cold-neutral ENSO given the predominant MJO 4-6 and the PDO/QBO/solar states

I apologize to everyone. I have been working double shifts at my job for over a year now. Between the wedding and buying a house, my wife and I have been struggling. Over the last week, I’ve been operating on next to zero sleep and my patience with everything has been running thin. Again, my apologies

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

Yea and I wonder if this throws a monkey wrench into the rest of this season:

The issue with using 1983-84 is that was a volcanic winter, very volcanic stratosphere. That said and this has been discussed here, does the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang eruptions we had back in April have any effects on the stratosphere? Those were traditional sulfate aerosol eruptions and they reached the stratosphere. Obviously they weren’t a Pinatubo or a 1983. My guess is that they have “some” effect and magnify the La Niña/+QBO/high solar effects on the stratosphere this winter Edit: 83-84 was also a +PDO winter. IMO should not be used as an analog

That’s a very strong signal and it goes right into March too. Also, no semblance at all of “east-based” Niña forcing, not that this event was ever projected to be one anyway