snowman19

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1690114388198658052?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I think one of the big factors back in the 15-16 winter was the insanely positive PDO, the GOA and western North American coast were on fire, IMO that lead to the temporary bouts of strong -EPO blocking we saw at times during that winter, which caused the cross-polar flow and arctic outbreaks

It goes without saying that there is a real heightened chance of a KU snow bomb in a super El Niño with the raging STJ. You just have to get lucky and time/thread the needle with an arctic outbreak and a phase (i.e., 83, 16). The pattern back in 1/16 was blatantly primed, you had the unmodified arctic outbreak with a banana high in SE Canada, -NAO/-AO, 50-50 vortex and it timed perfectly with the temporary -EPO (++PDO driven), -WPO and +PNA ridge pops out west. A snow bomb in an overall sea of warmth from the ++ENSO

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there

Let’s assume for a minute, hypothetically, the Euro is right, this Niño goes super, +2.3C ONI for NDJ, region 1+2 stays around +3.0C and region 3 is at +2.7C come December….Are you going with a cold and snowy east coast winter? I can see the argument that yes, we may thread the needle and get lucky with a KU snow bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016). As far as it being a cold winter with multiple snowstorms up the coast (i.e. 02-03, 09-10)? Color me very, very skeptical in that scenario. Sorry, but that would be a very hard sell for me

That’s not the CFS that’s the C3S. Given the new JMA, we are starting to see a consensus to a super El Nino

Here’s the new JMA, showing a super El Niño

The new C3S run is out

You don’t think ENSO events are easier to predict than forcing? While not an exact science, aside from the ultimate peak, it’s a lot easier to predict Nina’s and Nino’s months ahead

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

IMO, the main driver this winter will be the (possible) super El Niño and the associated forcing with it. The +IOD is also going to play into that. Not to say things like solar/PDO/The Hunga Tonga eruption/QBO/AMO aren’t going to have some say too but I think the main show is going to be ENSO. I don’t buy into the October Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice craze with Judah Cohen anymore after the utter debacle of the last 15+ years

I’d wait until November to give the El Nino and +IOD a chance to really get going, then see where we are at with the forcing at that point

The thing that’s certain at this point is that it’s not becoming a Modoki. Mr. Bastardi can tweet 100 more times between now and December that it’s going to turn into a Modoki and it’s not going to change that fact

Agreed and just my opinion….I think we are in a strong El Niño come September .

Ummmmm I guess you missed the point….the point being that it’s caving to the warmer guidance. And yes the model that’s been dropping regions 1+2 and 3 for the last 5 months is trash

Speaking in definitive absolutes about something 4 months away is probably a bad idea

It’s getting harder to ignore the new models getting stronger with the peak at this point. The spring barrier is long gone

The new Euro run keeps region 1+2 just below +3.0C through December, also has region 3 at +2.7C through December while warming region 3.4 up to +2.3C in the same time frame. Does it actually work out like that? Who knows…

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

IMO once the +IOD really gets going, the WPAC forcing and SST configuration is going to look way different than it does right now