snowman19

Finally a major (positive) SOI response consistent with a developing -ENSO. Here is the EURO-UKMET super blend SST map for November. As you can see, the event is concentrated in region 3.4:

Just to add, if the models are correct about where the EWB is going to be taking place, it would lend some credibility to the NMME idea of this La Niña being region 3.4 centered

Not saying it’s right, but the new NMME has the Niña developing as a central-based event….

Just out of curiosity for comparison to this year, (obviously current anomalies like the ++AMO, record low arctic sea ice, AGW and extreme WPAC/Atlantic warm pools are not going to be able to be found). But if someone can lookup any years that were the following: La Niña (non east-based events), strong -PDO, -PMM, +QBO, -IOD, +AMO, MJO 4-6 dominant, high solar/high geomag. Also, if any years had all those factors and were also volcanic. Thank you

The new Euro is clearly showing classic La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/-IOD looking atmosphere, along with a very muted STJ this winter. Also very suggestive of Niña MJO (4-6) forcing, which is no surprise at all:

Nino 3.4 is going to cool a lot if these model runs are correct. Looking more and more certain by the day that there’s going to be an official La Niña this winter. Cold-neutral is already a given

I guess DT isn’t Team Euro anymore….

There is and has been a very strong atmospheric La Niña background for months even without the ENSO region’s SSTs indicating so. That’s not going anywhere. As I said before, I’m very confident we have a La Niña. -ENSO winter a certainty. And this event was NEVER going to be east-based, not one model has shown that since spring and they still are not

Looks like another sizable region 3.4 drop with an MJO related trade wind burst is coming if the models are correct. Mentioned it the other day, but cold-neutral/borderline La Niña at the very least this winter is guaranteed and I am fairly confident there actually will be a La Niña. Also, blatantly obvious now that this is not going to be an east-based event. Basin wide? Hybrid? But definitely not east-based. Either way, a -ENSO winter coming Other things that are a looking like a very bet going into winter: strong -PDO (pretty much a certainty), -PMM, -IOD, ++AMO, +QBO (possibly strong), MJO 4-6, low arctic sea ice, AGW, *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere from the April eruptions? (likely minor), high solar flux/high geomag

Another big EWB is on the way. Should see another big drop in region 3.4 the next couple of weeks

Aug-Sept 2011 was an epic deluge largely thanks to Irene. Soil moisture was well over 200% of average in September

Rising. Turning positive

I don’t like 12-13. QBO and solar don’t fit. Even 16-17, PDO/PMM don’t fit. The high solar flux and geomag is going to play a bigger role in this winter than some people are giving it credit for. Ignore this at your own risk (ghost of 2001):

Very slow to develop. Cold-neutral (at the very least) is a guarantee, I still think there’s an official La Niña. Also, still no sign of an east-based event developing; i.e. 2017. I think twitter can put the east-based fantasies to bed now IMO

I never said anyone was, just responding to Chuck’s point about the QBO rise from June to July and December, nothing more. I suspect we see a strong +QBO in the next several months given that July is already up to over +12 and it just turned positive in June. Whether it’s a big factor in the grand scheme of things, I don’t know

Was looking at that last week. We saw the same thing in July of 2011, 2007, 2001, 1995, 1992, 1991 and 1980. Not sure about 1980 but I think the others did have some AO disruption. 95 obviously did

I didn’t look at the new updated QBO data, I know it just went positive in June, I think you mean July’s number is already up to +12.53, that’s indicative that we are going to have a strong +QBO come December and beyond, so you’re right, that would not be a good sign for a cold December

Another thing we’ve been seeing a lot of is the SE ridge/WAR verifying much stronger as we get closer in time thanks to the ++AMO. It has been a common theme for several years now and looks to continue

Looking at the ensembles for the next couple of weeks, as of now, your find is pretty uncanny. Aug appears that it will be a break month from the heat. If this continues to follow the script, we see the break this month, then Sept-Nov go way above average, Dec is “neutral”, then Jan-Mar go way above average again….

Was looking at it more today, if there is a Niña, I’m starting to think ONI stays weak, which wouldn’t make 07-08 (I know Ray likes that one) and 16-17 bad. The big problem with 16-17 is the PDO and PMM don’t match (both were positive back then), the +QBO does match however as does the -IOD, +AMO and the MJO 4-6 Niña forcing. The best solar match is still 01-02, very good solar match actually and if it stays cold-neutral would definitely be a good ENSO match and would also match all the other background states we have now