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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1
  2. snowman19
    I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby
  3. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO
  6. snowman19
    IMO Saturday morning is a dusting/coating to maybe an inch which would be the ceiling and not widespread, isolated areas. It’s looking like just a period of steady snow showers passing through
  7. snowman19
    Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo @Allsnow In all seriousness I wholeheartedly believe we go RNA. Forcing is going into the IO. You can hold me to it
  8. snowman19
    Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop
  9. snowman19
    UKIE: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  10. snowman19
    Yea, -EPO driven. Besides the RNA, also looks like a flip to -AAM and a strong SPV/+AO
  11. snowman19
    @Bluewave Not surprisingly the EPS is right back to showing a -PNA just after mid-month
  12. snowman19
    That old EURO bias isn’t a thing anymore. It hasn’t existed in years and it’s handling the northern stream completely different. That’s why it’s flat and OTS run after run @Wxoutlooksblog
  13. snowman19
    We’ll see but the tropical forcing progression after 1/18 supports -PNA
  14. snowman19
    Even for the op GFS this is insane run to run jumps. I’ve honestly never seen anything like it. Let’s see if that has GEFS support
  15. snowman19
    EPS and GEFS are identical now for the 1/20 period. The pattern shift begins just after mid-month
  16. snowman19
    @Bluewave
  17. snowman19
    @Gawx @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1
  18. snowman19
    It’s going as good as all your snowstorm fantasies
  19. snowman19
    I absolutely believe we see -PNA/RNA at the end of the month. The 2 questions are 1) how strong of a -PNA? (which you just said) and 2) is there going to be legit west-based -NAO blocking to somewhat tame the SE ridging?
  20. snowman19
    If you get a dusting/coating with this tomorrow, consider it a win. The floor is just virga, which I think is what all areas north and west of the city see….
  21. snowman19
    IMO no way in hell is next weekend a cutter or inland runner/hugger. The risk is OTS. If I’m wrong tear me apart…..
  22. snowman19
    The NAM loves doing this with literally every storm at this range. It has 2 runs where it over amps/comes north of all the other guidance, then it pulls the rug out in subsequent runs
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    With the amount of times the NAM has done something like this in the past only to burn us in the end I take its solutions with a huge grain of salt
  25. snowman19
    “Buckle up!!”
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