snowman19

March is less than a week away now. Discuss :-)

This 100% percent. You can already see the post 1st week of March torch coming.

The 1st week of March looks cold and that’s it. You aren’t going to get a +PNA to build for any length of time. Why? Look at Bluewave’s new post, you have a super strong PAC jet slamming into the west coast, it crashes into any +PNA that tries to form and knocks it right down. You aren’t going to sustain a +PNA with that raging jet attacking it. Also, no -NAO yet again. No -AO. Bad pattern in early March for an east coast snowstorm for those reasons. The MJO moves into the eastern IO in the first couple days of March and that tropical forcing fully supports a torch pattern developing like all the models are showing after the first week of the month

He’ll still be going strong in April, predicting MJO phase 8, SSW’s, modoki El Nino forcing, blizzards and arctic cold death for NYC while the rest of the civilized world is enjoying spring

2/21-2/28 looks mild and not favorable at all for snow. 3/1-3/7 looks cold but the models have the pattern breaking down to mild again right after that week. PNA goes negative again towards mid month and zonal flow takes over again with the PAC jet once again blasting in. If something is going to happen snow wise, it needs to be that week, and par for the course this winter, even though it gets cold 3/1-3/7, no -NAO block, unlike last March, we couldn’t buy a -NAO this entire winter

The EPS has had a “great signal” in the long range since November, same with the weeklies. Going on 5 months of “great signals”. We should have about 300 inches of snow by now according to the EPS

Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

Surface cold means nothing if it’s too warm aloft. You will just go to sleet and freezing rain

Yes it will. The models always underestimate mid-level warming.

The Upton call this time is a good one. 1-3 inches for the entire metro, I’d even go 1-2 inches, I think 3 would be the limit and isolated. The new 3K NAM illustrates my thinking exactly. There’s going to be a mid-level warm nose. The models always underdue the warm nose. Here’s the 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021918&fh=41

The EPS sucked all winter, the weeklies also sucked all winter. The GEFS flip flopped like a fish out of water in the long range all winter

Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69

The setup isn’t going to allow that to happen though. The Upton disco touched on just that. And last night was a total dumpster fire bust a rama. Why people thought it was going to snow with those soundings, even up by me is just mind boggling

For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well

Guys, FYI the new Euro is only showing 1-2 inches across the metro for Wednesday/Thursday. And that’s both 10:1 and Kuchera, same output

Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

31 degrees here in Sloatsburg, intermittent very light snow/sleet showers, not even a dusting or coating. The radar looks like everything is about to end totally. New HRRR is less than a half inch of snow. Heading to bed, goodnight. Edit: All rain now 12:15

If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

I guess Upton is buying the NAM and HRRR, they just dropped Rockland County to 1-3 inches

The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run

The remainder of February is a lost cause and IMO March is above normal for temps, below normal for snow. I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts and I already went over the reasons for my thinking. Nothing has changed IMO

The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60

Great post!