snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The 6z Euro is a nothing burger for Sunday/Sunday night. Weak, disjointed mess, barely any QPF
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The end of the run was going to torch, warm air was pushing in from the west and you know it. Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles could see where it was headed
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@bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear:
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As Bluewave pointed out, you know what you are looking at is not -EPO right? A ridge in the Aleutians is -WPO. A ridge over Alaska and the GOA would be -EPO
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Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button
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Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water
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The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years
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@bluewave Any model showing the MJO propagating east into phases 7 and 8 needs to be viewed with extreme skepticism due to destructive interference from La Niña. Any wave moving into those areas will likely be sheared apart. Here is the CPC’s new take on it:
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Yea, the Euro keeps pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range. It’s been pretty bad
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It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern
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It’s from the severely negative PDO and ++EPO that have been in place since early September
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Some Thoughts on the Winter 2021-22 Outlook
snowman19 replied to OHweather's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not sure if you follow Griteater on twitter but what he tweeted yesterday is the most disturbing thing I’ve seen all fall. A severely positive EPO is the kiss of death for winter, even if you pop a -NAO/-AO all that would do is bring down and trap PAC junk air with the EPO floodgates wide open: -
This will probably be the most positive EPO fall on record:
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Paul Roundy has expressed doubts that it ever makes it into phase 7. Reason being, strong easterlies and cold waters from the La Niña shear it apart when the wave tries to propogate into that area
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Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15
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Yep. It keeps building -EPO/+PNA mirages over and over in the long range. This has been going on for years now. It has a severe cold bias in the long range. Beware when it shows poleward Aleutian ridges as well. It likes showing big -WPOs that never come to fruition
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As expected, the EPS was way too cold in the long range, yet another phantom -EPO fail:
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The EPS also loses the -AO/-NAO in early December and we go RNA/-PNA. The question then becomes the WPO, with a +EPO if you want to keep a cold supply nearby in Canada…..you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), the more poleward the better, a flat Aleutian ridge definitely will not cut it. The +EPO is also going to limit how cold it can actually get here
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Exactly. You need the Aleutian ridge to go as poleward as possible (-WPO) to help seed Canada with cross-polar/arctic air. A flat Aleutian ridge won’t do jack squat. That said, you still have the +EPO problem which would limit how cold it can actually get. All models agree on continued +EPO and you are going to have RNA/-PNA. Any +PNA pop isn’t going to last with the current background states in the Pacific (Niña/-PDO/-PMM)
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And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December
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November 18th and I still have not had to turn my heat on once. Can’t ever remember that happening
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Here comes the final La Niña boost and SST drop that Dr. Ventrice and others were forecasting last weekend:
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Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states
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What does that have anything to do with what phase the MJO propagates to?
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Those plots are inaccurate. The MJO is going phases 4-6 (Niña). We aren’t going to see the waves getting into phases 7, 8 and 1 because of the La Niña. When the waves try to propagate into those areas they will get sheared to shreads and ripped apart by the strong easterlies and cold waters from the Niña
