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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    We’ll have to come back to this at the end of March and see if the theory worked out. I don’t really have an opinion either way. I’m curious though. However, I do remember the low arctic sea ice theory many were pushing several years ago (low arctic sea ice will lead to -NAM/-AO and -NAO). That failed horribly, I can’t even remember how many winter forecasts were assuming strong arctic and Atlantic blocking because of the record low arctic sea ice and it turned into a monumental, epic fail
  2. snowman19
    I would wait until the beginning of November to reasonably predict where the main tropical convective forcing will be. I don’t care what the seasonal models show in July for D, J, F, M. The forcing may completely change by October/November
  3. snowman19
    The ENSO (SST) configurations 57-58 and 65-66 looked Modoki by the start of winter. This one is extremely east-based right now
  4. snowman19
    It’s as much of a trash analog as 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 are. A certain someone tweets literally everyday about how great those analogs are. If anyone really believes that this Niño is turning into a Modoki, they are either totally delusional or on crack
  5. snowman19
    I expect this trolling garbage from you. Par for the course. Anyway, I was well aware of how the 1925-26 winter turned out, I said it was a very good match for the ENSO evolution, as far as the AGW furnace background state we are in now, it’s not even remotely close. Completely and totally different climate state. Like not even in the ballpark
  6. snowman19
    HM mentioned it last month, but this Nino is almost a carbon copy of the strong, extremely east-based Nino event that developed back in 1925. It’s a very good match actually ENSO wise, the current AGW background state not withstanding obviously
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    Good point with the MJO. Looks like a healthy +IOD develops in a couple of weeks and continues through December. That will constructively interfere with the Nino and support continued strengthening and development over the next 5 months http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    IMO, We are into a strong Nino by astronomical fall. Are we +1.9C into a strong Nino? I don’t know, but I think we will be above the +1.5C threshold at that point
  11. snowman19
    “I am El Niño….”
  12. snowman19
    I said yesterday, I don’t think it peaks THAT high, but I could absolutely see a super peak of +2.5C come December. My ballpark peak range is +2.1C - +2.5C. The latest Euro shows a super peak and the CFS is caving to that
  13. snowman19
    Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34
  14. snowman19
    It’s trending towards the Euro, no shock. Pretty good evidence now that we are very likely in a strong El Nino by the Equinox and most likely “super” (above +2.0C) by November/December. While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 style super peak, I think we very well may be somewhere in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C in region 3.4 for a final peak come December
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    Based on how this is progressing and what the models are showing, it most likely peaks in December. I think we are in a strong El Niño event by the fall equinox and I think we surpass the +2.0C (super) threshold sometime in late November or December
  17. snowman19
    I’m growing more confident that we will already be in a strong El Niño by the start of fall. I think it takes until late November/December to eclipse +2.0C in region 3.4
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    HM and others said those RMM plots are normally very inaccurate due to noise and completely miss MJO signals. The VP and OLR are much more accurate
  20. snowman19
    IMO, I’d say strong is a given at this point, 100%. I’d give a “super” event (above +2.0C) a 95% chance come November/December
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  22. snowman19
    From HM:
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    No one knows where the main forcing will be this winter or should be at this point, way, way too early for that. Maybe it will be further west, maybe it will be east. Look again in the fall
  25. snowman19
    Only in Joe Bastardi delusional wishcasting weenie world does a Modoki look likely. IMO east-based is the most likely outcome with basin-wide the 2nd most likely
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