snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll
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The EPS is literally all over the map for next weekend, there is no clear trend on it at all to say the least lol
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Rockland was a disgrace. There is no way the DPW crews did not know it was coming. It was advertised 24 hours before and a WWA was posted. They should have been on the roads salting everything before it even started, instead they went out after it was already a disaster and played catch up. There were accidents galore that morning
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The operational GFS at day 12….that model can’t figure out what’s going to happen 12 hours from now let alone 12 days….
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For Rockland: November: 0 snow, December, way above average temps and 0.5 total snow! Absolutely superb cold and snowy forecast lol
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The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing…..
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The big test will be the tail end of this month and February….there are growing signs that the current pattern is going to flip in a big way as we enter February:
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The end of January is the transition time period (convection firing in the Indian Ocean) where there will likely be some kind of winter storm, be it snow, ice or a combination of the 2:
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It never coupled? ROTFLMAO!!!!
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Simple reason, we had a major SSW last year and the La Niña never coupled. Neither one of those happened this time
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It looks like the cold could possibly hold into late January with the MJO stuck in phase 7 with -GLAAM. Will be interesting to see what happens the tail end of the month, like post 1/25:
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My concern would be this if we really lose the PAC side, showing a ++NAO for the remainder of winter:
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The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February:
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The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario.
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The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk
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A little over 3 days away and the Euro and GFS with completely different depictions of what is going to happen Thursday night/Friday morning lol let’s see who wins this one. I will say this, now that today’s storm really blew up more than expected up the coast, it may help to push the baroclinic zone way off shore. Guess we’ll see
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That northern fringe is going to be fighting very dry air as per soundings. A lot of what is shown is probably going to be virga
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Not sure why he thought what he posted somehow invalidates your previous post that it turns mild for a time before that but whatever…
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Yea, I figured the GFS was doing it’s normal, notorious wave spacing screw up….it was the only model showing it. I was wrong lol