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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the MA forum
  2. EastonSN+
    Seeing those lows tightly clustered so close to the coast, couldn't that bring mixing issues into CT, RI and MA?
  3. EastonSN+
    That's a bit close for comfort for the coasties.
  4. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don, I noticed that the EPS intensity is deeper (low). If the high pressure in Canada remains at the current modeled level, would the old "storm makes its own cold air" scenario work here, or would the storm pressure need to be sub 992/rapidly drop?
  5. EastonSN+
    This is a good point, and a reason why it is USUALLY hard to get an all snow event in this region and why our areas yearly average is only approx 30 inches. Look at all other years outside of 2000 through 2018 and 1955 through 1969, very hard to get all snow/KU events on a consistent basis. I remember getting amped up in February 1994 because I was FINALLY getting an all snow event without the risk of sleet! It was ALWAYS cutter, hugger or slider. Also, you can cut the country into three potential trough locations. East coast west coast and central/plains. That's a 1/3 chance right there. In addition, I believe that west coast troughing happens more often through history than east coast. We are in an RNA cycle unfortunately and we will have to thread the needle more often than not. On a positive note, when it does happen it makes it that much sweeter! Getting a 6 inch event in the 80s and 90s was like getting a foot 2000 through 2018. Leaving on another positive note. If it can snow in February 2018 in a sea of 60 and 70 degree days, it can snow this year.
  6. EastonSN+
    Wow! Although kind of shocked that 1984 was the coldest! Would have thought it would have deteriorated YOY since 1950 since we have been warming steadily since before 1950. Could something else have driven the 1984 record? I think one of the METS stated that a way to increase the cold pool is to have a strong of years where the Polar Vortex is consolidated.
  7. EastonSN+
    Look at trough digging into SW California, it's further west than the earlier run and is actually what ruined our neg NAO episodes from March, last December and two Decembers ago. Forky actually had a post a couple days ago pointing this out with "sorry don't like the trough here" or something to that effect. Like waves in a bathtub, dip in the west equals ridge in the east. Also I posted a post from orh_wxman a few weeks ago which explained that a deep trough in the SW only works when you have a piece of the PV driving south like in December 2002, which goes to show it's relatively rare to overcome and we do not have a piece of the PV to our north driving south this time.
  8. EastonSN+
    I think the February 2021 blizzard was up and in too.
  9. EastonSN+
    I personally think atm that it will be 1 to 3 for CPK. I don't think any of the METS will state it's a continuation of last year's pattern, as the trough was down to BAJA and further west during the Neg NAO periods of last March, last December and two Decembers ago, leading to outright cutters. This would be a track and high pressure position issue. As 1970 through 1999 showed, there are many different ways to fail.
  10. EastonSN+
    Perfect for SW CT. I do not like the guidance trend north though, has to stop NOW.
  11. EastonSN+
    Yup. I posted a couple times that the storm to the west can help kick this storm east before it gains too much latitude. Only UKMET and GEM show a rainy outcome for most. That said, it doesn't LOOK like Bluewave, Nittany or Walt are too confident for accumulating snow for CPK.
  12. EastonSN+
    I THINK the 90s as well, although a lot of those years the entire Continent roasted more volatile).
  13. EastonSN+
    IMO this storm, like December 2020, can be the deciding factor in determining if CPK can end up with above average snowfall for the year. Definitely looks like a potential for a great period like February 2021 is coming by looking at the GEFS/EPS. Agreed it's going to be tough for LI and coastal New Jersey. Central Park still in the game for some accumulation.
  14. EastonSN+
    For us coasties definitely want another tick or two south.
  15. EastonSN+
    Thanks! How is the GEFS looking
  16. EastonSN+
    Yeah, the reason we lost our on last March, last December and two Decembers ago was a trough down to Baja. Night and day. I really want to see the GEFS and GEPS get onboard.
  17. EastonSN+
    Thanks just found in the MA forum....
  18. EastonSN+
    U have the Kuchera?
  19. EastonSN+
    Yup. So happy to actually have something interesting to look at on these models for once.
  20. EastonSN+
    Yeah if you want to get more granular. I wanted to show that sometimes it's better to look at the individual members than just the mean. One thing to look at are the dwindling number of lows over Ohio which is down to one. That is a good step.
  21. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the NE forum. See the three camps. All on the table.
  22. EastonSN+
    Yup, but a lot of spread on the GEFS. In the New England forum they posted the individual members with 3 camps. Suppression, perfect and huggers.
  23. EastonSN+
    Once again GEFS looks horrible LR with a deep west coast trough. EPS looks amazing. Canadian kind of in the middle and odd, perhaps due to model spread. Looking at the MJO progression would think the GEFS is more correct. However, that could lead to another good window in February as the MJO circles around. If we can get a moderate event on the next storm, CPK has a decent shot at reaching average snowfall (if GEFS is correct). All in all I think the models are just handling the MJO wave speed differently.
  24. EastonSN+
    This goes to show how much has to go right for an all snow event in the tri state region, and was mostly the case 1970 through 1999. Ukmet and CMC warm and rainy. GFS and Icon cool and snowy.
  25. EastonSN+
    Wouldn't the storm on the west coast act to to push this storm east before it can gain much latitude? Understand if this storm absolutely bombs out and overwhelms the entire flow, but it does not look like that's the case.
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