EastonSN+

Hopefully we can do that this year, plenty of time and a low amount.

There are a lot of people pushing political agendas a well unfortunately.

The 90s were warm with less snow in general, was he posting back then or only this century?

Professional post from the MA forum. Something to watch for direction of this winter other than hyper focus on the MJO.

MJO does not have to apologize for anything. If he does, do posters who predict warm and no snow followed by snow have to apologize lol? Public forum for novice weather fans and professionals, not a closed forum where only professional Mets can post (although I would love to have this option to view, professional opinions without the noise).

Thanks! Great professional post with details. Also on a bright note, DC may actually get a small accumulation from this upcoming event. Very small chance however good for them.

Thank you for this. A few pages ago I posted the incredibly warm daily temps for 1888. Just one year in a colder background state however it shows that warm winters are not new. I get that we are in an interesting streak, however we have had 5 year warm streaks before. Don posted the 500mb plot for that December (1888) and guess what, it had a deep west coast trough and a SOUTH BASED NAO like the last 2 Decembers, yet somehow there is a theory that what happened last December was new and scary. As for strong El Ninos Decembers you are 100% correct. This JUST happened in 2015 yet somehow posters are acting like this is new. Posters would have thought snow was extinct after the 97/98 super Nino season when we had repetitive perfect benchmark tracks yet all were rain due to the continent being flooded with PAC air (odd, just like now but over 20 years ago). I believe what would help this forum are December stats for weak, moderate and strong El Ninos to show they are not alike. We want weak El ninos with warm departures in the central Pacific. Not strong El ninos for wall to wall winters. Yet, our posts will be ignored and certain posters who are not professionals will throw out ensembles and predict victory when all they are doing is riding the coattails of great posters like Bluewave. Or worst yet claim winters as we knew them are over like there are statistics to prove this theory. 2000 through 2018 skewed a lot of posters perception of reality. 1970 through 1999 were a joke for snowfall outside of a couple of years. Also, those who claim the 80s were FRIGID need to go back and look as the daily temperatures. Sure there were some incredibly cold outbreaks, but that JUST happened in 2013/2014 and 2014/2015.

This is a great point. We need the statistics over similar 5 year periods to see if this is indeed the case or just recent perception.

Perhaps one way to difuse is to replace the weenie tag with an emoji that represents disagreement rather than one that represents someone is a weenie. Or somehow a pic of the words Respectfully Disagree.

100%. Just look at the 500 MB plot provided by Don for December 1888, it's remarkably similar to last December with a deep RNA and South Based NAO block. Last year's December was not historic nor abnormal, just like this December is not unexpected at all for an El Nino December. 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 can skew perception. Like I posted before, this feels to me like the winters I experienced growing up, so benefiting from experience a little.

Thanks Don as always your the best! This looks an awful lot like the last two Decembers :(. Terrible RNA and a south based NAO block. It's actually incredibly similar to last December.

Thanks for this! I may be reading that map incorrectly, however it looks like there is a trough in the east. Why were the temps so high that December with a trough? Perhaps the positive EPO flooding the continent with marine air?

See I would love to get this analysis for 1888 LOL. That year was an absolute furnace, and I have to wonder if that setup was close to this year in some ways. Side note I would pay almost anything to be able to get a radar loop from the 1888 blizzard.

I do agree the WPAC waters are warm now and lately. I do not know if it's static or a cycle and will cool. Only time will tell. I do not look at posts from those who are predicting cold/snow as all trolling (there are trollers both ways), rather I like to believe this is their true viewpoint and they are entitled to it whether I agree or not. My current view is we are in a warm pattern like 1888, the late 80s through the 90s etc. I do believe that in the future we will go back to 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, albeit 1 or 2 degrees warmer.

Thanks for this. I wish we had the tools back in 1888, would love to see what drove that years pattern. 1.) I am surprised on how warm that entire year was! April through December was an absolute torch. Perhaps it was the same type of setup we see now. 2.) It's incredible how wide the daily temperature spreads were especially in the winter months. Shows how much the heat island effect has taken hold.

Each forum tends to have its own flavor. If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you. If you want warmth optimism this is your forum. I like to look at all three as you get a well rounded viewpoint. Taking all three, looking like warmth through the 20th, variable to the 25th and a potential favorable snowfall patter after the 25. Also known as a typical El nino December lol.

Final snip and the downer for 1888. Christmas Grinch torch we all know too well.

I love both posters to be honest and for different reasons of course. They both make me look forward to logging into this site daily.

Final one - epic summer season in 1888. That plus the blizzard sign me up any day.

Fantastic September. 1888 seemed to be a great long summer season, inclusive of an epic blizzard.

Wild that April too!!

This was February 1888

All the talk of 1888 made me research, what a temp roller coaster ride for that storm!!

I know Don mentioned very loosely 97/98, which is still a fear as in that year the GOA trough flooded Canada with PAC air the entire season. It has been 25 years so I wouldn't be floored by a repeat/something similar maybe a hair cooler.

From a YOY perspective yes, however if we get crushed in January and February and it's an above average winter, than the 90s still take the cake.