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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great! Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. The warm waters in the IO will help us here. Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track.
  2. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z
  3. EastonSN+
    Perfect
  4. EastonSN+
    The waters in the western IO are rising fast. Would be shocked if we did not get a spike in phases 1,2 and 3.
  5. EastonSN+
    It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.
  6. EastonSN+
    Eh, if this fails we'll get a good winter soon enough.
  7. EastonSN+
    To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol
  8. EastonSN+
    EURO will be the tie breaker.
  9. EastonSN+
    CMC
  10. EastonSN+
    Courtesy of MA forum.
  11. EastonSN+
    Great sign, courtesy of the NE forum.
  12. EastonSN+
    Yup like 2013/2014. PAC will always have greater importance than the Atlantic. Of course, if you are big storm hunting, you want them to align. The PAC is like the cold water faucet, the Atlantic, or blocking, the drain. Turn the cold water on high the close the drain....
  13. EastonSN+
    The two years over 20 inches were not surprisingly during our two cyclical extreme snowfall periods. The other three during our 30 year snow drought. The PAC is cyclical so I believe this proves that blocking alone will never help us, we need blocking PLUS a good background state. Look at the last two years, just a repeat of 70 through 99.
  14. EastonSN+
    Snowfall for CPK. Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern. 65/66 - 21.4 70/71 - 15.5 87/88 - 19.1 98/99 - 12.7 09/10 - 51.4
  15. EastonSN+
    Daily 14th. Obviously will not get pushed back or can-kicked at this point so last day posting these.
  16. EastonSN+
  17. EastonSN+
    We have to carve out 70 through 99 and and compare against 2020 onwards. 2000 through 2018 was more in line with 55 through 69 especially in terms of KUs. I am tracking the average annual CPK snowfall 70 through 99 against 2020 onwards. My thoughts are still +-2.5 inches.
  18. EastonSN+
    Do you think the war had anything to do with that massive drop in the late 30s early 40s?
  19. EastonSN+
    DC always had issues as they are too far north for SE sliders and too far south for many Miller Bs. How much warmer can ocean temps realistically get to (obviously boiling but that would be a much much graver situation lol). Remember coastal NC just had a good snowfall event too. That is important considering water temps.
  20. EastonSN+
    This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18). I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered.
  21. EastonSN+
    This is where my thoughts diverge from some. I believe GW is linear, with repeated patterns from the past reoccurring with higher temps. I do not subscribe to outright regime shifts where patterns from the past can no longer exist. Caveat MAY be large urban areas where HIA plays a larger role in EC, especially early/late season. However, I need more time/seasons to digest. Please keep in mind, I grew up in the 85 through 99 years where snowfall seemed next impossible (even wearing short sleeve shirts one January in the early 90s). Therefore, the last two years are not a shock to my system, but rather a familiar pattern that I lived through.
  22. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! The decline in 1 to 3 coupled with the increase of 6+ really shows the effects of increased moisture/dynamics resulting from temps. Do you happen to have 1890 through 1960?
  23. EastonSN+
    To be fair, a lot of snow events in the 70 through 99 era were 20 to 25 degrees with snow. Those events would still be snow today, and likely higher amounts due to higher moisture content.
  24. EastonSN+
    Completely agree. This is likely why KU events, outside of 55-60 and 00 through 18 are typically hard to come by.
  25. EastonSN+
    I do agree, however, I think there is a difference between a trough out west and what we have experienced the last two years. Those troughs were to BAJA and that's impossible to overcome (unless you have a PV press like wx orhman pointed out happened in December 2002). If you have a moderate trough blocking can still overcome. Also, the last blocking episode failed in a different way, the middle Atlantic received the snow. Troughing to Baja means cutter.
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