EastonSN+

Perhaps this is a good sign and we will finally get hammered!

Records are made to be broken, surprised it may take over 100 years which is a long time.

I thought El ninos typically had a trough over Alaska, +EPO offset by a POS PNA?

Thanks Don, in my previous posts I referenced that I thought El ninos were typically not frigid, rather they usually have marginal air masses offset by favorable storm tracks with dynamic cooling from offshore intensification. The MA forum had a post stating that Canada is usually above average during times of truly large snow events. Seems that truly frigid years with the PV on our side of the globe for an extended period of time happens very rarely (76/77, 93/94 and 13/14).

I may be mistaken, however to my El nino question above, snow on the ground would lower monthly temp departures even though the air mass is marginal.

How often do we see prolonged periods of the PV over our area? I think it happened in 76/77, 93/94 and 13/14 (every 15 to 20 years)?

Thanks for this. Is this typical for el ninos? I always thought El ninos have blocking and a POS PNA, however the POS EPO usually keeps the PV on the other side. Always feel like when snow a lot in El ninos the temps are always marginal compensated by good storm tracks and rapid intensification leading to dynamic cooling.

Good to see the wave strengthen a little in 7 and 8.

Truth be told, I cannot sleep when it's windy/stormy at night ever since a tree fell on my house during one of the March 2018 snowstorms.

I hope this happens during the day, its terrifying hearing the wind through the trees when trying to sleep lol.

I have not seen any posts denying climate change. I do contest that the last 5 year period represents a small window of time, and we need more time to confidently declare that this 5 year window is the new normal WRT snowfall specifically (temps to a certain degree, no pun intended). Also, whilst the MIA officially ended, it would not have produced static temps from that point thereafter. Rather, temperatures would continue to rise as they have been doing. So, if an individual is not grasping the magnitude they are not incorrect OR correct. Even though we have incredibly intelligent posters of this forum, and I am lucky to be able to read from them, nobody knows DEFINITELY the magnitude of what is occurring, and what percentage is natural warming vs. human influence. I only speak for myself, but I respect all posters regardless of their stance, even if they believe GW will put us underwater by March or we will have continuous blizzards weekly for the next ten years. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Only time will tell. Hopefully we all enjoy the ride.

Move that ridge a little to the left and we are good. +PNA always trumps a neg NAO and a deep RNA (see last 2 Decembers). Good progress.

It's more that I had a blanket thought that most El ninos are snowy here. Just like some la ninas are favorable, some El ninos are not.

One thing I have to say, I am surprised how warm it was in years like 1956. My dad always made it sound like it never got above freezing from December 1st through March and snow was on the ground till mid April LOL. 1932 - my grandfather was the opposite and told me stories like the time he got a sled for Christmas and it did not snow the entire winter and was warm. He never thought winters of his childhood were anything special.

Thinking about it, how many accumulation snowfall events did cpk have in 10/11? The big 3. The February storm that turned to rain before the pattern flip. The forgotten March overrunning event that dropped 4.5. 5 total?

Lol North Carolina beat my town for the first accumulation of the year. Flatwood, albeit in the mountains, received 0.3 from the clipper.

While I had pretty high hopes for this year, I was not well versed enough in weather to know all El ninos are not alike. The Mets at AccuWeather never predicted a big snowfall winter (they do leave the door open for a big one). "AccuWeather is predicting 18-26 inches of snow in New York City this winter, slightly below the historical average of 29.8 inches. It might take only one storm to surpass last winter's snowfall total." "While snowfall totals are forecast to be much higher compared to last winter, the frequency of snowfall may not be that much higher. Last winter, accumulating snow fell on only four days. This upcoming winter, the number of snow days is predicted to be between four and seven."

Central park recorded 7.6. Bronx 10. Lga 7.1. JFK 5.1. I like Mitch but NYC did really well considering the ultimate track. The air mass ahead of the storm was cold enough for the results.

This storm HUGGED the coast with a worse air mass than 93 and still hammered.

100 year storm.

I thought the worst large storm track to dump a lot of snow was March of 2017. Coastal hugger and still landed 9.5 inches of snow and thunder sleet. 93 was a little further offshore but much much more intense.

Great post by TIP. YES he is in the NE forum and YES even though he is in that forum EPO and WPO affect our weather too.

Amazing memory. Norwalk through Fairfield reported 11.5 inches of snow before the flip. The flash freeze made it an absolute glacier.

It's amazing how much it takes for a good wall to wall winter, or a solidly above average snowfall winter. Shows how much of an anomaly 2000 through 2018 really was (or 55 through 69 for that matter).