EastonSN+

You can see how this is following the last wave. With the western IO temps expect another wave in phase 1.

This leads to what I was referring to before. The western IO water temps will once again have wave amplification in Phase 1 (see the MJO plot). Will be similar to what we just had in terms of MJO, albeit perhaps without the blocking.

Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough. This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately.

I mean strong Ninos typically have one period, we just failed to take advantage like 82/83 and 15/16.

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%. We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7. Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not.

Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2.

86 through 90 was another incredibly bad period. That average snowfall was spot on to our past few years. 15.85 average across those years in CPK I believe.

Unfortunately this area is all or nothing a lot of the time. The second half of the 1980s averaged 15.85 inches. The last 4 years of the 1990s averaged 11.125. That 25 to 30 average is heavily skewed by 2 periods, 1955 through 1969 (a LOT of KUs that period) as well as 2000 through 2018. Keep in mind CPK had only 5 winters in 30 years (70 through 99) with at least average snowfall. That 30 year average was 21.90667

My bad meant 13/14. If we are really heading through another 30 year period like 70 through 99, being a few degrees warmer would actually increase snowfall (except the 90s which were an inferno).

To me Panama City right on the Gulf Coast at 24 is really impressive given how warm the Gulf waters are.

At least we had 20/21 as a solidly above average snowfall winter. 21/22 was ok just below average. They have had ratter after ratter.

It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years.

EPS looks like it gets us to a better place quicker than the GEFS and GEPS.

When Washington crossed the Delaware there were ice jams. Can only imagine how they survived those winters.

I think their last above average snowfall season was 15/16.

I honestly am happy for DC and Philly this year.

NYC currently 19. Panama City Florida is only 24 lol.

From this morning

A lot of spread on the MJO front

Impressive cold shot for sure with lots of broken records. Unlike 15/16 this shot was a bit further west.

I would put 14/15 almost as high as 03 and 96, we snowed all the way till March when everything was suppressed to DC (was not like we warmed up or anything). Yeah in 15/16 my town reached average snowfall with a mid March 3 incher. 82/83 had those storms, however CPK only reached average snowfall with 27.2, and was actually the only winter in the entire decade to reach average snowfall (the decade snowfall average was 19.74 inches). What's absolutely insane is CPK reached average snowfall only 5 seasons in 30 years! 77/78, 78/79, 82/83, 93/94, 95/96. What's even more amazing is CPK had only three years with above average snowfall in 30 years. 55 through 69 and 00 through 18 inflated CPKs average annual snowfall.

It stinks but it does happen a lot through history.

Not adding up fast enough

I think 82/83 had more to do with blocking as well. Does anyone have temp stats on the 80s? I remember them being cold dry warm and wet like now with areas like kC setting cold records like now while we either roasted or was frigid but ended up raining anyway.