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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Nam 3 k
  2. EastonSN+
    I feel safer when Long Island gets some.
  3. EastonSN+
    Nice. Sooo close to the coast with the good stuff
  4. EastonSN+
    Could that be a cold and dry look? Seems as though trough is a bit east.
  5. EastonSN+
    That's true, but do we know why that area is warming faster, and why the western IO cannot overtake it in warmth? My point just being it can change like when the warm blob off the northwest was there then cycles away. For now, we have to deal with that area but could theoretically change
  6. EastonSN+
    Yeah Bluewave is great, and perhaps my views are skewed do to living through a period where CPKs annual snowfall average was 11.125 lol (late 90s) and late 80s. Approx 15.5. However my point is more that yes we are stuck in an MJO phase spread due to the ocean temps, however why CAN'T that change with time? Western IO temps are exploding so that would Favor phases 1 and 2! So we can move to another great period, especially with gulf stream temps adding fuel. I will panic once it stops snowing in Norfolk Virginia/Delmarva lol. DC is a bad comparison cause through history they are always too far north for southern sliderz and too far south for northern stream miller Bs.
  7. EastonSN+
    Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)? We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo. Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.
  8. EastonSN+
    This snowless steak for NYC? I am not there now as in my lifetime other than this number of days without snow I have encountered 5 years with only one above average snowfall season streaks. Also the snowfall averages in the late 80s and especially the late 90s were lower than the last 5 years (late 90s was wayyy lower than the last 5 years). So while our snowfall averages will lower with time, I do not believe that this is our new normal/dramatic shift to "DC climo". Decadal RNA cycle is keeping the trough to our west the majority of the time now. Also our CPK snowfall averages are inflated by decadal PNA cycles like 2000 through 2018. Other than those cycles our snowfall averages are pretty low (I believe 55 through 69 was a PNA cycle as well as we have a snow blitz then like 2000 through 2018). However, it's cool that we disagree to an extent as discussions like this help us learn. I would be more concerned if 21/22 did not happen lol.
  9. EastonSN+
    This is why I HATE strong El Ninos. 97/98 is a warning to the worst case scenario which is always on the table during these events.
  10. EastonSN+
    Even for the CT coasties?
  11. EastonSN+
    Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in.
  12. EastonSN+
    Does not line up with Upton too well.
  13. EastonSN+
    That is almost exactly what NWS is showing for the CT coast! 1 to 2 right along the immediate shore and 3 to 7 just inland even below the Merritt Parkway.
  14. EastonSN+
    I think Forky had a claim that NAM always has at least one crush job run that is inevitably incorrect
  15. EastonSN+
    Lol coastal CT
  16. EastonSN+
    Nice snow shower passing through!
  17. EastonSN+
    Will be interesting to see the EPS. Especially for the burbs.
  18. EastonSN+
    I think we are generally on the same page, difference is I see this current 5 year stretch as we are in a decadal RNA regime with a global warming background raising our temps by say whatever the current global departure is. 2000 through 2018 with a decadal PNA would still work. Also, 1996 where we were snowing at 18 degrees may be 21 degrees and snowing. Yes, we will lose our 33 and snow from 1972, but the blizzard of 1978 would still be snow IMO and maybe more given the added moisture. Where my view differs than some is I do not think our overall weather structure changed i.e. I do not think we are going to be in a mostly static RNA from here on our. I believe the same patterns persist just increasingly warmer.
  19. EastonSN+
    Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help).
  20. EastonSN+
    Yeah, GFS taken verbatim the CT coast never flips to mix, albeit an above freezing snowfall with low ratios.
  21. EastonSN+
    Borrowed again.
  22. EastonSN+
    Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires.
  23. EastonSN+
    Again borrowed from the NE forum. Enjoy
  24. EastonSN+
    Completely agree. Our second window (this weekend was the first), then as Bluewave alluded to, phase 8 potential for February. All in all though this winter so far has been textbook strong El nino.
  25. EastonSN+
    The cutter is a good thing, helps build/strengthen the NAO block.
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