EastonSN+

Borrowed from the NE forum. See the three camps. All on the table.

Yup, but a lot of spread on the GEFS. In the New England forum they posted the individual members with 3 camps. Suppression, perfect and huggers.

Once again GEFS looks horrible LR with a deep west coast trough. EPS looks amazing. Canadian kind of in the middle and odd, perhaps due to model spread. Looking at the MJO progression would think the GEFS is more correct. However, that could lead to another good window in February as the MJO circles around. If we can get a moderate event on the next storm, CPK has a decent shot at reaching average snowfall (if GEFS is correct). All in all I think the models are just handling the MJO wave speed differently.

This goes to show how much has to go right for an all snow event in the tri state region, and was mostly the case 1970 through 1999. Ukmet and CMC warm and rainy. GFS and Icon cool and snowy.

Wouldn't the storm on the west coast act to to push this storm east before it can gain much latitude? Understand if this storm absolutely bombs out and overwhelms the entire flow, but it does not look like that's the case.

I don't think he meant the grand finale forever, more the finale of that incredible 2000 through 2018 period.

Wouldn't that storm crashing into the SW help kick our storm east before it can get too much latitude?

Pretty stark differences between the GEPS and GEFS at the end of their runs.

Here is the history for central park. https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:ae0895db-7e85-4c6a-84ea-43574ecab760

Yeah. If we can score during this period before the relaxation, then we have a good shot at average snowfall when we get back to the good MJO phases again. If this was just a moderate El nino this winter could have been a great one.

The last 4 winters averaged 15.9 inches as CPK. Not good but far better than the 11.125 average from 96/97 through 99/00. 85/86 through 89/89 was close with 15.825 so perhaps a good comparison so far. Agreed 2 under 5 so close together is new, however too early to tell if it's an anamoly or a trend. Let's see what the next few years bring. A lot will depend on how strong the la Nina is next year.

At the very least ski country can benefit a lot. Hopefully most or all of this sub forum as well.

Correct. Too bad this was a strong El nino, if this were moderate or weak we could have been talking a great winter.

Yup, our best potential in a while. I don't think it will be the last either.

It could be rain, but it's more fun to look at what can go right.

Yeah this type of setup is what works for the SE areas of the sub forum.

Huge differences over last year though. We do not have a monster RNA overpowering everything. We do not have a low pressure in the great lakes for every event like last year. Very different.

This can be a decent event for the coastal plain with the cold air just to the west moving in.

It's on our side of the globe now!

The vast majority of the time our snowfall comes from less than ideal setups, where a lot has to go just right for an all snow event. That said there are some features working in our favor which have been largely lacking in the last 2 years: 1.) High pressure to our north (we always had a low in the Great lakes area last two years). Would want in slightly west of that depiction however that is a cool air source. 2.) A deepening predicesor storm which is providing SOME confluence, which of course can help limit the northern trends. 3.) A storm crashing into the west coast, which, if timed right, can kick our storm east BEFORE allowing it to gain to much latitude (i.e. keeping us on the NW side. Not a perfect -EPO/PNA/-AO/-NAO setup, however one that gives us the best threat in a couple years. Great to be able to track something.

Agreed, it's more the overall pattern which favors an RNA regime over a SE ridge dominated setup (downstream effect). Once the oceanic thermal profiles change/alter locations and intensity (for example the rise and demise of the warm blob off the west coast driving the east based Neg EPO 13 through 15) we may be in better shape and re-establish a east coast trough dominant pattern. Big question is how long does the current profile last?

I think 90% of the issue was the RNA strength and maybe more importantly, the actual position of the trough. I don't think the NAO failure was historic. In fact, through history we failed more often than not on snow chances (other than periods such as 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018). Therefore this type of failure had to have occured before.

Yeah this one was suppressed to our south on this run.

I love seeing the high pressure to our north instead of the last two years where there was always a low pressure system.

Pulling for DC. They already had their first snow would like for them to get another.