EastonSN+

In addition, I believe Don provided statistics showing that blocking usually follows "blocky" Novembers. If the aforementioned comes to fruition, we can be in for one wild ride! We really need a good snowy period for board moral lol.

Thanks! Surprised the 80s and 90s are missing lol. Don, is there a chart with precipitation anomalies? That would paint a picture of what drove the previous years snow drought. I believe 72 through 74 were very dry?

Kind of weak, however in the right phases.

The EPS looks a bit better than the GEFS. The trough off the west coast has migrated enough to commence pumping a West coast ridge. Also, Greenland heights are increasing. Finally, although our surface temps are slightly above average, they ARE cold enough if we have an intense storm with the right track.

That's funny Don. I know I keep raising the fear of 97/98, however so far we are realizing the same results (warm and rainy with Pacific air domination regardless of storm tracks/blocking). I may be oversimplifying, however, looking at the end of the GEFS Alaska has improved as well as the SW US and Greenland. I do not remember how the setup was that year, however I do not think we ever saw this improvement over Alaska that year. Therefore, holding out hope we follow an 82/83 or 15/16 winter rather than 97/98. At least improvements are on the ensembles even if it seems they are "pushed back".

I hate seeing the 1990s (3 of them) in there. I hope it doesn't take long to break out of this pattern, however it's only been five years so maybe a ways to go. There will be good winters mixed in.

I seriously hope not.

Welcome to the forum neighbor!!

Adding to my immediately preceding post, watching for the transition away from (a).

The trough moved slightly west in this depiction. Still needs a little improvement. The middle Atlantic can get a second snowfall with this look (even with above normal temps), as the storm track would be favorable and the storms seem to have intensity this year.

97/98 ish. Not calling that disaster for this year just reminiscing.

Better....

Still watching the GOA trough, as this is still the key feature in "flipping" to a snowier pattern. I did not account for the strength of this El nino (and anomaly position), which I should have since we just lived through 2015 lol. That being said, if one wants hope for snow visit the MA forum where there is positive changes in the LR modeling. Also, if the El Nino is rapidly weakening we may be able to extend the better looking pattern, rather than the shorter 1 month looks of 2016 and 1983. Although 97/98 had numerous offshore benchmark storm tracks with nothing but rain to show for it, that El nino was stronger so likely to avoid that outcome (again the GOA trough has to migrate west). Like the last two Decembers have shown (as well as 97/98), blocking cannot win alone (never could). Weeklies look good FWIW.

100%. We warmed December however we paid for it with colder Novembers and April's when we usually cannot snow anyway.

Great storm to the coast here in SW CT. Rain followed by heavy wet snow. Measured 6 in Norwalk CT coastal CT Ct.

I know I keep throwing this pic out there, however going from b. the last 2 winters to a. so far has been disheartening. Last good winter was 3 years ago which feels like forever. This board is ready to erupt once we finally get into the next good pattern lol.

Yeah they are in a bad spot in these setups unfortunately.

Thanks! I read a post on the MA forum stating that it's "against physics" for the jet to stay extended indefinitely lol.

Unfortunately I want to move to a warmer climate as well for an extended summer/boating season. Unfortunately NYC is the epicenter of my industry. Which El nino season does the 500mb charts match the most so far? I remember 97/98 (gasp), and this is not as strong as 2016. I heard 82/83 was an El Nino however do not know too much about that winter other than the megalopolis storm.

Until/if the GOA trough moves, we are stuck in a. below which of course floods the continent with PAC air. Not too confident it will move soon given that we are in a strong El nino. We shall see.

North and East.....

Our area actually had an average snowfall winter with a few events. Below are a couple of them

(a) is exactly what we are experiencing now. See Canada and compare to now and the below map. Perfect match. (b) is what la Nina, last year brought.

Yeah, until that trough retrogrades it will be in a perfect position to flood the continent. I "believe" the trough is also in a similar position to 11/12.