EastonSN+

I read in the MA forum that the GOA trough is in a bad position for us. Goes to show that not all ninos are good, and one variable like this can affect our chances. 97/98 is a good example. Hope it changes. If net we will get em next year.

Is this the reason why we prefer a central based el nino than an east based one? I think that is what made 97/98 such a warm and snowless El nino.

I just don't buy into the theory that the ocean temps have hit a tipping point and will never return. This all occurred after the 15/16 Nino per Bluewave, which is far too short of a time period for something this dramatic and static to occur. Also, if the Pacific is still seeing temperature swings from la Nina to El nino, as well as the North Atlantic changing temps why can't the IO? Is there something special about that ocean? I heard someone say that JB mentioned under ocean volcanos, although that activity would not last forever. If this were CO2, wouldn't all ocean temps warming accelerate at the same pace as the IO? Wouldn't la Nina's lose strength? I get it we are warming due to natural causes and human activities, however what proof do we have that something as dramatic as an extremely rapid increase in IO temps? Also what evidence do we have that only the IO will stay like this and not change?

Only until the 9th and after where we go through phases 7 through 1. Timing is great it's a bit early now.

They think it was bad the last 4 out of 5 years, they would have absolutely lost their minds and thought winters as we knew them were over during the 70s, 80s and especially the 90s which were extremely warm for the most part. The epic period from 2000 through 2018, which somewhat mirrored 55 through 69, has skewed a lot of posters views on what is expected I believe.

Given that we are in a Nino now, even if we have strong forcing in 4 through 6, wouldn't that allow the forcing to remain strong through 7-1 rather than a la Nina environment that would kill the wave beforehand.

Correct, by the 9th we should be heading towards phase 7. Anything before the 2nd week of December is a bonus. The MJO cooler phases may line up nicely with climo. No guarantees, however I would rather propagate through the warm phases now than in mid December.

I feel better about this year given that we have already spent time in the cooler phases. It may take a few years for the WPAC waters to cool.

Our first opportunity window looks to start around the 9th.

The reason the ensembles corrected to a West Coast trough is due to the MJO going into phases 3 and 4, not as a result of a static background state Imo.

That is just the last few years though, I am sure this has happened before when we have had strong la Nina's. Is there proof/data that shows this has never happened before?

Thanks. Also the ensembles did not correct to a warm overall new background state, just merely corrected to the upcoming MJO phases 3 and 4. This ensemble correction would be expected in 1950.

The 90s were very warm as well (as were the 1930s I believe). We are definitely warming as we are still emerging from the mini ice age, also influenced by human activities. That being said, all one has to do is look at the last few years and the snow events in NC, Virginia and the Delmarva to take solice that we are a long way off from not seeing good winter stretches anymore. Also, if we are in more of a SE ridge dominant pattern, a repeat of the 1980s would yield less suppression and perhaps an incredible stretch. I get that this is more of a temperature fear/discussion than pure snowfall. Maybe this is permanent, however I think we have to wait a number of years to determine as we have seen 10 years warm stretches before.

The ens finally corrected to the MJO phases 3 and 4.

We went through phases 8,1 and 2 too early in the season and now we are going through the warm phases. This is expected and not a surprise. The ens correct to the MJO phase. Nobody is FOOLED.

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018. If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen.

So the debate seems to be, is the SE ridge a result of the RNA and the storm pumping up the SE ridge, or is the SE ridge causing the storm to cut. My thought is, if we are heading through phase 3, wouldn't a RNA just cause the SE ridge to pump up?

The MJO is progressing through 3 and 4, so this is expected.

Wasn't the old map just showing a flat SE Ridge due to spread? It seemed odd to not have a SE ridge with a deep RNA like the old map was showing. I think the new map shows less spread and more of what u would expect with an RNA.

97/98 has been my fear all along. We seem to be in a multi-year period of west coast, central u.s. troughing which could be expected after the long 2000 through 2018 epic period. surprised this pac has not improved given the recent MJO forcing.

We will see it again down the road. May take a few years though.

This is a good sign for El nino forcing. Unlike prior years we look to be looping through the favorable phases. As long as we avoid an El nino like 97/98 we may be in good shape.

Of course, however he was not just referring to northern new England. Part of New England is just a few miles from NYC. That difference could have smoked DC northward.

Great sign for MJO