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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. Still watching the GOA trough, as this is still the key feature in "flipping" to a snowier pattern. I did not account for the strength of this El nino (and anomaly position), which I should have since we just lived through 2015 lol. That being said, if one wants hope for snow visit the MA forum where there is positive changes in the LR modeling. Also, if the El Nino is rapidly weakening we may be able to extend the better looking pattern, rather than the shorter 1 month looks of 2016 and 1983. Although 97/98 had numerous offshore benchmark storm tracks with nothing but rain to show for it, that El nino was stronger so likely to avoid that outcome (again the GOA trough has to migrate west). Like the last two Decembers have shown (as well as 97/98), blocking cannot win alone (never could). Weeklies look good FWIW.
  2. 100%. We warmed December however we paid for it with colder Novembers and April's when we usually cannot snow anyway.
  3. Great storm to the coast here in SW CT. Rain followed by heavy wet snow. Measured 6 in Norwalk CT coastal CT Ct.
  4. I know I keep throwing this pic out there, however going from b. the last 2 winters to a. so far has been disheartening. Last good winter was 3 years ago which feels like forever. This board is ready to erupt once we finally get into the next good pattern lol.
  5. Yeah they are in a bad spot in these setups unfortunately.
  6. Thanks! I read a post on the MA forum stating that it's "against physics" for the jet to stay extended indefinitely lol.
  7. Unfortunately I want to move to a warmer climate as well for an extended summer/boating season. Unfortunately NYC is the epicenter of my industry. Which El nino season does the 500mb charts match the most so far? I remember 97/98 (gasp), and this is not as strong as 2016. I heard 82/83 was an El Nino however do not know too much about that winter other than the megalopolis storm.
  8. Until/if the GOA trough moves, we are stuck in a. below which of course floods the continent with PAC air. Not too confident it will move soon given that we are in a strong El nino. We shall see.
  9. Our area actually had an average snowfall winter with a few events. Below are a couple of them
  10. (a) is exactly what we are experiencing now. See Canada and compare to now and the below map. Perfect match. (b) is what la Nina, last year brought.
  11. Yeah, until that trough retrogrades it will be in a perfect position to flood the continent. I "believe" the trough is also in a similar position to 11/12.
  12. Great read Courtesy of the MA forum. Strongly suggest for all! The top 2 on the pic at the end have been our most recent winters.
  13. Still have to watch the PAC trough which needs to retrograde. Until it does PAC air will dominate. The 850 temp map below is an almost perfect example of this. Negative departures in all the wrong places (extreme west coast/off the coast) and Greenland. Unfortunately this can/is currently occuring in strong el ninos especially December.
  14. This is obviously just a potential, however this is an example for the audience members who do not remember 97/98. That year had numerous good storm tracks yet yielded only rain due to the fact that the continent was flooded with PAC air. That was the most frustrating winter I can remember.
  15. Looks like the DC area had their first event, good for them! Even DC itself recorded 0.1 (Regan). Rare to see DC score before NYC and Boston.
  16. I do not have the stats for strong El nino winters, however they seem to be either complete snowless torches like 97/98 (extreme example) or 3 to 4 week stretches like 1983 or 2016.
  17. Exactly, I for one was just excited to avoid another la Nina and completely ignored the fact that strong el Ninos are typically not good for snowfall, especially in December. For now we enjoy the energy savings!
  18. That was the greatest one for Myrtle! Below are the most resent Myrtle events, with 2010 the most recent warning level event.
  19. There are people denying that it's getting warmer?
  20. Lol that's a strong El nino December for you. Interesting to look at and learn from.
  21. It has ALWAYS been useless without the PAC help.
  22. I do not see anyone hyping 97/98, merely comparing that year to this year.
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