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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Look at trough digging into SW California, it's further west than the earlier run and is actually what ruined our neg NAO episodes from March, last December and two Decembers ago. Forky actually had a post a couple days ago pointing this out with "sorry don't like the trough here" or something to that effect. Like waves in a bathtub, dip in the west equals ridge in the east. Also I posted a post from orh_wxman a few weeks ago which explained that a deep trough in the SW only works when you have a piece of the PV driving south like in December 2002, which goes to show it's relatively rare to overcome and we do not have a piece of the PV to our north driving south this time.
  2. EastonSN+
    I think the February 2021 blizzard was up and in too.
  3. EastonSN+
    I personally think atm that it will be 1 to 3 for CPK. I don't think any of the METS will state it's a continuation of last year's pattern, as the trough was down to BAJA and further west during the Neg NAO periods of last March, last December and two Decembers ago, leading to outright cutters. This would be a track and high pressure position issue. As 1970 through 1999 showed, there are many different ways to fail.
  4. EastonSN+
    Perfect for SW CT. I do not like the guidance trend north though, has to stop NOW.
  5. EastonSN+
    Yup. I posted a couple times that the storm to the west can help kick this storm east before it gains too much latitude. Only UKMET and GEM show a rainy outcome for most. That said, it doesn't LOOK like Bluewave, Nittany or Walt are too confident for accumulating snow for CPK.
  6. EastonSN+
    I THINK the 90s as well, although a lot of those years the entire Continent roasted more volatile).
  7. EastonSN+
    IMO this storm, like December 2020, can be the deciding factor in determining if CPK can end up with above average snowfall for the year. Definitely looks like a potential for a great period like February 2021 is coming by looking at the GEFS/EPS. Agreed it's going to be tough for LI and coastal New Jersey. Central Park still in the game for some accumulation.
  8. EastonSN+
    For us coasties definitely want another tick or two south.
  9. EastonSN+
    Thanks! How is the GEFS looking
  10. EastonSN+
    Yeah, the reason we lost our on last March, last December and two Decembers ago was a trough down to Baja. Night and day. I really want to see the GEFS and GEPS get onboard.
  11. EastonSN+
    Thanks just found in the MA forum....
  12. EastonSN+
    U have the Kuchera?
  13. EastonSN+
    Yup. So happy to actually have something interesting to look at on these models for once.
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah if you want to get more granular. I wanted to show that sometimes it's better to look at the individual members than just the mean. One thing to look at are the dwindling number of lows over Ohio which is down to one. That is a good step.
  15. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the NE forum. See the three camps. All on the table.
  16. EastonSN+
    Yup, but a lot of spread on the GEFS. In the New England forum they posted the individual members with 3 camps. Suppression, perfect and huggers.
  17. EastonSN+
    Once again GEFS looks horrible LR with a deep west coast trough. EPS looks amazing. Canadian kind of in the middle and odd, perhaps due to model spread. Looking at the MJO progression would think the GEFS is more correct. However, that could lead to another good window in February as the MJO circles around. If we can get a moderate event on the next storm, CPK has a decent shot at reaching average snowfall (if GEFS is correct). All in all I think the models are just handling the MJO wave speed differently.
  18. EastonSN+
    This goes to show how much has to go right for an all snow event in the tri state region, and was mostly the case 1970 through 1999. Ukmet and CMC warm and rainy. GFS and Icon cool and snowy.
  19. EastonSN+
    Wouldn't the storm on the west coast act to to push this storm east before it can gain much latitude? Understand if this storm absolutely bombs out and overwhelms the entire flow, but it does not look like that's the case.
  20. EastonSN+
    I don't think he meant the grand finale forever, more the finale of that incredible 2000 through 2018 period.
  21. EastonSN+
    Wouldn't that storm crashing into the SW help kick our storm east before it can get too much latitude?
  22. EastonSN+
    Pretty stark differences between the GEPS and GEFS at the end of their runs.
  23. EastonSN+
    Here is the history for central park. https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:ae0895db-7e85-4c6a-84ea-43574ecab760
  24. EastonSN+
    Yeah. If we can score during this period before the relaxation, then we have a good shot at average snowfall when we get back to the good MJO phases again. If this was just a moderate El nino this winter could have been a great one.
  25. EastonSN+
    The last 4 winters averaged 15.9 inches as CPK. Not good but far better than the 11.125 average from 96/97 through 99/00. 85/86 through 89/89 was close with 15.825 so perhaps a good comparison so far. Agreed 2 under 5 so close together is new, however too early to tell if it's an anamoly or a trend. Let's see what the next few years bring. A lot will depend on how strong the la Nina is next year.
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