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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Does not line up with Upton too well.
  2. EastonSN+
    That is almost exactly what NWS is showing for the CT coast! 1 to 2 right along the immediate shore and 3 to 7 just inland even below the Merritt Parkway.
  3. EastonSN+
    I think Forky had a claim that NAM always has at least one crush job run that is inevitably incorrect
  4. EastonSN+
    Lol coastal CT
  5. EastonSN+
    Nice snow shower passing through!
  6. EastonSN+
    Will be interesting to see the EPS. Especially for the burbs.
  7. EastonSN+
    I think we are generally on the same page, difference is I see this current 5 year stretch as we are in a decadal RNA regime with a global warming background raising our temps by say whatever the current global departure is. 2000 through 2018 with a decadal PNA would still work. Also, 1996 where we were snowing at 18 degrees may be 21 degrees and snowing. Yes, we will lose our 33 and snow from 1972, but the blizzard of 1978 would still be snow IMO and maybe more given the added moisture. Where my view differs than some is I do not think our overall weather structure changed i.e. I do not think we are going to be in a mostly static RNA from here on our. I believe the same patterns persist just increasingly warmer.
  8. EastonSN+
    Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help).
  9. EastonSN+
    Yeah, GFS taken verbatim the CT coast never flips to mix, albeit an above freezing snowfall with low ratios.
  10. EastonSN+
    Borrowed again.
  11. EastonSN+
    Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires.
  12. EastonSN+
    Again borrowed from the NE forum. Enjoy
  13. EastonSN+
    Completely agree. Our second window (this weekend was the first), then as Bluewave alluded to, phase 8 potential for February. All in all though this winter so far has been textbook strong El nino.
  14. EastonSN+
    The cutter is a good thing, helps build/strengthen the NAO block.
  15. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the NE forum (I am technically coastal CT). Not New York but you see some of LI and Hudson river. 10 to 1 so you know the drill about lower ratios.
  16. EastonSN+
    Yeah the northern areas of this sub forum will do good. The 6z euro came in a tad colder per NE forum.
  17. EastonSN+
    That look like a really good call.
  18. EastonSN+
    It's too bad this next storm was JUST too far north, otherwise CPK had a good shot at an above average snowfall winter. Winter Storm Chuck keeps mentioning we are in a decadal RNA pattern. Until that breaks we will need to keep relying on late Jan, February and March to produce. I know Chuck stated decadal, however I think it usually lasts 2 to 3 decades (1970 through 1999), while PNA 1 to 2 decades (2000 through 2018).
  19. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from NY forum
  20. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the MA forum
  21. EastonSN+
    Seeing those lows tightly clustered so close to the coast, couldn't that bring mixing issues into CT, RI and MA?
  22. EastonSN+
    That's a bit close for comfort for the coasties.
  23. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don, I noticed that the EPS intensity is deeper (low). If the high pressure in Canada remains at the current modeled level, would the old "storm makes its own cold air" scenario work here, or would the storm pressure need to be sub 992/rapidly drop?
  24. EastonSN+
    This is a good point, and a reason why it is USUALLY hard to get an all snow event in this region and why our areas yearly average is only approx 30 inches. Look at all other years outside of 2000 through 2018 and 1955 through 1969, very hard to get all snow/KU events on a consistent basis. I remember getting amped up in February 1994 because I was FINALLY getting an all snow event without the risk of sleet! It was ALWAYS cutter, hugger or slider. Also, you can cut the country into three potential trough locations. East coast west coast and central/plains. That's a 1/3 chance right there. In addition, I believe that west coast troughing happens more often through history than east coast. We are in an RNA cycle unfortunately and we will have to thread the needle more often than not. On a positive note, when it does happen it makes it that much sweeter! Getting a 6 inch event in the 80s and 90s was like getting a foot 2000 through 2018. Leaving on another positive note. If it can snow in February 2018 in a sea of 60 and 70 degree days, it can snow this year.
  25. EastonSN+
    Wow! Although kind of shocked that 1984 was the coldest! Would have thought it would have deteriorated YOY since 1950 since we have been warming steadily since before 1950. Could something else have driven the 1984 record? I think one of the METS stated that a way to increase the cold pool is to have a strong of years where the Polar Vortex is consolidated.
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